Bitcoin ‘double bottom’ eyes $110K, but CME gap may postpone rally

Key takeaways:

• The Bitcoin treble bottommost signifier whitethorn boost bullish momentum toward $110,000.

• The CME spread adjacent $104,000 could trigger a short-term retracement.

• Stablecoin buildup and short-term holders’ accent hint astatine near-term volatility.

Bitcoin (BTC) staged a textbook treble bottommost signifier implicit the weekend, starring BTC to unafraid a bullish play adjacent supra its 50-week moving average. The enactment coincided with the regular bid artifact betwixt $98,100 and $102,000, wherever BTC repeatedly tested the $100,000 portion earlier rebounding.

Bitcoin four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Following a bullish interruption of operation connected the four-hour chart, Bitcoin present faces absorption adjacent $111,300, a level that could beryllium tested if short-term momentum holds. However, onchain information suggested this beforehand whitethorn not travel arsenic easily.

Glassnode explained that Bitcoin rebounded from the 75th percentile outgo ground adjacent $100,000. The adjacent important hurdle lies adjacent the 85th percentile outgo basis, astir $108,500, a level that has historically acted arsenic absorption during betterment moves. The percentile outgo ground metric measures wherever the bulk of investors acquired their BTC, efficaciously mapping the outgo organisation crossed the market.

Bitcoin outgo ground organisation levels. Source: Glassnode

However, Cointelegraph noted a imaginable liquidity drawback supra $115,000, which aligns with a regular absorption level, with long-side liquidity adjacent $100,000 exhausted.

Additionally, a CME spread betwixt $103,100 and $104,000 remains a cardinal short-term risk. CME gaps hap erstwhile Bitcoin’s play terms question creates a quality betwixt Friday’s closing and Monday’s opening terms connected the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, and these gaps often get “filled” arsenic traders revisit these levels, suggesting BTC whitethorn concisely retrace earlier resuming its uptrend.

Bitcoin CME spread analysis. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

With liquidity and information thinning out, BTC could revisit $101,000–$102,500, retesting the weekend’s one-hour and four-hour bid blocks earlier making a decisive determination higher.

Related: ‘Most hated bull tally ever?’ 5 things to cognize successful Bitcoin this week

Stablecoin spot could signifier short-term BTC outlook

CryptoQuant information indicated the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has plunged from supra 18 earlier this twelvemonth to 13.1, 1 of the lowest levels successful 2025. The driblet indicates rising stablecoin reserves comparative to Bitcoin’s marketplace cap,  a motion of offchain liquidity accumulation awaiting a marketplace signal. 

Over the past month, SSR fell from 15 to 13 portion BTC hovered adjacent $105,000, hinting that buyers are waiting for confirmation earlier deploying capital.

Conversely, crypto expert Darkfost observed a crisp 40% emergence successful short-term holder (STH) inflows to Binance since September, up from 5,000 BTC to 8,700 BTC. With the realized terms for STHs astir $112,000, galore stay underwater and are progressively reactive to short-term volatility. This cohort’s selling unit often precedes mid-cycle shakeouts earlier broader bullish continuations, adding a furniture of short-term instability.

Bitcoin speech inflow STH spent output property bands. Source: CryptoQuant

Related: Bitcoin, ETH ETFs spot $1.7B outflow but whale buying softens the terms impact

This nonfiction does not incorporate concern proposal oregon recommendations. Every concern and trading determination involves risk, and readers should behaviour their ain probe erstwhile making a decision.