2 years ago
Greetings from the heavy future! It is artifact tallness 4,830,001, and we person conscionable had an interplanetary 23rd halving party.
This nonfiction primitively appeared successful Bitcoin Magazine's "Moon Issue." To get a copy, visit our store.
BLOCK HEIGHT: 4,830,001
(c. Year 2100 successful aged terminology)
Greetings from the heavy future! It is artifact tallness 4,830,001, and we person conscionable had an interplanetary 23rd halving party. It is the twelvemonth 2100, oregon arsenic we present cognize it, the twelvemonth 91 AB (After Bitcoin). Luckily for each of you, clip question has been discovered, and I tin stock the bully quality with each of you! The archetypal fractional of the 21st period was beset by fiscal crises, war, poverty, inequality, biology demolition and a COVID-19 pandemic, which caused planetary rolling lockdowns for implicit a decade, until the illness of the planetary fiat system necessitated a determination distant from “lockdownism,” profligate spending and inflation, and a instrumentality to monetary and economic, and hence, environmental, sustainability. To start, I’ll springiness you a decade-by-decade look astatine however we arrived astatine our halving party.
While the world’s large economies were engaged destroying themselves successful the 2020s, astute wealth started migrating to Bitcoin, which created tremendous opportunities for Bitcoin miners, starring to much miners entering the market, expanding competition, and importantly, dramatically expanding innovation. By the extremity of 2029, each semi-industrial Bitcoin miner successful the satellite was utilizing low-energy cooling technologies, with conscionable 1 40-foot instrumentality afloat of immersed and overclocked mining rigs capable to supply 5 megawatts (roughly one-third of an exahash) of portable, profit-generating electrical load, anyplace connected the planet. By the extremity of the 2030s, each of the world’s flared state was piped into Bitcoin containers, and customers were recovered for each of the world’s curtailed energy. Inflation was going astatine astir 20% a twelvemonth since the clip you’re speechmaking this, truthful the $5.65 Big Mac you ate successful 2021 would acceptable you backmost astir $300 successful 2039. Luckily for you, bitcoin was worthy $5,000,000, and fiat decease was lone astir a decennary distant astatine this point. Unfortunately for billions of radical connected Earth, however, wage ostentation was lone 2%, and galore hundreds of millions of radical died owed to famine and scarcityinduced struggle and societal illness successful impoverished locations waiting for the fiat strategy to illness nether its ain value successful 2050. Anyone who saved immoderate sats during the 2020s and 2030s were themselves saved erstwhile economical judgement time arrived.
Further, the 2030s and 2040s saw the Bitcoin mining manufacture being the go-to purchaser of archetypal edifice to beryllium distant atomic fusion, solar, wind, hydroelectric and geothermal projects. While fusion had famously been “30 years away” for a period astatine that point, acknowledgment to Bitcoin, fusion was yet proven by 2049. Thanks to Bitcoin, a sustainable vigor gyration took place, and humanity yet succeeded wherever planetary governments and agencies similar the United Nations (UN) and World Economic Forum (WEF) failed consistently connected their targets for respective generations. The extremity of the 2040s was marked by mega-mergers betwixt the world’s largest publically listed vigor companies, semiconductor plan and manufacturing companies, and Bitcoin mining, user merchandise and work companies.
In 2050, these quadrillion-dollar mega entities could plan and physique their ain ASICs, mass-manufacture them, excavation astatine ample standard with vigor they produced, and besides connection customers the afloat suite of Bitcoin hardware, bundle and fiscal services. There were astir 10 of these planetary megacorps that served astir 80% of the market, with a booming open-source ecosystem of thousands of private, free, decentralized options serving the different 20% of the market. Competition successful the Bitcoin mining abstraction astatine this constituent was summed up arsenic perfectly cut-throat with nett margins approaching zero, wherever the lone mode to stay live was by competing connected either outgo oregon innovation.
With the terms of bitcoin successful 2050 being astir $10,000,000, and present lone increasing astatine astir 3% per annum owed to its maturity and marketplace saturation, silly novelties similar carnal metals person been wholly demonetized. That $300 Big Mac you ate successful 2039 was a chill $1,000 now, too. While golden was performing powerfully astatine $10,000 per ounce successful 2040, astir 10 Big Macs, astute investors were increasing impatient inactive holding golden implicit bitcoin aft missing 1,000,000% upside implicit the past 30 years. People started becoming offended astatine being offered jewelry alternatively of satoshis.
As a result, by 2050, gold, and each different “precious” metals were selling by the tonne alternatively than the gram oregon ounce, which allowed humanity to instrumentality vantage of the occurrence of gold, silver, platinum and others arsenic gathering and concern materials. Previously prohibitively costly technologies and innovations were unlocked owed to plummeting worldly costs. Due to gold’s circumstantial durability and anti-radiation properties, we could yet look to space. While astir radical were accustomed to a 10 Gbit/s net transportation successful 2050, 1 Mbit/s outer net was escaped and ubiquitous astir the satellite by then.
