Bitcoin price may still drop 40% after FTX 'Lehman moment' — analysis

1 year ago

Bitcoin (BTC) saw a caller rejection astatine $17,000 connected Nov. 18 arsenic tense markets weathered more FTX fallout.

BTC gets $12,000 terms target

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD failing to flip $17,000 to enactment — a inclination successful spot for astir a week.

The pair, similar large altcoins, remained firmly tied down by acold feet implicit the FTX debacle and its knock-on effects for assorted crypto businesses.

For analysts, the outlook remained conscionable arsenic grim, with already dismal forecasts worsening successful airy of caller events.

“This underperformance of each crypto assets is present to enactment until the bulk of uncertainly has cleared up - apt lone adjacent the crook of the caller year,” trading steadfast QCP Capital wrote successful its latest circular to Telegram transmission subscribers connected the day.

In an extended marketplace summary, QCP wrote that its terms forecasts for some Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) present had to driblet to bespeak the interaction of FTX.

Updating a prognosis based connected Elliott Wave mentation from June, it confirmed BTC/USD present had a people of $12,000 and ETH/USD $800.

“As a side-note, crypto markets person been trading akin to commodities ever since the 2017 apical - with extended Wave 5s arsenic the longest wave,” the station added.

“Hence specified imaginable terms enactment with caller lows into the caller twelvemonth would beryllium diagnostic of erstwhile carnivore marketplace sell-offs.”

An accompanying illustration highlighted the divergence betwixt crypto and stocks successful November, correlation betwixt them firmly shaken acknowledgment to crypto’s underperformance.

Popular trader and expert Cantering Clark meantime noted that if the existent carnivore marketplace successful hazard assets were to transcript the Global Financial Crisis, dense losses were inactive to come.

“The Lehman bankruptcy was the climax of the 2008 fiscal crisis. It was bottommost worldly qualitatively, but the marketplace paused and past committed to 40% lower,” portion of a tweet read.

“Never accidental never, and don't fto your defender down.”

As Cointelegraph reported, $13,500 has besides go a fashionable downside target.

Crypto pastry "being chopped massively"

Continuing, QCP besides voiced concerns implicit declining volumes and unfastened involvement (OI) crossed some centralized (CEXes) and decentralized (DEXes) exchanges.

“So far, CEX derivative speech volumes person been astir affected. Combined futures OI is present backmost to pre-2021 levels, a monolithic backward measurement for the industry,” it wrote.

On the taxable of DEXes, it said the information “implies the full crypto pastry is being chopped massively.”

“Overall DeFi TVL is present little than 1/4 past year's peak!” the station summarized alongside much explanatory charts.

“Even DEXes which would beryllium expected to summation the most, person lone seen volumes emergence to Jul/Aug levels, adjacent with each the exigency token/stables/chain swapping that needed to beryllium done post-FTX.”

The views and opinions expressed present are solely those of the writer and bash not needfully bespeak the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every concern and trading determination involves risk, you should behaviour your ain probe erstwhile making a decision.

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