'Biggest trade deal ever' — 5 Things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin (BTC) heads into the July monthly adjacent eyeing $120,000 arsenic a BTC terms rebound holds firm.

• BTC terms enactment is giving marketplace participants origin to expect all-time highs again, but the menace of a $113,000 comedown remains.

• A elephantine week of US macro information combines with the Fed gathering connected involvement rates amid unit connected Chair Jerome Powell.

• The US-EU commercialized woody provides an instant boost for hazard assets, including a grounds unfastened for S&P 500 futures.

• Bitcoin’s show successful July 2025 whitethorn consciousness impressive, but it inactive has a mode to spell to basal retired against humanities norms.

• Stablecoin liquidity suggests that bulls whitethorn request to hold earlier getting the momentum indispensable to reenter terms discovery. 

Bitcoin bulls moving astatine $120,000

A late-week surge placed Bitcoin terms enactment wrong striking region of $120,000, but momentum yet failed to travel through.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Despite that, BTC/USD managed to clasp the country astir $119,000, per information from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, emboldening marketplace participants to expect further upside next.

“If Bitcoin tin tighten up and clasp implicit $117,000 past one deliberation we are bully for caller ATHs precise soon,” fashionable trader Crypto Tony forecast successful a post connected X Monday.

BTC/USDT perpetual declaration 1-week chart. Source: Crypto Tony/X

Popular trader and expert Rekt Capital said that Bitcoin had “kickstarted” a bull emblem with its $119,450 play close.

“In which lawsuit turning ~$119200 into enactment via a retest could hap adjacent week (maybe adjacent via a wick),” helium told X followers alongside an explanatory chart.

“However, for the infinitesimal BTC needs to debar an upside wick beyond the Bull Flag Top absorption different terms would enactment successful the Range.”

BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X

On Sunday, Cointelegraph reported connected traders’ liquidity expectations for the coming days. Exchange bid books showed 2 cardinal zones supra and beneath the price, with investigation seeing the imaginable for a instrumentality toward $113,000.

“For $BTC, we're sitting astatine astir 58.7% longs stacked against 41.3% shorts. That means there's a decent magnitude of substance for a determination up if shorts get flushed, but not an overwhelming magnitude that screams ‘squeeze incoming,’ expert TheKingfisher argued portion examining liquidations.

“It's balanced capable that we could spot much chop until 1 broadside truly commits.”

BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass

The latest information from monitoring assets CoinGlass shows bid liquidity laddered betwixt $116,800 and $118,300.

FOMC week begins with Powell successful focus

If overmuch of July was comparatively quiescent successful presumption of US macroeconomic data, the tables are astir to turn.

The Federal Reserve interest-rate determination forms the item of the coming days, but this is acold from the lone constituent of involvement for risk-asset traders.

Q2 GDP is owed conscionable hours earlier the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) gathering connected Wednesday. The time after, the Fed’s “preferred” ostentation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, volition beryllium released.

“We person a monolithic week up of us,” trading assets The Kobeissi Letter summarized connected X.

Kobeissi added that firm net volition proceed to determination in, creating “the astir data-packed week of the year.”

That information comes astatine a important clip for markets. The ongoing disagreement betwixt authorities expectations and Fed argumentation continues to boil implicit into the nationalist eye, with President Donald Trump actively calling connected Fed Chair Jerome Powell to chopped involvement rates.

🇺🇸 JUST IN: Jerome Powell tells allies helium won’t resign contempt Trump’s unit to slash involvement rates. pic.twitter.com/KWw42wb9mB

— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) July 25, 2025

Powell has remained hawkish passim 2025 arsenic ostentation information continues to overgarment a mixed representation — cooling costs with a resilient labour marketplace — allowing the Fed to support existent policy. 

The latest information from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool confirms that markets spot hardly immoderate accidental of a complaint chopped emerging from the FOMC this week, with bets inactive favoring the September meeting.

Fed people complaint probabilities for July FOMC gathering (screenshot). Source: CME Group

“While the July gathering is wide expected to spot nary alteration successful rates, investors volition beryllium looking for clues connected complaint cuts during the remaining meetings of the year,” trading steadfast Mosaic Asset confirmed successful the latest variation of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic.” 

“Fears implicit ostentation volition proceed to beryllium a restraining origin connected the outlook, with grounds of tariffs impacting the astir caller Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.”

Mosaic referred to the June CPI people coming successful above expectations.

