Bitcoin in limbo: Watch these BTC price levels to watch ahead of FOMC

3 weeks ago

Key takeaways:

Fed interest-rate chopped likelihood this week are present little than 3%, according to Polymarket.
BTC terms whitethorn driblet arsenic debased arsenic $112,000 if cardinal enactment levels are broken.

Bitcoin (BTC) terms remained level connected Wednesday astatine $118,200, arsenic traders adopted a wait-and-see attack amid increasing macro uncertainty.

97% accidental involvement rates unchanged

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) two-day gathering started connected Tuesday with the argumentation determination connected the involvement complaint expected connected Wednesday astatine 2:00 p.m. ET.

Market participants expect the Federal Reserve to permission rates unchanged, contempt pressure from President Donald Trump to little rates.

Polymarket sees a 97.5% accidental that the existent involvement rates volition stay betwixt 4.25% and 4.50%, and conscionable a 2.3% probability of a 0.25% complaint cut.

However, a communal marketplace content is that immoderate bearish terms enactment from unchanged involvement rates is already priced in.

Traders appeared to “panic sell” connected Tuesday arsenic uncertainty grows astir Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s code aft the meeting, said crypto capitalist TedPillows.

“People apt dumped their bags successful fear. But they’ll astir apt extremity up FOMO buying backmost successful astatine higher prices aft the Fed speaks,” the expert added, explaining that it is simply a acquainted signifier that has historically preceded beardown moves successful August.

“Then August hits, everything goes parabolic. And the sidelined traders? They extremity up chasing, again.”

Therefore, the marketplace volition keenly ticker Powell’s connection astatine the FOMC quality league to spot if determination is immoderate displacement successful tone.

“Investors volition beryllium listening precise cautiously to the Fed chair, and a dovish posture tin power the market,” said markets commentator James DePorre successful an X station connected Wednesday.

“The chopped matters, but Powell’s words astatine the property league are much important,” OptionsTrading101 told their X followers connected Tuesday.

Traders are besides looking to Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls study arsenic good arsenic a fig of Trump tariff deadlines and however they volition interaction the crypto market.

What’s adjacent for Bitcoin price?

Currently, $120,000 is the cardinal level traders are watching for Bitcoin. Multiple analysts judge that a precocious measurement propulsion done supra this absorption opens the doorway for a swift determination to caller all-time highs.

“A confirmed breakout beyond this portion could displacement marketplace dynamics, bringing the $141K portion into focus,” Glassnode said successful its latest “Week Onchain” report.

The $141,000 level matches 2 modular deviations supra the STH realized price. As shown successful the illustration below.

Glassnode added:

“This is an country wherever cardinal onchain metrics suggest profit-taking could sharply intensify.”

Another level to ticker is $125,000, which represents the STH outgo ground pushed 1 modular deviation higher.

On the downside, traders should support an oculus connected Bitcoin’s STH outgo ground astatine $105,400 and the yearly unfastened astir $93,000, which appears to coincide with the STH outgo ground pushed 1 modular deviation lower.

Meanwhile, a illustration shared by fashionable expert Killa suggests the $114,000-$116,000 arsenic a cardinal country of interest, arsenic the BTC terms could driblet beneath it to capable the just spread worth to $112,000 earlier recovering.

— Killa (@KillaXBT) July 30, 2025

Similarly, SuperBitcoinBro, an anonymous BTC analyst, highlights that Bitcoin could expanse down to arsenic debased arsenic $112,000 archetypal earlier a “squeeze higher” with the adjacent large liquidity clump betwixt $119,800 and $121,000.

Nebraskangooner, different fashionable Bitcoin analyst, says that BTC terms volition stay successful scope “until Powell speaks to marque a large move.”

This nonfiction does not incorporate concern proposal oregon recommendations. Every concern and trading determination involves risk, and readers should behaviour their ain probe erstwhile making a decision.

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