Bernstein calls Bitcoin sell-off 'weakest bear case' on record, keeps $150K 2026 target

Bernstein analysts connected Monday maintained their $150,000 people for Bitcoin (BTC) contempt the caller sell-off that they said was being driven by lacking capitalist assurance alternatively than structural stress.

Calling the pullback the “weakest carnivore case” successful the asset’s history, the analysts’ enactment to investors said nary large failures person emerged crossed Bitcoin’s marketplace plumbing, and pointed to comparatively humble 7% nett outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs adjacent arsenic BTC terms dropped by astir 50%.

“The existent Bitcoin terms enactment is simply a specified situation of confidence. Nothing broke, nary skeletons volition amusement up,” analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said.

Weekly BTC ETF flows. Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein analysis

Bernstein said Bitcoin’s caller underperformance comparative to golden reflects its continued attraction arsenic a liquidity-sensitive hazard plus alternatively than a semipermanent harmless haven. The analysts said choky fiscal conditions and elevated rates person favored artificial intelligence-linked equities and precious metals, limiting near-term upside for Bitcoin contempt broader adoption trends.

The study besides pushed backmost connected respective of the emerging hazard narratives, including concerns that artificial quality is diverting superior distant from crypto oregon that quantum computing poses an imminent menace to Bitcoin. Bernstein wrote:

Framing quantum computing arsenic a Bitcoin-killer ignores the timeline, the upgrade way and the information that the full integer satellite shares the aforesaid vulnerability and volition migrate together.

Addressing leverage astatine major firm Bitcoin holders specified arsenic Michael Saylor’s Strategy, Bernstein said the institution relies mostly connected long-dated perpetual preferred equity and maintains capable currency to screen dividends without near-term refinancing risk.

As well, the analysts expect Bitcoin miners to capitulate and merchantability arsenic the terms moves beneath their accumulation cost.

After addressing the prevailing carnivore lawsuit narratives, Bernstein predicted Bitcoin is apt to instrumentality to caller highs arsenic liquidity conditions improve. The institution reiterated its $150,000 Bitcoin terms people for 2026.

Related: BTC traders hold for $50K bottom: Five things to cognize successful Bitcoin this week

Institutions presumption Bitcoin pullback arsenic introduction constituent arsenic traders pass of further downside

On Friday, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley said Bitcoin’s determination beneath $70,000 is being interpreted otherwise crossed the market, with long-time holders showing caution portion organization investors presumption the pullback arsenic a renewed introduction opportunity. 

Speaking connected CNBC, Horsley said institutions are revisiting terms levels they antecedently believed they had missed. He attributed the diminution to broader macro unit alternatively than crypto-specific stress, saying Bitcoin is trading successful enactment with different liquid assets arsenic investors “sell everything that is liquid.”

While Horsley framed the sell-off arsenic a macro-driven reset successful positioning, short-term traders stay cautious astir Bitcoin’s near-term terms trajectory. 

On Sunday, autarkic analysts Filbfilb and Tony Severino highlighted method indicators they accidental inactive awesome further downside, portion different traders argued that a “real bottom” whitethorn not signifier until Bitcoin falls beneath $50,000.

BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Filbfilb/X

Bitcoin reached an all-time precocious of implicit $126,000 connected Oct. 6, but has since fallen to astir $70,000 astatine clip of writing, according to CoinGecko data.

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