Bitcoin price may hit $24K if US stock market crashes by 50%, analyst warns

Bitcoin (BTC) could tumble by implicit 60% to nether $24,000 successful 2026, according to method expert Jesse Olson, if the banal marketplace experiences a large crash.

Key takeaways:

• A US banal marketplace clang of implicit 50% whitethorn accelerate BTC's sell-off.
• Negative Coinbase premium and persistent ETF outflows hint astatine de-risking among organization investors.

Bitcoin illustration flags $23,980 worst-case downside target

In a Sunday post, Olson shared a two-week Bitcoin illustration showing BTC perchance falling toward $23,980, based connected a semipermanent volume-weighted enactment enactment from his proprietary Market Sniper Pro VWAP indicator.

BTC/USD two-week terms chart. Source: TradingView/Jesse Olson

The yellowish enactment connected the illustration represents a customized mentation of anchored volume-weighted mean terms (aVWAP), a instrumentality traders usage to way the mean terms of an asset, weighted by volume, from a circumstantial starting point.

In Bitcoin’s case, Olson appears to person anchored the enactment from the 2022 carnivore marketplace bottom, allowing it to slope guardant arsenic a imaginable semipermanent enactment zone.

Olson presented the $23,980 level arsenic his base-case Bitcoin forecast successful a terrible macro sell-off, wherein the banal marketplace drops by implicit 50%. The benignant of accent Olson warns astir is already being flagged by seasoned marketplace observers.

For instance, GMO co-founder Jeremy Grantham has called the ongoing AI marketplace boom a large speculative bubble. While Michael Burry has compared the existent rally to the last stages of the Dot-com mania.

Related: Arthur Hayes dumps HYPE, NEAR arsenic helium warns of AI IPO wave

Economist Gary Shilling has besides warned that a US recession is “almost inevitable” by year-end, with stocks astatine hazard of a 20%–30% decline.

BTC often trades similar a high-risk plus during marketplace stress. A heavy stock-market sell-off could unit investors to chopped crypto exposure, turning Olson’s $23,980 level into a cardinal downside level to watch.

Bitcoin organization request remains weak

Another bearish awesome comes from the Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks Bitcoin’s terms spread betwixt Coinbase and Binance.

A affirmative premium usually points to stronger US organization demand, portion a antagonistic speechmaking suggests weaker nonrecreational buying oregon heavier selling connected Coinbase.

In Bitcoin's case, the scale has mostly remained antagonistic truthful acold successful 2026, showing that organization buyers are inactive not stepping successful with conviction.

Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index vs. price. Source: CryptoQuant/Darkfost

Spot Bitcoin ETFs are showing a akin trend. Since May, the US-based funds person recorded $4.68 cardinal successful nett outflows, according to SoSoValue data, reflecting weaker request from nonrecreational investors and different ETF buyers.

US Bitcoin ETF nett flows. Source: SoSoValue

"These investors don’t enactment similar retail," said Darkfost, a CryptoQuant-associated on-chain analyst, successful a Sunday post, adding:

"They run nether imperishable hazard absorption logic, they’re not looking to bargain a imaginable bottom, they’re looking for confirmation, for performance. And that’s not the lawsuit yet."

In the past, aggregate analysts, including Galaxy Digital's Alex Thorn and pseudonymous trader Crypto Kid, person said Bitcoin could diminution beneath $30,000 successful the lawsuit of a banal marketplace crash.