Bitcoin analyst warns of $105K 'danger zone' as open interest stays frothy

1 week ago

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin onchain metrics converge astir $105,000, signaling a hidden hazard zone.
Elevated unfastened involvement keeps BTC’s marketplace operation astatine hazard of abrupt volatility.

Bitcoin (BTC) remains successful a ranging situation connected Wednesday, aft a little retest from the request portion betwixt $112,000-$113,000.

At the moment, BTC is attempting to interruption supra the descending absorption trendline, which could pb to a rally to Monday’s highs astatine $115,700.

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However, crypto expert CryptoMe indicates a imaginable hidden hazard portion for Bitcoin astir the $105,000 level, an country that’s starting to look progressively important crossed aggregate onchain metrics.

Using Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) investigation and realized terms models, the expert outlines cardinal indicators that are converging connected the $105,000–$106,000 region:

UTXO Cost Basis Histogram reveals a important partition astatine $105,644, suggesting precocious onchain accumulation oregon realization astatine this price.
1–3 Month Holder realized terms besides hovers adjacent $106,000, reflecting the mean outgo for mid-term holders.
Short-Term Holder (STH) realized terms aligns intimately astatine $105,350, showing the mean acquisition outgo for BTC held little than 155 days.

Although the information points to a perchance bearish setup successful the abbreviated term, the expert maintains a bullish outlook for Bitcoin implicit the mean and agelong term.

The anticipation of a retest astir $105,000 is viewed arsenic a short-term script that could trigger crisp volatility and airs important risks to leveraged traders successful the derivatives market.

Likewise, information from Glassnode indicates that Bitcoin is successful a precarious presumption beneath $117,000.

According to the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD), important absorption is astir $117,000, wherever 634,051 BTC UTXOs were created, oregon past moved.

Below that level, a wide spread emerges, which stretches down to $108,000 with minimal enactment astatine $113,000. This spread indicates the imaginable for accelerated downside question if BTC loses its existent terms level, reinforcing the anticipation of a travel toward $105,000.

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Elevated OI signals marketplace risks for BTC price

Trading level Hyblock Capital highlights that Bitcoin unfastened involvement (OI) remains elevated astatine $79 billion, suggesting that speculation successful the futures marketplace hasn’t afloat reset.

This keeps the marketplace fragile, particularly with BTC terms undergoing a correction from its $123,000 all-time high.

According to Hyblock, erstwhile OI remains astatine frothy levels portion the Fear & Greed Index enters “Extreme Greed” territory, it historically precedes section tops and corrections.

This pattern, precocious observed connected July 16, led to BTC’s illness to $112,000 from $120,000. The Fear & Greed Index has present reset to Neutral, but precocious unfastened involvement outlines terms uncertainty.

Similarly, Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. says that futures marketplace bearishness peaked astatine –7.5% connected July 29, soon aft BTC deed a caller all-time high. While that unit has since eased somewhat to –5.2%, the structural risks remain.

Adler warns that immoderate abrupt antagonistic catalyst could trigger a cascade of agelong liquidations, rapidly amplifying downside momentum.

This nonfiction does not incorporate concern proposal oregon recommendations. Every concern and trading determination involves risk, and readers should behaviour their ain probe erstwhile making a decision.

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