Bitcoin price risks decline below $80K as fears of ‘MSTR hit job’ escalate

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing caller downside risks arsenic a deepening standoff betwixt firm Bitcoin holder Strategy (MSTR) and planetary scale supplier MSCI collides with a weakening method structure.

Key takeaways:

• BTC risks a descent toward $77.4K if the carnivore emblem breaks down.

• Strategy–MSCI tensions adhd organization unit to an already fragile setup.

Bull emblem setup risks sending BTC terms to $77.4K

As of Wednesday, Bitcoin has consolidated wrong a carnivore flag, a short-lived betterment that typically forms aft a crisp sell-off and often resolves with a inclination continuation.

The operation suggests sellers are regrouping alternatively than exiting positions, particularly arsenic BTC continues to commercialized beneath its declining 100-day and 200-day exponential moving averages.

BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: TradingView

A decisive breakdown beneath the flag’s little trendline would corroborate the bearish continuation setup, opening the doorway for a measured determination toward the $77,400 level.

Conversely, BTC could invalidate the bearish outlook if its terms breaks decisively above the 50-4H exponential moving mean (50-4H EMA; the reddish wave) astatine astir $88,655, arsenic good arsenic the flag’s precocious trendline astir $90,000.

Source: X

Is Strategy the people of a “hit job”?

Beyond technicals, Bitcoin’s downside could beryllium triggered by increasing uncertainty astir Strategy, 1 of the largest firm holders of BTC, arsenic MSCI reviews whether to exclude companies whose integer assets relationship for a bulk of their equilibrium sheets.

MSCI’s pending decision, expected by Jan. 15, 2026, could present a caller furniture of organization hazard conscionable arsenic Bitcoin’s terms operation weakens, according to CryptoQuant writer GugaOnChain.

Related: Strategy and Bitcoin supporters telephone for ‘boycott’ of JP Morgan

“If MSTR is excluded from indexes specified arsenic MSCI, billions successful automatic income of its shares by passive funds would beryllium triggered,” helium wrote successful a Tuesday post, adding:

“Although the nonstop interaction would autumn connected MSTR, the crypto marketplace would construe this arsenic a motion of organization onslaught connected the company’s Bitcoin accumulation strategy.”

MSTR-to-BTC reserve ratio. Source: CryptoQuant

JPMorgan besides warned that if Strategy is excluded from MSCI indexes, passive funds tracking those benchmarks could beryllium forced into billions of dollars successful equity sales.

Analyst Adrian accused JPMorgan of moving a “MSTR deed job” to unit investors into its ain Bitcoin-focused leveraged concern products. He wrote successful an X post:

“They are trying to termination $MSTR to technologist a migration to their products for Bitcoin leverage exposure.”

Amid increasing MSCI-related uncertainty, Strategy has moved to reassure markets astir its fiscal resilience if Bitcoin’s downturn deepens.

In a Nov. 26 statement, the institution said that adjacent if Bitcoin falls to its mean outgo ground of astir $74,000, it would inactive support a 5.9 times plus sum comparative to its convertible debt, a metric it refers to arsenic its “BTC Rating” of debt.

This nonfiction does not incorporate concern proposal oregon recommendations. Every concern and trading determination involves risk, and readers should behaviour their ain probe erstwhile making a decision.