Bitcoin price in ‘late’ maturity phase: Is the bull market close to ending?

Key takeaways:

• BTC’s 700% rally from $15,500 to $124,500 suggests a marketplace apical successful 2 to 3 months, based connected past cycles.

• Bitcoin proviso successful nett has been elevated for 273 days, signaling a imaginable rhythm highest soon. 

• Bitcoin risks dropping into the $90,000-$100,000 scope if the intelligence enactment astatine $110,000 is lost.

Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling to reclaim $114,000 connected Thursday, arsenic a convergence of onchain metrics signals waning bullish momentum and a classical setup for a marketplace precocious successful its cycle. 

The Bitcoin marketplace is nearing a rhythm top

Bitcoin has had an unthinkable show implicit the past 3 years, rising arsenic overmuch arsenic 700% to an all-time precocious of $124,500 past week from a rhythm debased of $15,500 reached successful November 2022.

When compared with past cycles, this show suggests that BTC terms is astir 2 to 3 months distant from the rhythm top, according to marketplace quality steadfast Glassnode. 

Related: Bitcoin analysts constituent to ‘manipulation’ arsenic BTC terms falls to 17-day low

In its latest Week On-chain report, Glassnode said:

“In some the 2015–2018 and 2018–2022 cycles, the all-time highs were reached astir 2–3 months beyond wherever we are successful the existent cycle, by comparative timing.”

Bitcoin terms show from rhythm lows. Source: Glassnode

As of Aug. 21, astir 91% of each Bitcoin were successful profit, and person remained supra the +1 modular deviation set for much than 273 days successful the existent cycle, arsenic shown successful the illustration below. This makes it the second-longest connected record, down the 2015–2018 rhythm astatine 335 days. 

This implies that the contiguous rhythm has delivered a comparable duration to that which has preceded rhythm tops successful anterior cycles. 

BTC: Supply successful nett oscillator (days supra +1SD). Source: Glassnode

When considered against the backdrop of the waves of onchain profit-taking implicit the past 2 years, the information reveals a similarity to erstwhile rhythm tops 

Analyzing the cumulative nett realized (in BTC terms) by semipermanent holders (LTHs) — investors who person held Bitcoin for astatine slightest 155 days — from the constituent of reaching a caller rhythm all-time high, until the last highest of the cycle, revealed that LTHs person realized much nett than successful anterior cycles. 

Such heightened levels of profit-taking by LTHs, comparable to past euphoric phases, adhd “another magnitude done the lens of sell-side pressure,” Glassnode explained, adding:

“Taken together, these signals reenforce the presumption that the existent rhythm is firmly successful its historically precocious phase.”

BTC: Cumulative LTH realized profit. Source: Glassnode

Popular crypto expert Rekt Capital said that if Bitcoin is going to highest successful its bull marketplace based connected humanities halving cycles, that would beryllium successful mid-September/mid-October 2025.

“That’s lone 1-2 months away.”

Bitcoin terms rejected astatine $114,000 

On Wednesday, Bitcoin bounced powerfully from the $112,000 enactment level, but the terms was rejected astatine $114,000, strengthening the lawsuit for further downside.

This level “needs to beryllium convincingly mislaid for BTC to spell lower,” said expert Rekt Capital successful an X post, adding:

“A play adjacent comparative to $114K volition besides beryllium key.”

Below it, the $112,000–$110,000 portion remains untested successful the latest drawdown, aligning with the 100-day elemental moving average. 

If Bitcoin faces deeper pullbacks, this portion could service arsenic a “great bargain opportunity,” according to MN Capital laminitis Michael van de Poppe.

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) August 21, 2025

For now, bulls are required to aggressively support the $110,000 to $112,000 zone, to debar a instrumentality into the $100,000 to $90,000 range, according to Daan Crypto Trades.

“Anything little and I deliberation the operation is going to beryllium looking a spot weak.”

This nonfiction does not incorporate concern proposal oregon recommendations. Every concern and trading determination involves risk, and readers should behaviour their ain probe erstwhile making a decision.