Bitcoin is discounted near its ‘realized’ price, but analysts say there’s room for deep downside

There are aboriginal signs of the "dust settling" successful the crypto marketplace present that investors judge that the worst of the Terra (LUNA) illness looks to beryllium over. Viewing Bitcoin's illustration indicates that portion the fallout was wide and rather devastating for altcoins, BTC has really held up reasonably well. 

Even with the May 12 driblet to $26,697 marking the lowest terms level since 2020 aggregate metrics suggest that the existent levels could correspond a bully introduction to BTC. 

BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

The pullback to this level is notable successful that it was a retest of Bitcoin’s 200-week exponential moving mean (EMA) astatine $26,990. According to cryptocurrency probe steadfast Delphi Digital, this metric has historically “served arsenic a cardinal country for anterior terms bottoms.”

BTC/USD vs. 200-week EMA vs. 14-week RSI. Source: Delphi Digital

And it wasn’t conscionable Bitcoin that had a unsmooth time connected May 12. The stablecoin marketplace besides saw its highest level of volatility and deviation from the dollar peg since the commencement of the Terra saga, with Tether (USDT) experiencing the largest deviation among the large stablecoin projects arsenic shown successful the illustration beneath from blockchain information supplier Glassnode.

Stablecoin prices during Terra's meltdown. Source: Glassnode

All 4 of the apical stablecoins by marketplace headdress person managed to instrumentality to wrong $0.001 of their dollar peg, but the assurance of crypto holders successful their quality to clasp has decidedly been shaken by the events of the past 2 weeks.

Related: Do Kwon summoned to parliamentary proceeding pursuing UST and LUNA crash

Bitcoin approaches its realized price

As a effect of the marketplace pullback, the terms of Bitcoin is present trading the closest it has been to its realized terms since 2020.

Bitcoin realized price. Source: Glassnode

According to Glassnode, the realized terms has historically “provided dependable enactment during carnivore markets and has provided signals of marketplace bottommost enactment erstwhile the marketplace terms trades beneath it.”

Previous carnivore markets saw the terms of BTC commercialized beneath its realized terms for extended periods of time, but the magnitude of clip has really decreased each rhythm with Bitcoin lone spending 7 days beneath its realized terms during the carnivore marketplace of 2019-2020.

Days Bitcoin spent beneath its realized terms during erstwhile carnivore markets. Source: Glassnode

It remains to beryllium seen if BTC volition autumn beneath the realized terms should the existent carnivore marketplace conditions persist, and if so, however agelong it volition last.

On-chain information shows that galore crypto holders couldn’t defy the temptation of acquiring Bitcoin beneath $30,000, resulting successful a spike successful accumulation opening connected May 12 and continuing done May 15, but immoderate analysts caution against taking this arsenic a motion that a accelerated betterment volition hap from here.

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) May 13, 2022

This sentiment was echoed by Delphi Digital, which noted that “the longer we spot terms physique successful these areas, further continuation becomes much likely.”

Delphi Digital said,

“In the lawsuit this happens, look for the pursuing levels: 1) Weekly operation and measurement operation enactment astatine $22,000-$24,000; 2) 2017 all-time precocious retests of $19,000-$20,000.”

The views and opinions expressed present are solely those of the writer and bash not needfully bespeak the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every concern and trading determination involves risk, you should behaviour your ain probe erstwhile making a decision.