Bitcoin bears give three reasons why the bull market is over

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin’s bearish MACD transverse and engulfing candle connected the three-week illustration awesome a rhythm top. 

• Market analysts suggest that 558 days post-2024 halving bespeak the Bitcoin bull cycle’s apical is imminent.

• Other analysts accidental BTC terms inactive has country to run, with $180,000 inactive successful the cards.

Bitcoin (BTC) terms traded 3% little connected Thursday and 13% beneath its $126,000 all-time precocious reached connected Oct. 6, with immoderate traders suggesting that this level whitethorn person marked the rhythm apical for BTC. 

Bitcoin technicals suggest “top is in“

Bitcoin’s terms enactment appears to person confirmed a “bearish MACD crossover,” according to 1 crypto analyst, who suggests this could awesome the end of the BTC bull run based connected humanities patterns. 

Related: Fed signals ’end of QT’: What does it mean for Bitcoin price?

There is simply a “pending bearish MACD crossover connected Bitcoin's 3-week chart,” expert Jesse Olson said successful an X station connected Wednesday, adding: 

“The histogram besides shows longer-term bearish divergence.”

The crossover was confirmed erstwhile the moving mean convergence indicator (MACD) (blue wave)— a method indicator utilized by traders to place inclination changes and momentum shifts — moved beneath the awesome enactment (orange wave), arsenic shown successful the illustration below. 

Note that the past 2 times MACD sent this bearish awesome were astatine the tallness of the 2017 and 2021 bull cycles, marking the apical for Bitcoin.

BTC/USD three-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The aforesaid three-week illustration shows the quality of a “bearish engulfing candle” akin to the ones seen astatine the highest of the 2017 and 2021 bull cycles. 

These and “several different warnings suggest that the apical is in,” Jesse Olson said successful different station connected Thursday. 

These see declining web activity, pointing to reduced onchain demand. Data from Nansen reveals that the fig of regular progressive addresses connected the Bitcoin web decreased by 30% successful October, from 632,915 to 447,225. 

Bitcoin progressive addresses. Source: Nansen

A reducing fig of regular progressive addresses signals waning web engagement and little idiosyncratic demand, often preceding terms corrections oregon prolonged consolidation. 

Bitcoin’s imminent rhythm peak

Pseudonymous trader and capitalist Mister Crypto backed the rhythm apical thesis with the assertion that Bitcoin has reached a constituent wherever it “historically peaks out,” based connected its four-year halving cycle.

Looking backmost astatine past Bitcoin halving cycles successful 2012 and 2016, there’s so a akin trend. The terms gradually builds momentum, typically reaching its highest betwixt 518 and 580 days aft the halving event, arsenic illustrated successful the illustration below. 

It has been 558 days since the 2024 Bitcoin halving, which places the BTC marketplace wrong +40 days of the humanities 518-580 time highest window. 

“We are close astir the clip wherever Bitcoin historically peaks out,” Mister Crypto said successful an X post, asking:

“Will this clip beryllium different?”

Bitcoin: Days since past halving. Source: Mister Crypto

Fellow expert CryptoBird said Bitcoin whitethorn lone person a fewer days of terms enlargement near successful the cycle, particularly if it follows historical patterns based connected past halvings. 

In his latest Bitcoin analysis, CryptoBird said Bitcoin is “consolidating earlier an detonation and the apical model is open.”

— CRYPTO₿IRB (@crypto_birb) October 29, 2025

As Cointelegraph reported, immoderate analysts, specified arsenic BitMEX's Arthur Hayes, accidental that the Bitcoin four-year rhythm is dead, arguing that prices are presently driven by monetary argumentation and liquidity, alternatively than halvings. 

Others spot a diminishing halving impact, arguing that a affirmative involvement complaint cycle, institutional adoption done ETFs and Bitcoin treasury companies and maturation arsenic a mainstream asset, which could lead to much upside successful 2026 for Bitcoin. 

Is Bitcoin’s upside truly over?

Apart from those who assertion that the Bitcoin four-year rhythm nary longer determines the duration of the bull run, others judge that BTC still has much country to run based connected method indicators.

Bitcoin has “formed a higher debased and the scope remains intact,” said expert Jelle, referring to BTC’s terms enactment successful the regular clip frame.

“Reclaim the $116K region, and the amusive resumes.”

BTC/USD regular chart. Source: Jelle

Fellow expert Mags said Bitcoin is trading wrong a “bullish megaphone pattern” that has historically led to an upside breakout. 

“A monolithic breakout is loading.”— Mags (@thescalpingpro) October 30, 2025

As Cointelegraph reported, the Bitcoin Mayer Multiple showed that BTC remains person to “oversold” astatine existent levels, suggesting that the $180,000 people is inactive successful play.

This nonfiction does not incorporate concern proposal oregon recommendations. Every concern and trading determination involves risk, and readers should behaviour their ain probe erstwhile making a decision.