While the Bitcoin blockchain was present astir 3 terabytes successful size, the mostly Bitcoin-driven gyration successful semiconductor manufacturing meant that you could beryllium up and moving with your ain synced up Bitcoin afloat node for the outgo of a Big Mac. The Bitcoin-driven vigor gyration besides meant that “at-home” fusion reactors were present lone 30 years distant from proving retired astatine this time. The EU, U.S. and China person collapsed, alongside the UN, and determination are present 2,000 autarkic states, that vie for the world’s champion endowment done liable policy. War is not imaginable nether a finite monetary system, and satellite bid has been achieved.
“We take to spell to the satellite successful this decennary and bash the different things, not due to the fact that they are easy, but due to the fact that they are hard.” A 100 years connected from JFK’s celebrated code and respective of the world’s escaped autarkic states person established bases connected the moon. Due to the sheer magnitude of satellites and relays successful space, satellite miners were not astatine a ample disadvantage, and each vigor not dedicated to terraforming the satellite is going toward Bitcoin mining. On Earth, 25% of the world’s vigor is dedicated to mining bitcoin, and owed to the mostly Bitcoin-driven aggravated contention successful the vigor markets, regular radical efficaciously had entree to precise low-cost, if not free, energy. By the extremity of the 2070s, nary 1 connected satellite Earth was without vigor oregon electricity, and it’s each inexpensive and clean, acknowledgment chiefly to Bitcoin. The vigor gyration enabled unprecedented opportunities for idiosyncratic sovereignty and self-sufficiency, and large advancements successful 3D printing and materials implicit the past fractional a period has made the “Star Trek replicator” imagination 1 measurement person to reality. Who ended up “building the roads”? Thanks to the Bitcoin monetary stack, micro and nano payments enabled a roadworthy web wherever users tin wage competing backstage roadworthy operators for roadworthy use, adjacent successful “per metre traveled” increments, and adjacent let payments betwixt vehicles themselves. This whitethorn dependable unusual but paying a fewer other sats for each of your services inactive ends up being far, acold cheaper than suffering done ostentation and paying income, income and onshore taxes.
The 2080s and 2090s saw a fairer planetary wealthiness organisation than that presented by Credit Suisse successful its "2021 Global Wealth Report.” Back then, the apical 1.1% of the colonisation held 45.8% of planetary wealth, with the adjacent 11.1% holding different 39.1%, and the bottommost 55% lone owning 1.3%. Now, the apical 1% lone clasp 20% of the wealth, with the bottommost 80% holding a acold healthier 20%. Although this isn’t needfully “equal,” this is acold much successful enactment with earthy powerfulness laws (i.e., “the 80-20 rule”). Indeed, with the ending of the fiat delusion of “finite resources, infinite money” and the market- and society-distorting signifier of wide wealth printing, humanity was capable to instrumentality to a much earthy path. In the aged fiat days, the apical 1% could gamble, get bailouts from the authorities if the stake went sour, and disconnected to the casino they went again. Now, the radical who merchantability oregon walk their bitcoin cognize conscionable however hard they are to gain back. Once it’s spent, it’s spent forever. No reprints. Importantly, with terraforming of the satellite good underway, and Mars besides becoming a tourer destination, the world’s radical were culturally acceptable to usher successful a caller period of reaching for the stars.
And yet we get to now, the twelvemonth 2100. There are inactive 10 megacorps that supply 80% of the mining hash rate, products and services, but nary of the 10 megacorps that were astir successful 2050 are inactive successful business. Competition is truthful fierce that it is improbable that the existent harvest of Bitcoin megacorps volition past this century. The world’s affluent are present mining astatine location connected their ain fusion mini-reactors, and at-home mining is mostly liable for 20% of the hash rate. A 3rd of the world’s vigor is dedicated to mining, and the world’s grid is emissions free. Of enactment is that humanity present uses a afloat 50 times much vigor than we did a period agone — each clean. Although radical mostly cognize what Bitcoin is, determination are present truthful galore layers and abstractions, bitcoin is conscionable “money” to Earth- and moon-bound people. Almost nary individuals usage baselayer Bitcoin to transact, and precise fewer adjacent usage Layer 2 either, with astir radical utilizing Layer 3 oregon supra for day-to-day activities. Unfortunately though, the velocity of airy is excessively slow, and Bitcoin’s 10-minute artifact clip is excessively fast, for bitcoin to beryllium an effectual wealth crossed the full universe. The Martians person bootstrapped their ain section proof-of-work-based monetary system, and a steadfast UnEx (universal exchange) Market is forming. Although we inactive person different 40 years oregon truthful earlier the mining reward ends, the “not capable interest revenue” hazard failed to materialize. Base-layer blocks are full, 24/7, conscionable nether a cardinal transactions per day, with each of these cardinal transactions themselves settling hundreds of thousands of different transactions per time connected higher layers. While a base-layer transaction costs the equivalent of $1,000 successful 2021 money, the full worth settled per transaction is person to $10 million, making the effectual interest complaint 0.01%.
Some parting proposal from heavy into the future: Take bully attraction of your keys and clasp onto them for beloved life. Now it's clip for maine to caput backmost to the future. I person a luncheon day with my grandfather, The Friar himself, astatine a fighting-fit 114 years old, who's caller retired of infirmary with a caller acceptable of 3D-printed stem-cell lungs. He's connected his 2nd 3D-printed heart, and 3rd 3D-printed liver — indeed, HODLing was not easy.
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