1 year ago
Bloomberg ETF analysts raised their likelihood for a spot Bitcoin ETF support aft the caller Grayscale triumph against the SEC.
Bloomberg analysts person raised the probability for an approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded money (ETF) by the extremity of 2023, pursuing a caller Grayscale triumph against the national securities regulator.
In a Aug. 30 station connected X (Twitter), Bloomberg elder ETF expert Eric Balchunas said they person raised the chances to 75% from an earlier 65% — owed to the unanimity and decisiveness astatine which the United States Court of Appeals Circuit reached its determination successful the caller case.
“The judges unanimously repudiated the SEC’s arguments, and the bureau volition conflict to warrant further denials arsenic it faces deadlines,” Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Elliot Stein added successful a abstracted Aug. 30 note.
NEW: @JSeyff & I are upping our likelihood to 75% of spot bitcoin ETFs launching this yr (95% by extremity of '24). While we factored Grayscale triumph into our prev 65% odds, the unanimity & decisiveness of ruling was beyond expectations and leaves SEC w "very small wiggle room" via @NYCStein pic.twitter.com/IyEGmWjuHa
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) August 30, 2023In his ain station connected X, Seyffart added that spot Bitcoin ETF approvals volition apt beryllium a “done deal” by Q4 2024, estimating the support likelihood to person present skyrocketed to 95% by then.
Balchunas added that fixed the caller ineligible and nationalist relations loss, a denial by the SEC volition beryllium “politically untennable.”
Beyond the ineligible loss, determination is besides the PR nonaccomplishment (which matters bc it sets narratives, changes minds). And this got covered acold and wide successful mainstream media incl NYT, WSJ, CNN, AP, ABC & connected and on. We deliberation the ineligible and PR nonaccomplishment volition harvester to marque denial politically untenable. pic.twitter.com/Uarh5CszXC
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) August 30, 2023Related: Grayscale wins the tribunal battle, but what does this mean for a spot Bitcoin ETF?
Over the adjacent 5 days, seven Bitcoin spot ETF applications are owed for a “first deadline” determination by the SEC, including Bitwise, BlackRock, VanEck, Fidelity, Invesco, Wisdomtree and Valkyrie.
Balchunas said helium “wouldn’t beryllium surprised” if the SEC delays these upcoming Bitcoin spot ETF applications.
But the astir apt result volition beryllium that we unexpectedly aftermath up to the SEC giving successful and approving the Bitcoin spot ETFs successful 1 hit, he said.
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