Bitcoin price action, investor sentiment point to bullish December

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Bitcoin (BTC) entered the caller period with a statistical headwind it has ne'er overcome: each clip November ended successful the red, BTC struggled to crook bullish successful December. Yet this year’s operation looks materially different, with momentum, liquidity rotation, and rhythm deviations pushing against what has been a 100% bearish seasonal setup.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Binance, Price Analysis, Market Analysis

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin’s bearish December play could alteration with reduced leverage, and terms reclaiming a cardinal method level, hinting astatine a much unchangeable setup.
Macroeconomic liquidity and M2 velocity are diverging from Bitcoin’s buying activity, which is usually seen successful the mediate stages of a bull market.
Bitcoin’s rhythm operation has evolved, with spot ETF inflows and planetary liquidity dynamics altering the accepted halving-based cycles.

Seasonality breakers and the lawsuit of rhythm deviation for BTC

Bitcoin returns successful Q4 person agelong reflected beardown seasonality, with a anemic December show typically pursuing a antagonistic November. Yet marketplace operation has somewhat diverged sharply from past cycles successful 2025.

BTC’s terms has returned supra its monthly rolling volume-weighted mean terms (rVWAP) levels, signalling controlled organisation and high-timeframe inclination adoption. A important driblet successful unfastened involvement from $94 cardinal to $60 cardinal has normalized oregon reset the marketplace without sidesplitting spot inflows, creating a cleaner basal for continuation.

From a method standpoint, heavy liquidity clusters person migrated from November’s downside liquidation, totalling astir $1 cardinal adjacent $80,000, to the upside inefficient clusters. At the moment, $3 cardinal successful cumulative abbreviated positions would beryllium liquidated astatine $96,000 and implicit $7 cardinal erstwhile BTC hits $100,000.

Thus, these factors bash suggest that December could beryllium mispriced comparative to its humanities probability curve of Bitcoin’s performance.

Still, the existent momentum tin beryllium deceiving. Cointelegraph noted that the taker buy/sell ratio adjacent 1.17 showed urgency, not depth, and often appeared erstwhile positioning is crowded. Anonymous marketplace expert EndGame Macro said that it reflected assertive buys but not needfully sustainable accumulation.

Simultaneously, M2 velocity has flattened, signaling that the broader economical motor whitethorn beryllium losing momentum adjacent arsenic hazard assets proceed to agelong higher. This creates a setup emblematic of precocious market-cycle phases, wherever markets get louder portion the underlying system gets quieter.

Against this backdrop, Bitcoin’s effort to found its first-ever greenish December aft a antagonistic November becomes a trial of whether positioning tin overpower broader marketplace fundamentals.

A alteration beyond the accepted halving clock

Over the past fewer months, analysts person argued that a four-year rhythm for Bitcoin does not afloat explicate BTC’s existent marketplace structure. Crypto expert Michaël van de Poppe noted that the four-year rhythm hasn’t disappeared, but it nary longer aligns cleanly with time-based expectations.

Spot BTC ETF inflows person introduced a constant, structural bid, accelerating terms find and raising Bitcoin’s effectual level compared with earlier cycles.

Van de Poppe argued that this rhythm resembles an extended liquidity phase, akin to mid-2016 oregon precocious 2019, erstwhile hazard assets strengthened contempt uneven macroeconomic data.

Supporting indicators, specified arsenic the CNY/USD correlation with ETH/BTC, typically crook higher aboriginal successful expansionary windows, not adjacent marketplace rhythm peaks.

Meanwhile, business-cycle signals, specified arsenic the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), are dilatory improving, alongside gold's comparative strength, suggesting that hazard appetite is rebuilding from cyclical lows alternatively than weakening. Van de Popped added,

“Now, if we harvester the concern rhythm strength/weakness with Bitcoin cycles, past again, the correlation is rather clear. This signifier is comparable to Q1/2 2016, Q4 2019. We're obscurity adjacent a apical connected Bitcoin, and we're inactive successful the last casual rhythm of crypto with exorbitant returns.”

In this context, Bitcoin’s December setup depends little connected repeating humanities seasonality and much connected whether caller structural forces, specified arsenic spot ETF inflows, liquidity rotation, and shifting macroeconomic correlations, outweigh older halving-driven cycles.

This nonfiction does not incorporate concern proposal oregon recommendations. Every concern and trading determination involves risk, and readers should behaviour their ain probe erstwhile making a decision. While we strive to supply close and timely information, Cointelegraph does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, oregon reliability of immoderate accusation successful this article. This nonfiction whitethorn incorporate forward-looking statements that are taxable to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph volition not beryllium liable for immoderate nonaccomplishment oregon harm arising from your reliance connected this information.

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