Bitcoin may avoid historic bear market losses as ETF flows grow, says analyst

Bitcoin (BTC) is presently down 36% from its all-time precocious astatine $126,000, but 1 expert claims that BTC’s 4th carnivore marketplace has “materially decoupled” from erstwhile bearish cycles, owed to exchange-traded money (ETF) inflows and firm BTC accumulation.

Bitcoin ETF flows and treasury buys whitethorn bounds further downside

Bitcoin Bond Company CEO Pierre Rochard compared Bitcoin’s drawdowns crossed erstwhile marketplace cycles and said the existent correction looks antithetic from the past carnivore markets. The 2013–2015 rhythm wiped retired astir 85% of Bitcoin’s value, portion the 2017–2018 and 2021–2022 cycles saw declines of astir 77% earlier the terms bottomed.

The existent dip has been comparatively smaller. Bitcoin fell to astir $60,000 from its all-time precocious adjacent $126,000, marking a diminution of astir 52%.

Bitcoin drawdown investigation crossed antithetic marketplace cycles by Pierre Rochard. Source: X

Rochard explained that Bitcoin ETFs person go a caller root of request implicit the past 2 years. US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs person recorded cumulative nett inflows of much than $59 cardinal since launch, including $4.5 cardinal since March.

Corporate Bitcoin buying has besides picked up. Strategy accrued its Bitcoin holdings to 818,869 BTC from 640,031 BTC successful October 2025, adding astir 179,000 BTC. The company’s mean acquisition terms is astir $75,543.

Strategy BTC holdings. Source: bitcointreasuries.net

According to Rochard, ETF investors and firm treasury firms are present providing accordant request that did not beryllium during the 2018 and 2022 carnivore markets.

MN Capital laminitis Michaël van de Poppe agreed that the existent marketplace situation nary longer resembles the 2022 cycle. Van de Poppe said,

“The astir overcrowded thesis close present is that Bitcoin makes a carnivore emblem and that we're going to bottommost retired successful October '26.”

Van de Poppe pointed to respective factors that marque this rhythm different, including caller Nasdaq highs astatine 29,372 connected Monday, the upcoming legislative ballot connected the CLARITY Act, discussions astir a strategical Bitcoin reserve, and the assignment of a caller Federal Reserve chair.

Related: Bitcoin backing rates crook positive: Is BTC rally to $85K next?

BTC retail request starts recovering

Crypto expert MorenoDV noted that Bitcoin precocious flashed its archetypal “early bull” awesome since March 2023 utilizing CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle indicator. The indicator tracks whether the marketplace is shifting toward a bullish oregon bearish signifier by analyzing terms momentum and moving averages.

Bitcoin bull-bear marketplace rhythm indicator. Source: CryptoQuant

MorenoDV said akin signals appeared successful 2019 and aboriginal 2023 earlier Bitcoin rallied 1280% and 461%, respectively. However, the latest awesome inactive needs stronger terms confirmation. MorenoDV said,

“Several different marketplace metrics are already showing signs of exhaustion. That makes this awesome little cleanable than a classical early-cycle confirmation.”

Onchain information besides showed signs that smaller investors are returning to the marketplace aft enactment dropped passim April. Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. tracked the 30-day alteration successful Bitcoin transaction measurement from wallets holding betwixt $0 and $10,000, which is often utilized to measurement the retail capitalist participation.

Bitcoin retail capitalist demand. Source: Axel Adler Jr

The metric dropped to -8.2% connected April 5 earlier recovering into affirmative territory aboriginal successful the month. It reached 6.31% connected May 6 and remained adjacent 4.38% connected May 12 portion Bitcoin traded astatine $80,625.

The retail transportation measurement accrued somewhat to $351 cardinal from $336 cardinal successful mid-April. However, Adler Jr. said the enactment remains beneath February levels, erstwhile volumes ranged from $365 cardinal to $375 million. 

As Cointelegraph reported, determination are expanding signs that the aboriginal stages of a caller bull marketplace are underway.

Related: Strategy resumes Bitcoin acquisitions with $43M BTC buy