Bitcoin expected to beat stalling US GDP growth trend as Q1 data is released later today

At 08:30 ET today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis is acceptable to merchandise its beforehand estimation for US Q1 GDP, with statement expectations astatine a 0.3% seasonally adjusted yearly rate.

If confirmed, this would people the weakest quarterly people since aboriginal 2022 and opposition starkly with the inflow of implicit $3 billion into spot Bitcoin ETFs past week, reflecting what immoderate marketplace participants construe arsenic a pivot successful superior penchant toward integer assets amid macroeconomic stagnation.

[Editor’s Note: Q1 GDP volition not see tariff interaction arsenic the cut-off day came earlier ‘Liberation Day.’]

GDP forecasts amusement a stark divide. The Atlanta Fed’s Nowcast has called a contraction of 2.7%, portion the Philadelphia Fed’s exemplary projects growth of 2.5%, past updated connected Feb. 14.

US GDP information (Source: TradingView)

Regardless of the last figure, the resistance from the grounds goods-trade shortage is simply a communal diagnostic crossed estimates, with immoderate models attributing up to 1.9 percent points of antagonistic publication to it.

This commercialized shortfall appears to beryllium a delayed effect of tariff front-loading, spurring preemptive imports during the anterior quarter. Inventories are expected to beryllium flat, portion user sentiment continues to deteriorate, hitting a five-year low. Business superior expenditure has besides been curtailed.

Inflationary persistence further complicates the picture. March’s Consumer Price Index roseate 2.4% year-over-year, and the Core PCE index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred ostentation gauge, stood astatine 2.8% successful February.

Interest complaint futures present terms successful implicit 90% probability of a complaint chopped by December. Concurrently, Treasury yields person declined and the dollar has weakened, reinforcing stagflation comparisons with the 1970s arsenic economical maturation stalls and ostentation remains supra target.

Bitcoin macro hedge for 2025?

Bitcoin’s marketplace setup diverges notably from the accepted macro picture. Realized capitalization for the apical integer plus continues to make caller all-time highs, presently astatine $883 cardinal and signaling continued inflows contempt the pullback from January’s terms peak.

Bitcoin realized headdress (Source: CryptoQuant)

Data amusement that astir 20,000 BTC exited exchanges successful the past week, the highest play nett outflow successful 2 years, chiefly driven by whale accumulation of 19,255 BTC. Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs captured $3.4 cardinal successful inflows, the third-largest play intake to date.

BlackRock’s IBIT unsocial recorded $643 cardinal connected April 23, its second-largest single-day inflow.

Volatility metrics suggest a broader improvement successful marketplace structure. Realized volatility has compressed by astir 50% from its 2022 peaks, and the volatility dispersed betwixt Bitcoin and the Nasdaq present sits adjacent rhythm lows.

This compression has lent credence to characterizations of Bitcoin arsenic a maturing plus class, a presumption reinforced by VanEck’s observation that its volatility and co-movement illustration progressively lucifer that of golden alternatively than equities.

The juxtaposition betwixt a near-stalling US system and a record-high cumulative invested outgo successful Bitcoin reflects diverging narratives astir superior preservation.

The commercialized shortage resistance highlights the limitations of a tariff-distorted goods economy, portion Bitcoin’s borderless model offers a contrasting conveyance for planetary allocation.

The backdrop of tepid maturation and elevated ostentation has reopened sermon astir integer assets arsenic imaginable stagflation hedges, peculiarly arsenic ETF request endures contempt recessionary signals.

With large funds from the likes of BlackRock and Fidelity continuing to sorb supply, flows into integer assets amusement resilience that is disconnected from accepted macro indicators.

Market participants present look toward the May 1 Core PCE update and adjacent week’s FOMC determination for further clarity connected complaint trajectory and ostentation conditions.

The station Bitcoin expected to bushed stalling US GDP maturation inclination arsenic Q1 information is released aboriginal today appeared archetypal connected CryptoSlate.