5 hours ago
Bitcoin’s (BTC) implied volatility (IV) gauge has climbed to a 2.5-month high, accordant with the seasonal trends.
Volmex's bitcoin implied volatility index, BVIV, which represents the annualized expected terms turbulence implicit 4 weeks, has topped 42%, the highest since precocious August, according to information root TradingView.
IV measures the market’s expectations for aboriginal terms swings based connected options pricing. Higher IV suggests traders are anticipating larger terms movements ahead.
The BVIV roseate aboriginal this period alongside an upswing successful BTC's terms and has continued to ascent contempt the latest pullback from the grounds precocious of implicit $126,000 to astir $120,000.
Bullish seasonality
BVIV's humanities information shows that the scale tends to spike astir this clip of year. Both 2023 and 2024 saw important volatility increases successful October, highlighting a recurring seasonal pattern.
CoinDesk Research notes that 2025’s volatility setup intimately mirrors 2023, erstwhile it wasn’t until the 2nd fractional of October that IV began its adjacent large limb higher, rising from an annualized 40% to implicit 60%.
It's the aforesaid for the spot price. Historically, the 2nd fractional of October delivers stronger returns than the first.
According to information from Coinglass, bitcoin has averaged astir 6% gains each week implicit the adjacent 2 weeks, which are among the astir bullish periods of the year. November is typically the champion performing month, historically delivering much than 45% returns connected average.
Expectation implicit the coming weeks is that IV increases from this existent range.
Broader inverse relationship
Since precocious past year, BTC's IV has tended to emergence much often than not during terms pullbacks successful a classical Wall Street similar dynamics. The inverse narration is evident from the persistent downtrend successful IV since precocious past twelvemonth and the broader uptrend successful prices.
As bitcoin matures arsenic an asset, the instrumentality of diminishing returns suggests terms gains volition gradually shrink, and volatility volition besides diminution implicit time. Zooming out, the BVIV exemplary shows a wide semipermanent downtrend successful implied volatility since the metric was archetypal introduced.
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