Bitcoin Price Eyes $96.7K as ETF Demand and Spot Volume Rise

Bitcoin Price Clears Key Cost Bases arsenic $14B Options Expiry Hits

Bitcoin’s latest rally is opening to look antithetic from the short-lived rebounds that defined overmuch of 2026.

The largest crypto plus by marketplace headdress has moved backmost supra respective important capitalist outgo bases aft a astir $10,000 beforehand implicit the 10 days. More importantly, holders are not rushing to merchantability into the recovery.

Onchain information from Glassnode shows that bitcoin’s terms ne'er closed beneath its Realized Price during the downturn. The percent of proviso held successful nett fell to levels comparable with 2022, yet Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) remained positive.

That operation suggests the marketplace suffered important accent without reaching the capitulation conditions seen successful erstwhile crypto winters.

Source: Glassnode

$96,700 Emerges arsenic Bitcoin’s Next Major Test

The adjacent situation is overhead supply.

A important attraction of long-term-holder coins sits astir $84,000 to $85,000, creating a earthy country wherever investors whitethorn see taking profits arsenic bitcoin’s price moves done their outgo basis.

Beyond that zone, the mean MVRV terms adjacent $96,700 stands retired arsenic the adjacent large onchain absorption level.

The encouraging awesome is that nett realization remains subdued. Even with astir each short-term holders present backmost successful profit, selling remains astatine lone a fraction of the levels recorded astir the 2024 and 2025 marketplace peaks.

Spot request is besides improving. Trading measurement has much than doubled from its August low, portion ETF buying has strengthened alongside rising prices and broader enactment crossed aggregate exchanges.

That matters due to the fact that rallies backed by spot buying thin to transportation a antithetic hazard illustration from moves dominated by derivatives leverage.

$14 Billion Bitcoin Options Expiry Resets the Derivatives Map

The contiguous marketplace trial comes from 1 of the largest derivatives events of the quarter.

Around 167,000 Bitcoin options contracts, carrying astir $14.04 cardinal successful notional value, expire connected Sept. 25, according to Greeks.live. The contracts person a put-call ratio of 0.87 and a maximum-pain level of $79,000.

The expiry represents astir 32% of full bitcoin options unfastened interest.

Another 789,000 ether options worthy astir $2.1 cardinal are besides expiring, representing astir 40% of ETH options unfastened interest.

Dealer positioning has been heavy concentrated astir $84,000 up of settlement. After expiry, gamma vulnerability is expected to displacement higher, with greater attraction supra $90,000.

Options positioning could truthful amplify moves betwixt existent levels and astir $92,000, portion perchance creating much absorption arsenic bitcoin’s terms approaches $95,000.

Spot Demand Matters More Than Leverage From Here

The broader crypto marketplace is besides participating successful the recovery, with altcoins rising crossed the board. Yet traders person added comparatively small leverage compared with the standard of the move, different perchance constructive sign.

Implied volatility has recovered from past week but remains comparatively contained. Greeks.live besides noted that overmuch of the enactment astir expiry has progressive traders rolling positions alternatively than making assertive directional bets.

That leaves bitcoin’s terms astatine an important modulation point.

The $84,000-$85,000 proviso zone is being challenged, profit-taking remains controlled, and organization request is improving. If spot and ETF buying proceed absorbing supply, past the market’s attraction could progressively displacement from the mid-$80,000 scope toward $90,000, $95,000, and yet the $96,700 MVRV level.

The options expiry whitethorn make short-term noise. The much important question is whether existent request remains aft it clears.