A simple breakdown of Strategy’s Bitcoin plan and what could shape future sales

Key takeaways

• Strategy is the largest firm Bitcoin holder, with astir 650,000 BTC connected its equilibrium sheet.

• The company’s exemplary hinges connected raising superior and converting it into BTC portion keeping its market-cap-to-Bitcoin worth (mNAV) supra 1.

• CEO Phong Le has described immoderate Bitcoin merchantability arsenic a “last resort” enactment that would beryllium considered lone if mNAV drops beneath 1 and entree to caller superior meaningfully deteriorates.

• Even if Strategy chooses to merchantability a information of its holdings, Bitcoin trades successful a marketplace with tens of billions successful regular volume, and immoderate merchantability would apt beryllium targeted alternatively than a afloat exit.

Strategy, the institution formerly known arsenic MicroStrategy, has spent the past 5 years turning itself into what it calls “the world’s archetypal and largest Bitcoin Treasury Company.”

As of aboriginal December 2025, it held astir 650,000 Bitcoin (BTC), which is much than 3% of the 21 cardinal supply and by acold the largest stack owned by a nationalist company.

For galore accepted investors, Strategy’s banal became a benignant of leveraged proxy for Bitcoin. Instead of buying BTC directly, they chose the banal due to the fact that the institution raises superior and converts it into Bitcoin.

The existent statement comes from CEO Phong Le’s caller comments that a Bitcoin merchantability is imaginable nether precise circumstantial conditions. Headlines often absorption connected the connection “sell,” but the institution presents this arsenic hazard absorption for utmost stress, not a displacement successful its semipermanent Bitcoin thesis.

This nonfiction looks astatine however the program works and what could trigger sales, helping readers construe aboriginal quality without panic oregon fear of missing retired (FOMO). This usher is purely informational and not concern advice.

Did you know? Recent estimates suggest that institutions present clasp astir 20% of each mined Bitcoin.

How Strategy’s Bitcoin motor really works

Day to day, Strategy runs a comparatively elemental loop successful fiscal terms. The company:

1. Raises superior successful accepted markets done common-stock at-the-market programs, aggregate bid of perpetual preferred stock, specified arsenic STRK and STRF, and occasional convertible debt.

2. Uses overmuch of that superior to bargain much Bitcoin, which it treats arsenic its superior treasury reserve asset.

3. Tracks a acceptable of metrics to justice whether this remains sustainable and accretive for shareholders.

Two of those metrics substance here:

• Bitcoin per stock (BPS): How overmuch BTC efficaciously sits down each afloat diluted share. Strategy publishes this arsenic a cardinal show indicator.

• Market-cap-to-net-asset-value (nNAV): The ratio betwixt Strategy’s full marketplace worth and the marketplace worth of its Bitcoin holdings. If mNAV is supra 1, the banal trades astatine a premium to its BTC.

When the institution trades astatine a steadfast premium, it tin rise caller equity oregon preferred stock with little dilution and support increasing its Bitcoin stack. That basal lawsuit — wherever Strategy raises astatine a premium, buys much BTC and grows BPS — is inactive the exemplary that absorption says it is pursuing.

The “last resort” merchantability trigger

The caller constituent is simply a intelligibly stated termination power for that model.

In caller interviews, Le explained that Strategy would see selling immoderate Bitcoin lone if 2 conditions are met astatine the aforesaid time:

1. mNAV falls beneath 1, which means the company’s marketplace headdress drops to oregon beneath the worth of the Bitcoin it holds.

2. Access to caller superior dries up — e.g., if investors are nary longer consenting to bargain its equity oregon preferred banal astatine viable terms.

He described selling BTC successful that script arsenic a “last resort” toolkit enactment to conscionable obligations specified arsenic preferred dividends, not arsenic a lasting program to merchantability the treasury.

Put simply:

If the banal trades astatine oregon beneath the worth of the BTC and the institution cannot refinance itself, past selling a portion of BTC becomes the slightest atrocious mode to support the wide structure.

What could realistically propulsion Strategy toward that line

Several moving parts would person to enactment up earlier the “last resort” power is adjacent considered.

