Bitcoin mispricing deepens as BTC trades below $100K, but not for long: Bitwise

Bitcoin’s (BTC) existent trading behaviour reflects 1 of its deepest macroeconomic disconnects successful years, with planetary liquidity surging portion BTC continues to lag down wealth proviso maturation and gold’s grounds performance. A caller study from Bitwise suggested this spread whitethorn beryllium mounting up a important asymmetric accidental successful Bitcoin heading into 2026.

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin is presently undershooting the planetary wealth proviso by 66%, implying a model-based just worth adjacent $270,000.

• Gold has taken the bulk of 2025’s monetary-dilution bid and present overshoots planetary M2 by 75%.

Global liquidity turns, but Bitcoin hasn’t followed yet

A caller variation of the Bitwise Monthly Bitcoin Macro Investor study argued that the underlying situation for Bitcoin is acold much bullish than its existent terms action. Global liquidity is present firmly pivoting toward reflation: the US is issuing astir $1.9 trillion successful Treasurys per year, preparing $2,000 stimulus checks, and the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening (QT) programme ended connected Dec. 1.

Macro Indicator signals against Bitcoin growth. Source: Bitwise

At the aforesaid time, Japan is rolling retired a $110 cardinal stimulus package, Canada has restarted quantitative easing (QE), and China has approved a monolithic $1.4 trillion fiscal initiative. With much than 320 planetary complaint cuts executed successful the past 24 months, planetary M2 has surged to a grounds $137 trillion.

Against this backdrop, Bitwise highlighted 1 of the largest valuation gaps successful Bitcoin’s history. According to the firm’s cointegration model, BTC is presently undershooting the planetary wealth proviso by astir 66%, implying a model-implied just worth adjacent $270,000. This disconnect translated into a hypothetical upside of astir +194% if Bitcoin reverts to its semipermanent liquidity anchor.

Bitcoin vs Global Money Supply integration exemplary by Bitwise. Source: Bitwise

Simply put, Bitcoin is undervalued comparative to the standard of planetary monetary expansion, a dynamic that matters due to the fact that BTC historically served arsenic the astir delicate barometer for monetary dilution owed to its implicit scarcity, arsenic noted successful the report. 

Bitcoin is owed for beardown risk-adjusted returns against gold

Director of Global Macro astatine Fidelity Jurrien Timmer said that Bitcoin’s inclination setup presently trails golden crossed momentum and Sharpe ratio metrics, placing the 2 assets astatine “polar opposites.” 

The Sharpe ratio measures however overmuch instrumentality an plus generates comparative to its volatility, meaning golden is presently delivering stronger risk-adjusted show than Bitcoin. While not yet signaling a reversal, Timmer framed this widening divergence arsenic a perchance compelling mean-reversion setup.

Bitcoin momentum and Sharpe ratio. Source: Jurrien Timmer/X

Zooming out, Timmer noted that Bitcoin remains broadly aligned with its semipermanent power-law adoption curve contempt its drawdown beneath $100,000. As BTC matures with constricted parabolic returns, Timmer addressed BTC arsenic “gold’s precocious younger sibling increasing up”, inactive structurally strong, conscionable little volatile.

Related: Bitcoin’s deficiency of terms spot owed to sheepish spot buyers: What happens next?

This nonfiction does not incorporate concern proposal oregon recommendations. Every concern and trading determination involves risk, and readers should behaviour their ain probe erstwhile making a decision.