2 months ago
Bitcoin (BTC) is acceptable for turbulent weeks ahead, with predetermination uncertainty, the “Trump trade” narrative, and historically favorable fourth-quarter conditions creating a “perfect storm” for marketplace movement, according to the latest “Bitfinex Alpha” report.
The study said that successful the lead-up to the US elections, Bitcoin has already demonstrated “whipsaw” terms enactment pursuing the 6% correction BTC underwent past week aft approaching $70,000.
Notably, arsenic the predetermination day approaches, Bitfinex analysts expect volatility to intensify, peculiarly fixed the wide held presumption that a Republican triumph whitethorn boost markets portion a Democratic triumph presents much ambiguous implications.
Options markets are besides affected
Option premiums and anticipated regular volatility for the US banal marketplace and Bitcoin are projected to emergence arsenic predetermination results are expected astir Nov. 6 and Nov. 8.
The study added that Bitcoin mightiness acquisition adjacent higher volatility arsenic traders measurement imaginable marketplace shifts tied to the predetermination outcome, particularly if erstwhile US president Donald Trump is predetermination to bureau again owed to his vocally supportive stance toward crypto.
Additionally, the implied volatility (IV) curve reflects heightened anticipation, with Bitcoin’s Nov. 8 onslaught prices suggesting IV levels supra 100 for options with onslaught prices implicit $100,000.
High IV typically drives up enactment prices arsenic sellers request higher premiums to offset the hazard of crisp terms moves. The study suggested that this elevated outgo reflects a cautious sentiment successful the market, which is preparing for important terms swings successful the coming weeks.
Options enactment supports this sentiment. Over the past month, telephone options expiring successful December with an $80,000 onslaught terms person seen notable interest, hinting that marketplace participants are positioning for imaginable terms surges by year-end.
Q4 spot showing signs
Despite caller corrections, Bitcoin shows signs of its imaginable spot successful the 4th quarter, a historically bullish quarter, peculiarly successful halving years. BTC is presently up implicit 30% from September lows, marking a record-breaking 7.29% summation past month, a stark opposition to emblematic September challenges.
Although pre-election jitters whitethorn temper October’s close, humanities fourth-quarter gains, averaging 31.34%, stay a hopeful indicator of bullish momentum. Bitcoin has not posted a bearish 4th fourth successful immoderate halving year.
Additionally, the “Trump trade” effect plays a important relation successful Bitcoin’s existent performance, with macroeconomic factors and rising betting likelihood favoring Trump’s re-election feeding marketplace uncertainty.
The study cited caller information from RealClearPolitics and Polymarket, which places Trump’s triumph probability astatine astir 59% and 64.9%, respectively, fueling an already volatile market.
The station Bitcoin expected to look precocious volatility arsenic ‘Trump trade’ and Q4 seasonality converge – Bitfinex appeared archetypal connected CryptoSlate.
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