Analysts are watching these Bitcoin price levels ahead of CLARITY Act vote

Bitcoin (BTC) bulls made different effort to reclaim the $80,000 level connected Thursday, arsenic traders expect terms swings earlier and aft the CLARITY Act vote.

Key takeaways:

• Odds of the CLARITY Act being signed into instrumentality successful 2026 roseate to 67% successful May.
• BTC terms indispensable clasp $78,000-$79,000 arsenic enactment for a bullish propulsion to $84,000 oregon higher.

A 67% accidental the CLARITY Act is signed into instrumentality successful 2026

The CLARITY Act, a projected US measure that would acceptable clearer rules for however regulators oversee the crypto marketplace and stablecoins, is scheduled for a Senate Banking Committee markup ballot connected Thursday.

Source: Cointelegraph

Prediction marketplace traders accidental that determination is simply a 67% accidental that the CLARITY Act volition beryllium signed into instrumentality successful 2026, according to Polymarket.

Odds of the CLARITY Act being signed into instrumentality successful 2026. Source: Polymarket

Traders connected rival tract Kalshi price-in the likelihood of the Act becoming instrumentality earlier August and Dec. 31, 2026, astatine 62% and 67%, respectively.

If the CLARITY Act passes, it could intelligibly classify Bitcoin arsenic a integer commodity nether the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversight, reducing ineligible uncertainty for the manufacture and further legitimizing crypto successful the US. 

Related: Bitcoin to $100K successful Q2? Strategy’s STRC unlocks imaginable to bargain 3K BTC successful 2 days

Bitcoin is expected to respond positively, akin to the GENIUS Act signed successful July 2025, which provided the archetypal large US stablecoin framework. Bitcoin was already trading adjacent all-time highs and climbed further amid regulatory optimism.

MN Capital laminitis Michaël van de Poppe was bullish, saying:

“Big time contiguous with the CLARITY Act vote. Might beryllium a humanities time for everyone progressive successful Crypto and could, precise well, awesome the commencement of a stronger cycle.”

Analyst Sharky predicts a muted contiguous pump, with the existent beardown determination coming “90 days later, erstwhile organization wealth yet has ineligible clarity.”

Not each analysts were optimistic astir the event, however, with trading assets Material Indicators saying the passing of the CLARITY Act is “somewhat baked-in to $BTC price,” adding:

“Passing it volition apt present a knee-jerk absorption from the marketplace that pumps terms briefly, but similar each narratives, that rally volition fade.”

As Cointelegraph reported, immoderate traders expect a speedy determination successful Bitcoin terms toward $90,000 pursuing the CLARITY Act vote, supported by improving marketplace conditions and easing selling pressure.

Analysts item cardinal BTC terms levels to watch

Bitcoin whitethorn person delivered an impressive bounce to $82,000 past week, but the bullish sentiment was dampened by absorption from the 200-day moving averages astir this level.

The support astatine $78,000 remains key for bulls, representing the short-term holder realized terms and the existent marketplace mean.

This coincides with the 21-week exponential moving mean (green line), arsenic highlighted by expert Rekt Capital successful the illustration below, saying:

“Downside wicking beneath it would beryllium good arsenic agelong arsenic terms ends the week with a play candle adjacent supra the EMA to corroborate it arsenic retested support.”

BTC/USD play chart. Source: X/Rekt Capital

Bitcoin’s realized terms by property cohorts reveals different large level of enactment sitting further down: the outgo ground of the 1-week-to-1-month capitalist cohort astatine $76,900.

“The momentum of the ongoing rally has been driven mostly by a question of accumulation implicit the past 30 days,” Glassnode said successful its latest Week Onchain newsletter, adding:

“This cohort's outgo ground present sits astatine astir $76.9K, forming the astir contiguous enactment level successful the abbreviated term.”

Bitcoin realized terms by age. Source: Glassnode

On the upside, the outgo ground of investors who accumulated BTC during the November 2025-February consolidation play astatine $86,900 represents the “most probable near-term absorption portion arsenic these holders attack breakeven and look a increasing inducement to administer into strength,” the onchain information supplier added. 

Crypto trader and expert Daan Crypto Trades said a interruption supra $82,000 volition spot BTC emergence to capable the CME spread astatine $84,000, yet “continuing rather a batch higher” from that point.

BTC/USD regular chart. Source: X/Daan Crypto Trades

As Cointelegraph reported, cardinal enactment levels for the bulls were the 20-day EMA astatine $79,000 and the 50-day SMA astatine $74,000, portion bears were expected to support $84,000.