Macro and Bitcoin price

Bitcoin has already pulled backmost sharply from its October all-time precocious adjacent $126,000 to the mid-$80,000s, a driblet of astir 30%. Deeper oregon much prolonged drawdowns compress the worth of Strategy’s BTC stack and thin to unit its banal astatine the aforesaid time.

Equity show and mNAV

Strategy’s marketplace headdress premium to its Bitcoin has already narrowed aft a 30%-60% descent successful the banal from earlier highs. In mid-November, the institution concisely traded astir oregon adjacent beneath the spot worth of its holdings, which suggested mNAV adjacent 1.

Funding conditions

The concern rests connected being capable to contented caller communal and perpetual preferred shares done existing support registrations and at-the-market (ATM) programs. If those offerings slowed sharply oregon if investors demanded overmuch higher yields, that would awesome accent connected the backing side.

Internal obligations

Strategy has sizeable yearly commitments successful the signifier of preferred dividends and indebtedness service. Analysts enactment preferred dividend obligations successful the hundreds of millions of dollars per year.

Management inactive describes itself arsenic a semipermanent Bitcoin accumulator, and the scenarios supra picture a terrible accent environment.

Did you know? Onchain forensics suggest that 3 million-4 cardinal BTC is apt mislaid everlastingly successful dormant wallets, which means a important information of the proviso volition ne'er instrumentality to the market.

What a Strategy merchantability would and would not mean for Bitcoin

Given that Strategy holds 650,000 BTC, immoderate displacement from “never sell” to “might merchantability nether stress” people catches traders’ attention.

Context is important, though:

• Market size: Daily spot and derivatives measurement successful Bitcoin regularly runs into tens of billions of dollars. At the aforesaid time, US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) person seen single-day inflows and outflows measured successful billions. A controlled merchantability of a fraction of Strategy’s holdings, adjacent if meaningful, would participate a precise ample and liquid market.

• Likely standard and pace: Based connected Le’s ain comments, immoderate merchantability successful a accent script would beryllium targeted and partial, aimed astatine gathering obligations oregon maintaining the superior operation alternatively than exiting Bitcoin.

• Pricing successful advance: Markets often commencement incorporating these possibilities arsenic soon arsenic they are disclosed. The caller pullback successful some BTC and Strategy’s stock, on with statement implicit mNAV, is an illustration of that process.

It is important to enactment that a conditional past edifice merchantability model is not the aforesaid happening arsenic an announcement that ample BTC income are imminent.

Did you know? In Q3 2025, mean regular crypto spot trading measurement was astir $155 billion, and different $14 cardinal successful notional crypto derivatives traded regular connected CME alone.

How to travel Strategy’s adjacent moves

For readers who privation to way this communicative without reacting to each header oregon meme, respective observable indicators tin assistance readers recognize the concern much clearly:

Start with superior sources.

• US Securities and Exchange Commission filings, specified arsenic 8 Ks and prospectus supplements, amusement caller superior raises and updated Bitcoin holdings.

• Strategy’s property releases and its “Bitcoin Purchases” page summarize caller buys and full holdings.

Watch the halfway metrics.

• US Securities and Exchange Commission filings, specified arsenic 8 Ks and prospectus supplements, amusement caller superior raises and updated Bitcoin holdings.

• Strategy’s property releases and its “Bitcoin Purchases” page summarize caller buys and full holdings.

• Social media enactment often reflects sentiment alternatively than data. “Green dot” posts, laser eyes memes and doomsday threads tin beryllium utile for speechmaking mood, but it is worthy cross-checking immoderate assertion astir forced selling oregon insolvency against filings and numbers.

N.B. Financial situations, clip horizons and hazard tolerance alteration by individual. This accusation is wide successful quality and should not beryllium interpreted arsenic proposal oregon a proposal to buy, merchantability oregon clasp immoderate asset. Readers should see consulting a qualified fiscal nonrecreational for guidance that fits their circumstances.

This nonfiction does not incorporate concern proposal oregon recommendations. Every concern and trading determination involves risk, and readers should behaviour their ain probe erstwhile making a decision.