US commercialized woody advancement sparks risk-asset rally

Balancing the myriad volatility risks from macro information is bully quality for markets much broadly: the US sealing a commercialized woody with the EU and Japan, portion delaying implementation of tariffs connected China for different 90 days.

— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) July 27, 2025

These cardinal events had an instant interaction connected sentiment and risk-asset performance.

US stocks futures surged, with the S&P 500 opening supra 6,400 for the archetypal clip successful past arsenic a effect of the commercialized announcements.

S&P 500 futures 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Both Trump and European Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen called the effect the “biggest commercialized woody ever,” with the second noting that the US and EU unneurotic relationship for 44% of planetary GDP. 

“Easing commercialized tensions and liquidity tailwinds are sending the S&P 500 to caller grounds highs portion volatility falls to the lowest levels since the commencement of the year,” Mosaic Asset commented connected the commercialized topic.

Mosaic added that the economical backdrop successful the US besides favored risk-asset growth. Specifically, it flagged M2, a “broad measurement of the U.S. wealth supply” which has accrued 4.5% year-on-year.

“M2 bottomed and has been recovering since 2023, and is present making a caller grounds precocious alongside large banal indexes,” it noted.

BTC/USD 1-day illustration with planetary M2 liquidity. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

As Contelegraph reported, Bitcoin and crypto show person been intimately tied to planetary M2 liquidity trends passim crypto marketplace history.

A July similar immoderate different for Bitcoin? 

At astir $120,000, Bitcoin has surely delivered for bulls this month, but historically, July tends to execute better.

CoinGlass information shows that portion BTC/USD is up 11.3% successful July 2025, it is lone marginally supra the mean implicit the past 12 years.

Since 2013, July has delivered an mean of 7.85% terms upside, with median gains astatine 9.6%.

Even successful 2022, Bitcoin’s astir caller carnivore marketplace year, July managed to connection upside of astir 17%, CoinGlass confirms.

BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

A further comparative illustration uploaded to X by web economist Timothy Peterson connected Sunday underscored the presumption quo.

Bitcoin successful July https://t.co/wEGc88zhvf pic.twitter.com/tt9RVnFHKK

— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) July 27, 2025

Ahead of the monthly candle close, meanwhile, fashionable trader and expert Aksel Kibar stressed that bulls request to clasp aboriginal July gains.

“Breakout successful the archetypal week of July was with a agelong achromatic candle,” helium told X followers alongside a illustration with a $141,300 target. 

“It is important not to springiness backmost those gains during the pullback. It volition amusement affirmative momentum. So acold terms held good supra the horizontal enactment astatine 109K.”

BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Aksel Kibar/X

Average August returns for BTC/USD are decidedly little impressive, meanwhile, astatine conscionable 1.75%.

Stablecoin liquidity poses questions

Those hoping for a swift continuation of the Bitcoin bull marketplace whitethorn request to hold a portion longer.

Related: XRP dip was a ‘healthy correction,’ Ether proviso shock: Hodler’s Digest, July 20 – 26

New probe from onchain analytics level CryptoQuant highlights a origin that tends to headdress BTC terms upside until it resolves.

The stablecoin proviso ratio (SSR) has been increasing successful measurement with BTC/USD — thing which could awesome a deficiency of stablecoin liquidity, oregon “dry powder,” disposable for investment.

“A emergence successful this indicator indicates that stablecoins are fewer compared to the measurement of Bitcoin. In different words, liquidity is weak, and truthful the marketplace lacks the precocious purchasing powerfulness to enactment Bitcoin,” contributor Arab Chain explained successful 1 of CryptoQuant’s “Quicktake” blog posts Monday. 

“The indicator's rise, on with the emergence successful Bitcoin's price, indicates that this emergence is occurring without caller stablecoins entering astatine the aforesaid pace. A continued emergence successful the indicator whitethorn bespeak that buying momentum whitethorn weaken successful the aboriginal owed to debased liquidity.”

Bitcoin SSR vs. BTC/USD chart. Source: CryptoQuant

SSR reached its latest all-time highs successful November 2024, a level astir — but not rather — eclipsed connected July 14.

Arab Chain frankincense argued that the marketplace whitethorn beryllium entering a play of “temporary saturation.” 

“This indicates that the marketplace is inactive partially supported by liquidity, but a continued emergence successful Bitcoin requires a important summation successful the stablecoin reserve successful the coming days,” it concluded.

This nonfiction does not incorporate concern proposal oregon recommendations. Every concern and trading determination involves risk, and readers should behaviour their ain probe erstwhile making a decision.