Bitcoin in ‘capitulation zone’ as traders debate when BTC price will bottom

Bitcoin (BTC) sellers resumed their enactment connected Thursday arsenic the Bitcoin terms turned distant from its intraday precocious of $68,300. Analysts said that Bitcoin remained successful capitulation, which could propulsion the terms lower, perchance reaching a bottommost during the past 4th of 2026.

Key takeaways:

• Multiple onchain indicators suggest Bitcoin is successful heavy capitulation arsenic downside risks remain.

• Long-term holder net-position alteration shows utmost distribution, mirroring past corrections that preceded further downside earlier bottoms.

• Analysts forecast BTC terms to deed a bottommost successful Q4/2026 based connected assorted method and onchain metrics.

Bitcoin’s capitulation persists

Bitcoin’s 46% drawdown from its all-time precocious of $126,000 has near a important information of holders underwater, and information shows they are present reducing their exposure.

Glassnode’s semipermanent holder (LTH) net-position alteration shows that Bitcoin held by these investors implicit 30 days decreased by 245,000 BTC connected Feb. 6, marking a cycle-relative utmost successful regular distribution. Since then, this capitalist cohort has been reducing its vulnerability by an mean of 170,000 BTC, arsenic shown successful the illustration below.

Related: Binance teases Bitcoin bullish 'shift' arsenic crypto sentiment hits grounds low

Similar spikes successful LTH nett presumption alteration appeared during the corrective phases successful 2019 and mid-2021, starring to BTC terms consolidating earlier extended downtrends.

Bitcoin semipermanent holder nett presumption change. Source: Glassnode

CryptoQuant information shows that Bitcoin’s MVRV Adaptive Z-Score (365-Day Window) has fallen to -2.66, reinforcing the strength of the sell-side pressure.

“The existent Z-Score speechmaking of -2.66 proves that Bitcoin remains persistently successful the capitulation zone,” CryptoQuant contributor GugaOnChain said successful a Thursday Quicktake post, adding:

“The indicator suggests that we are approaching the humanities accumulation phase.”

BTC: MVRV Adaptive Z-Score (365-Day Window). Source: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin’s Realized Profit/Loss Ratio is astir to interruption beneath 1, levels that person historically aligned with “broad-based capitulation, wherever realized losses outpace profit-taking crossed the market,” Glassnode said. 

Bitcoin Realized Profit/Loss Ratio. Source: Glassnode

Analysts accidental Bitcoin volition bottommost retired toward the extremity of 2026

According to aggregate analyses, Bitcoin could widen its downtrend, perchance reaching arsenic debased arsenic $40,000 to $50,000 during the past 4th of the year.

The “final capitulation on $BTC is inactive ahead,” Crypto expert Tony Research said successful a caller station connected X, adding:

“My instrumentality is, $BTC volition bottommost astatine $40K–50K, astir apt forming betwixt mid-September and precocious November 2026.”

BTC/USD play chart. Source: Tony Research

Fellow expert Titan of Crypto said that erstwhile carnivore cycles successful 2018 and 2022 printed their lows 12 months aft the bull marketplace top. 

Bitcoin’s existent all-time precocious of $126,000 was reached connected Oct. 2, 2025. 

“If this rhythm follows the aforesaid rhythm, that puts the debased astir October,” the expert added.

On-Chain College shared a illustration showing that Bitcoin’s Net Realized Loss levels deed utmost levels astatine $13.6 cardinal connected Feb. 7, levels past seen during the 2022 carnivore market. 

“The 2022 nonaccomplishment highest occurred 5 months earlier the existent carnivore marketplace bottommost was printed,” the expert said, suggesting that BTC could signifier a bottommost successful July 2026.

Bitcoin nett realized profit/loss, USD. Source: Checkonchain

As Cointelegraph reported, galore analysts expect 2026 to beryllium a carnivore marketplace year, and assorted forecasts foretell the BTC terms dropping to arsenic debased arsenic $40,000.