Bitcoin (BTC) entered its last week of the twelvemonth down 30% from its $126,000 all-time precocious reached connected Oct. 6. Has BTC yet peaked, oregon is determination a alleviation successful the cards going into 2026?
Key takeaways:
A emblematic "Christmas carnivore trap" could precede a imaginable alleviation rally into 2026.
Cooling ETF outflows, little semipermanent holder merchantability pressure, and macro factors suggest an extended bull rhythm is possible.
BTC’s symmetrical triangle projects a 22% emergence to $107,000.
Bitcoin’s galore bullish signals
Bitcoin’s 2.6% driblet from a precocious of $90,000 reached connected Monday could beryllium a classical “Christmas carnivore trap,” according to expert James Bull.
A carnivore trap is simply a mendacious method awesome wherever terms concisely breaks beneath a cardinal enactment level, triggering sell-offs and stop-losses, lone to rapidly reverse upward, trapping bears (short sellers) successful losses.
Related: Bitfinex whales spell agelong BTC for 2026: 5 things to cognize successful Bitcoin this week
Bitcoin is mounting a “Christmas carnivore trap, which volition beryllium reversed successful January similar successful the past 4 years,” James Bull said successful a Monday station connected X.
Bitcoin caller twelvemonth terms performance; 2022-2025. Source: James BullLooking astatine the astir caller case, the BTC/USD brace dropped 8.5% betwixt Dec. 26 and Dec. 31, 2024, earlier reversing with a 12.5% betwixt Jan. 1 and Jan. 6, 2025.
Fellow expert The ₿itcoin Therapist said that with the 4-year rhythm broken, Bitcoin could emergence to a caller all-time precocious successful the archetypal 4th of 2026, mounting up the “greatest carnivore trap successful history.”
James Bull added that the invalidation of the 4-year rhythm could awesome the extremity of the aged retail-driven boom-bust rhythm amid a changing Bitcoin marketplace structure characterised by growing organization adoption via ETFs and corporate treasuries. This, coupled with macro factors specified arsenic complaint cuts and liquidity, tin propel BTC terms to caller highs successful 2026.
Meanwhile, Citi Group analysts set a 12-month basal lawsuit prediction for Bitcoin astatine $143,000, driven chiefly by “revived ETF demand,” with the bull lawsuit people acceptable astatine $189,000.
Regarding spot Bitcoin ETF flows, James Bull said the outflows person reduced importantly from -1,600 BTC connected Nov. 21 and are present “going toward zero.” The illustration beneath shows that a akin script successful April preceded a 33% terms rally to $112,000 connected May 22. Bull added:
“This isn't a warrant for Bitcoin to spell backmost to ATHs, but it's a beardown signal.”
Spot Bitcoin ETF nett flows. Source: GlassnodeAs Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin selling unit from long-time holders is showing signs of cooling off, reinforcing the imaginable for a January 2025 alleviation rally.
BTC terms symmetrical triangle targets $107,000
Data from TradingView shows the BTC/USD brace consolidating wrong a symmetrical triangle connected the regular candle chart, arsenic shown below.
The terms needs to adjacent supra the precocious trendline of the triangle astatine $90,000 to proceed the upward trajectory, with a measured people of $107,400.
Such a determination would bring the full gains to 22% from the existent level.
BTC/USD regular chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView“Bitcoin forming a symmetrical triangle pattern,” said expert Dami-Defi successful a caller investigation successful X, adding:
“If Bitcoin pushes supra that precocious trendline and holds above, we're apt looking astatine a bullish breakout to those higher absorption levels astir $94K and past up adjacent $106K.”As Cointelegraph reported, a bullish regular adjacent supra $90,000 would spark a caller rally toward six figures.
This nonfiction does not incorporate concern proposal oregon recommendations. Every concern and trading determination involves risk, and readers should behaviour their ain probe erstwhile making a decision. While we strive to supply close and timely information, Cointelegraph does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, oregon reliability of immoderate accusation successful this article. This nonfiction whitethorn incorporate forward-looking statements that are taxable to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph volition not beryllium liable for immoderate nonaccomplishment oregon harm arising from your reliance connected this information.
This nonfiction does not incorporate concern proposal oregon recommendations. Every concern and trading determination involves risk, and readers should behaviour their ain probe erstwhile making a decision. While we strive to supply close and timely information, Cointelegraph does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, oregon reliability of immoderate accusation successful this article. This nonfiction whitethorn incorporate forward-looking statements that are taxable to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph volition not beryllium liable for immoderate nonaccomplishment oregon harm arising from your reliance connected this information.

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