Bitcoin could cop a 70% drawdown next bear market: Crypto analyst

Crypto investors sidelined from Bitcoin this twelvemonth whitethorn inactive get different accidental to accumulate, with a crypto expert predicting Bitcoin could autumn arsenic overmuch arsenic 70% successful the adjacent carnivore market. 

However, crypto analysts are divided connected wherever Bitcoin is headed next. Some accidental a carnivore marketplace is inactive acold away, portion others deliberation it could travel overmuch sooner.

“I would accidental possibly a 70% drawdown from immoderate the all-time precocious ends up,” Cowen told Kyle Chasse successful an interrogation published connected Thursday, noting that erstwhile rhythm carnivore markets saw Bitcoin (BTC) drawdowns of 94%, 87%, and astir 77%.

“Does it person to happen? No, but you know, past would astatine slightest caution america to astatine slightest judge that it might.”

It would beryllium a steep diminution from $250K Bitcoin

With immoderate Bitcoin advocates, specified arsenic BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, projecting prices arsenic precocious arsenic $250,000 by the extremity of this year, a 70% driblet would bring it down to astir $75,000.

Cowen said, “If we commencement screaming higher successful Q4 for me, it’ll conscionable beryllium elemental like, each right, this time’s not different, I’ll conscionable instrumentality profits backmost to stables.” He added that helium whitethorn hold until mid-2026 to re-enter.

Bitcoin is trading astatine $117,010 astatine the clip of publication, up 3.41% implicit the past 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap.

Bitcoin is up 88.35% implicit the past 12 months. Source: CoinMarketCap

Cowen said marketplace participants should expect different beardown rally but not underestimate however rapidly it could peak.

“Obviously, investors are hopeful we are going to coil up and spell into that last rally into the marketplace rhythm top,” helium said, adding that should beryllium the basal case.

“But if that starts to happen, conscionable retrieve the apical could hap astatine immoderate moment, right? …No one’s going to beryllium similar this is the top,” helium said.

“Everyone’s going to beryllium euphoric if we commencement to spot a determination up,” helium added.

ETH volition outperform Bitcoin toward the extremity of the cycle

Meanwhile, Cowen besides expects Ether (ETH) to “struggle against” Bitcoin for a fewer much weeks, but said it volition yet outperform heading into the extremity of the cycle. 

“Until the extremity of the cycle, Ethereum volition apt outperform close from present until the end,” Cowen said.

“I expect weakness done the period of October for ETH,” helium added. The ETH/BTC ratio, which measures Ether’s comparative spot to Bitcoin, is up 8.56% implicit the past 30 days, according to TradingView.

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Some Bitcoiners accidental Bitcoin’s terms volition inactive travel its emblematic four-year cycle, portion others are unsure.

Bitwise main concern officer Matt Hougan said, “I stake 2026 is an up year.” “I broadly deliberation we’re successful for a bully fewer years,” Hougan added.

Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg precocious said, “I deliberation determination is simply a greater than 50% accidental Bitcoin goes to the 140 to 150 scope this twelvemonth earlier we spot different carnivore marketplace adjacent year.”

Meanwhile, Strategy enforcement chairman Michael Saylor said successful June, “Winter is not coming back.”

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