Bitcoin price rally to $19.5K prompts analysts to explore where BTC price might go next

After Bitcoin (BTC) deed a yearly precocious of $19,501 connected Jan. 13, wherever is it headed next?

Bitcoin is presently witnessing an uptick successful bullish momentum aft the positively perceived Consumer Price Index (CPI) study was followed by a beardown rally crossed the crypto market. 

The caller rally successful Bitcoin is creating accrued measurement levels and higher societal engagement connected whether the terms is successful a breakout of fakeout mode.

Is the Bitcoin carnivore marketplace over?

While the marketplace is inactive technically successful a carnivore marketplace compared to past week, capitalist sentiment is improving. According to the Fear and Greed Index, a crypto-specific metric that measures sentiment utilizing 5 weighted sources, investors’ feelings astir the marketplace deed a monthly high.

Bitcoin Fear and Greed index. Source: alternative.me

Bitcoin terms is present approaching the psychologically important $20,000 level and galore analysts and traders are issuing their thoughts connected wherever BTC terms could caput next.

Let’s research a fewer of these perspectives.

Bitcoin trading volumes stay a concern

Bitcoin terms has yet to retrieve from its pre-FTX levels, but reached supra $19,501 connected Jan. 13 for the archetypal clip since Nov. 8, 2022. Despite the spot of the caller rally, immoderate analysts judge BTC terms needs to scope $21,000 earlier the existent bullish inclination tin beryllium sustained.

According to Glassnode analysis,

“A renewed bullish inclination that started connected January 1st drove bitcoin to the $18.6 - $18.9k level, yet a transverse implicit to $19k is indispensable to assertion a caller trading transmission astir $19-$21k. Resistance is expected astir these levels arsenic bitcoin faces a mid-term downward trend. If the terms fails to interruption implicit the inclination line, we expect a retrace toward the $16-$17k area.”

BTC terms compared to volume. Source: Glassnode

The deficiency of trading measurement astir $18,000 shows the weakness successful the existent on-chain and centralized speech (CEX) activity. The largest volumes and wide enactment look to situation the $16,000 level, suggesting that is simply a much coagulated level than the existent terms range. With little measurement surrounding levels higher than $20,000, Bitcoin’s rally could beryllium capped astatine $20,000.

Is it conscionable a carnivore marketplace rally?

Bitcoin is inactive facing headwinds including massive speech layoffs successful a tightening macro economy, Gemini and Genesis ineligible issues and the imaginable constitution of a US House crypto-focused subcommittee.

In addition, Bitcoin’s comparative spot scale (RSI) is presently showing BTC arsenic overbought. According to RSI analysis, a crisp downtrend whitethorn signifier arsenic the terms corrects.

Bitcoin RSI. Source: TradingView

The macro markets are besides astatine large absorption levels. The United States Dollar scale (DXY) is astatine cardinal enactment which means hazard assets similar Bitcoin whitethorn commencement to spot a sell-off if the scale recovers. Bitcoin remains correlated to equities and the SPX mini futures scale is besides showing signs of a pullback.

TraderSZ explains below:

$BTC - immense absorption here...dxy astatine cardinal support...ES looking similar it could pullback abit, eth astatine macro mid range...been up lone each week truthful could get immoderate nett taking/pullback....arrow would beryllium my trigger IF it follows program pic.twitter.com/6JziAmBywH

— TraderSZ (@trader1sz) January 12, 2023

With Bitcoin investors taking profits arsenic suggested by TraderSZ, it whitethorn beryllium pugnacious for BTC to scope higher levels.

Historical investigation points to a caller Bitcoin bottom

Bitcoin is presently beneath its 200-week moving mean and according to autarkic marketplace expert Rekt Capital, Bitcoin terms whitethorn person already deed its macro bottommost according to humanities data. Historically the “Death Cross” level shows a $23,500 bottom.

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) January 13, 2023

While traders and method investigation are not known for accurately predicting however agelong a bull oregon carnivore marketplace mightiness last, autarkic marketplace expert HornHairs cited humanities information from 2015 to estimation however agelong it volition instrumentality for Bitcoin to deed a caller all-time high.

The bull marketplace from 2015 to 2017 lasted for 1064 days, matching with the 2018 to 2021 bull marketplace which lasted the aforesaid fig of days. If traders lucifer the carnivore marketplace that followed betwixt 2017 to 2018 and 2021 to the existent market, it would instrumentality 1,001 days until Bitcoin reaches a caller all-time high.

— HornHairs (@CryptoHornHairs) January 12, 2023

Despite the existent conditions and the spot of the existent terms breakout, Bitcoin has proven galore method analysts incorrect successful the past. Risk-averse traders mightiness see keeping an oculus retired for accrued trading measurement astatine higher prices arsenic an indicator of whether Bitcoin is yet backmost successful a bull market.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed present are the authors’ unsocial and bash not needfully bespeak oregon correspond the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.