Are Bitcoin ETFs quietly accumulating or just not selling? The flow data that matters

2 hours ago

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are connected way to station a 4th consecutive period of nett outflows arsenic Bitcoin (BTC) approaches a 5th antagonistic monthly adjacent successful February. The slowdown is disposable crossed the shrinking money balances and the bearish rolling nett travel data, particularly erstwhile measured against competing plus ETFs.

With Bitcoin terms and the spot ETF holdings trending little since October, investors are searching for answers connected what the aboriginal whitethorn clasp for BTC.

Bitcoin ETFs predominate headlines

Net assets held successful US spot Bitcoin ETFs peaked adjacent $170 cardinal successful October 2025 and present basal astatine $84.3 billion. The cumulative nett inflows person fallen to astir $54 cardinal from the $63 cardinal all-time high. Since July 2025, cumulative nett flows person totaled conscionable $5 billion, underscoring the crisp driblet successful superior inflows.

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. tracked 7 sessions betwixt Feb. 12 and Feb. 19 and recovered the nett ETF outflows totaled 11,042 BTC. Feb. 12 marked the largest single-day simplification astatine 6,120 BTC, oregon astir $416 million. The Feb. 17 and Feb. 18 sessions saw back-to-back outflows of 1,520 and 1,980 BTC, respectively. Only 2 sessions were positive, with the Feb. 6 league adding 5,900 BTC to the funds.

Cryptocurrencies, Federal Reserve, Bitcoin Price, Adoption, Markets, United States, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Bitcoin ETF, ETF

Adler said that 3 consecutive affirmative sessions are needed to corroborate renewed accumulation successful the ETFs. Until then, the flows proceed to enactment arsenic a root of proviso for the market.

The macroeconomic information align with the cooling trend. The ETFs person shed astir 87,000 BTC since November 2025, including astir 15,000 BTC successful February. The full ETF balances present beryllium adjacent 1.26 cardinal BTC, down from the 1.36 cardinal BTC peak.

The selling unit from the largest BTC funds has been measured. BlackRock’s IBIT holdings declined to 759,000 BTC from 806,000 BTC, a 6% reduction. Fidelity’s FBTC dropped to 186,000 BTC from 213,000 BTC, a 12.6% decline.

Bitcoin terms has fallen acold much sharply than the ETF balances, portion the spot marketplace request has appeared insufficient to afloat sorb the broader marketplace pressure.

Gold steals the spotlight from the BTC ETFs

Over the past 2 years, the Bitcoin and golden ETFs person rotated enactment based connected the 90-day rolling flows. The Bitcoin 90-day inflows peaked adjacent $16 cardinal successful March 2024, cooled to $3 to $4 cardinal betwixt June and October, and past surged to $21.6 cardinal successful December 2024.

The golden ETFs took a antithetic route. The flows stayed antagonistic until July 2024, past accelerated to $30 cardinal by April 2025. During March and April 2025, the Bitcoin 90-day flows slipped to antagonistic $2 billion.

Gold peaked again astatine $36 cardinal successful October 2025, portion the Bitcoin inflows faded into the last quarter. In January 2026, the golden flows reached $29 cardinal earlier easing to $21 cardinal by mid-February arsenic Bitcoin flows remained successful antagonistic territory.

The information amusement a repeated handoff betwixt the 2 assets. The periods of weakening Bitcoin ETF request aligned with the surges successful golden inflows, peculiarly betwixt March and October 2025.

In comparative terms, the golden ETFs captured incremental superior arsenic investors leaned toward the plus with smaller terms swings and the longer way grounds during risk-off phases.

“Restrictive digestion” hits the Bitcoin demand

ITC Crypto laminitis Benjamin Cowen classifies the archetypal 4th of 2026 arsenic a “late-cycle restrictive digestion” signifier for the equities and the crypto markets.

The US Federal Reserve ended quantitative tightening successful December 2025, halting the equilibrium expanse runoff, but the monetary argumentation remains restrictive comparative to the marketplace maturation expectations. The national funds complaint inactive sits supra the 2-year Treasury yield, portion the 10-year output trades adjacent 4.1% and the 10-year existent output holds astir 1.7%–1.8%, keeping the fiscal conditions tight.

The affirmative existent yields mean investors tin gain inflation-adjusted returns successful the fixed income markets, raising the accidental outgo of holding non-yielding assets specified arsenic Bitcoin.

Cowen noted that successful the anterior tightening cycles, Bitcoin terms weakened earlier equities showed stress. In 2019, BTC terms rolled implicit months up of the broader weakness successful equities.

Historically, the durable ETF inflows person followed the falling existent yields oregon a wide easing cycle. Neither information has developed yet, which whitethorn explicate the slowdown successful request for Bitcoin ETFs since October 2025.

This nonfiction does not incorporate concern proposal oregon recommendations. Every concern and trading determination involves risk, and readers should behaviour their ain probe erstwhile making a decision. While we strive to supply close and timely information, Cointelegraph does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, oregon reliability of immoderate accusation successful this article. This nonfiction whitethorn incorporate forward-looking statements that are taxable to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph volition not beryllium liable for immoderate nonaccomplishment oregon harm arising from your reliance connected this information.

View source