Bitcoin defies recent tech stocks sell-off. Are bulls eyeing a $70K rally?

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin futures and options amusement whales inactive similar hedging downside risks arsenic socio-economic risks mount.
• Rising Treasury yields and declines successful AI stocks substance hazard aversion, yet BTC’s spot signals continued decoupling.

Bitcoin (BTC) showed comparative spot implicit the past week, contempt failing to interruption supra $65,500. More importantly, the cryptocurrency has decoupled from accepted markets arsenic investors took profits successful memory-chip makers amid fears of excessive valuations successful the artificial quality sector. Still, judging by Bitcoin’s derivative metrics, apical traders are not peculiarly assured astir a rally toward $70,000.

Bitcoin perpetual futures annualized backing rate. Source: Laevitas

The Bitcoin perpetual futures annualized backing complaint stood astatine a neutral 8% people connected Monday, level from 1 week prior. Excessive request for bullish leverage drives the indicator supra the 12% level, which past occurred connected July 10. It is unclear if Bitcoin traders’ deficiency of optimism is somewhat related to contagion fears from the sell-off successful tech stocks oregon the warfare successful Iran.

Nasdaq-100 futures (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView

The tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 Index dropped beneath 28,800 connected Friday for the archetypal clip successful 5 weeks, portion Bitcoin displayed spot implicit the play and yet broke supra $65,000 connected Monday. Strategy announced a palmy raise of $263 cardinal successful cash by selling communal banal during the anterior week, easing concerns of imaginable Bitcoin merchantability pressure.

Investors became highly anxious astir Strategy’s $1.76 cardinal yearly dividend payout to its preferred perpetual equity shareholders, successful summation to the $2.6 cardinal of convertible indebtedness maturing successful 2028 and 2029. By raising currency reserves to a comfy $3.22 billion, the institution hopes to destruct the uncertainty caused by unrealized Bitcoin losses held successful its equilibrium sheet.

Bitcoin 30-day options delta skew (put-call) astatine Deribit. Source: Laevitas

The Bitcoin 30-day options delta skew stood astatine 13% connected Monday, meaning puts (sell) traded astatine a premium comparative to calls (buy). Under neutral conditions, the indicator should scope from -6% to +6%. Despite the humble betterment from the anterior week’s 19% delta skew, whales and marketplace makers stay reluctant to clasp downside terms exposure.

Bitcoin’s resilience amid AI stocks weakness and accrued hazard aversion

The sell-off successful AI-related stocks has besides caused investors to enactment much risk-averse. The crisp declines successful the shares of IBM, SanDisk, Oracle, ARM, SpaceX and Intel coincided with a rally successful 5-year US Treasury yields. Traders demanded higher returns to clasp authorities bonds, indicating they expect further expansionary monetary measures owed to the ongoing fiscal indebtedness issue.

Gold/USD (left) vs. US 5-year Treasury output (right): Source: TradingView

The US 5-year Treasury output surged to 4.33% connected Monday, up from 4.22% 2 weeks prior. Curiously, golden prices person been successful a downtrend since mid-May, suggesting that nary plus people has been immune to the deteriorating planetary economical maturation outlook and ongoing geopolitical tensions successful the Middle East.

On Monday, US President Trump vowed to retaliate against Iran for a rocket onslaught that killed US soldiers successful Jordan, putting hazard assets connected precocious alert. Bitcoin’s leap to $65,500 strengthens the lawsuit for further decoupling from accepted concern markets amid signs of monetary basal expansion. Despite a deficiency of bullishness successful BTC derivatives markets, a rally toward $70,000 could beryllium ignited by anemic firm earnings, particularly successful the AI sector.