Bitcoin hits ‘most bearish’ levels: Is the bull cycle ending?

Bitcoin is entering bearish territory arsenic organization request dries up and cardinal marketplace indicators constituent to a downward phase, according to information from analytics level CryptoQuant.

Bitcoin (BTC) marketplace conditions person turned the “most bearish” wrong the existent bull rhythm that started successful January 2023, CryptoQuant said successful its latest crypto play study shared with Cointelegraph.

CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index has declined to utmost bearish levels of 20/100, portion the BTC terms has fallen acold beneath the 365-day moving mean of $102,000 — a cardinal method level and the final bearish signal marking the commencement of the 2022 carnivore market.

The terms driblet comes amid weakening organization demand, including reduced buying by Bitcoin treasury firms specified arsenic Michael Saylor’s Strategy, on with constricted inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Corporate Bitcoin request tapers off

Even with Strategy’s latest acquisition of 8,178 BTC ($835 million) — its largest acquisition since July 2025 — the bargain remains importantly smaller than galore of its erstwhile large purchases, CryptoQuant’s caput of probe Julio Moreno noted successful an X station connected Wednesday.

“Treasury companies person fundamentally stopped buying, immoderate person adjacent sold portion of their holdings,” Moreno observed, referring to companies similar Metaplanet, whose astir caller BTC acquisition was successful September.

Source: Julio Moreno

In summation to waning firm buying, Bitcoin ETFs person besides been nether pressure, with year-to-date inflows dropping to $27.4 cardinal — 52% beneath last year’s full of $41.7 billion, according to information from CoinShares.

Key marketplace drivers “off the cards”

Addressing the past cardinal marketplace catalysts, CryptoQuant mentioned Donald Trump’s statesmanlike predetermination triumph successful 2024, which pushed Bitcoin supra $100,000 for the archetypal time by aboriginal December.

In 2025, the motorboat of respective Bitcoin Treasury Companies pushed Bitcoin supra $120,000 successful August. “Those catalysts are present gone,” the study states, adding:

“What would beryllium a catalyst beardown capable to reaccelerate Bitcoin request successful 2026? Major developments look disconnected the cards (US Gov Strategic Bitcoin Reserve) oregon highly discounted by the marketplace (Fed lowering involvement rates further).”

The downward inclination perchance aligns with the four-year cycle, echoing erstwhile cycles that lasted 4 years, including 2014–2017 and 2018–2021, CryptoQuant noted, adding that the existent rhythm (2022–2025) is coming to an extremity nether this criterion.

Related: Corporate buying stirs statement implicit Bitcoin’s semipermanent decentralization

“Does this connote a accelerated Bitcoin terms collapse? No. So far, Bitcoin is experiencing a 28% drawdown and has declined towards large enactment levels of $90,000–$92,000,” the study said, adding:

“Even successful carnivore markets, prices tin rally 40%–50% successful the span of a fewer months. However, present that the terms of Bitcoin is beneath its 365–day MA, this level becomes a beardown terms absorption ($102.6K).”

CryptoQuant’s study came hours earlier Bitcoin concisely dipped beneath $90,000 connected Wednesday, with the terms dropping to arsenic debased arsenic $88,400, its lowest terms constituent since April 2025, according to Coinbase. The cryptocurrency has since somewhat recovered, trading astatine astir $91,650 astatine the clip of publication.

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