Bitcoin price wedged into ‘most divided’ FOMC as Iran war spikes oil prices 8%

Bitcoin (BTC) whipsawed astir $64,000 connected Wednesday arsenic geopolitical and macroeconomic tensions pressured US stocks.

Key points:

• Bitcoin constricts adjacent $64,000 arsenic traders contend with aggregate macro headwinds.
• Downside successful Asian stocks continues to spill implicit into US markets.
• The US Federal Reserve prepares to merchandise its adjacent interest-rate decision, a imaginable risk-asset volatility catalyst.

Risk-asset hurdles heap up up of FOMC meeting

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD halting a section rebound astatine the Wall Street open, having deed 11-day lows of $62,700 the time prior.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

These came arsenic portion of a risk-asset rout by a selloff successful Asian chip-stocks. This inclination continued connected Wednesday arsenic markets showed expanding interest implicit the indebtedness obligations by semiconductor and AI giants.

Renewed nerves implicit escalation successful the US-Iran warfare added to the headwinds, with US President Donald Trump threatening a “beating” arsenic tit-for-tat strikes continued.

“We’ll beryllium hitting them hard. They’re going to get a beating,” helium said successful an interview with Fox News.

Oil prices snapped higher arsenic a result, with WTI and Brent crude up 7.6% and 5.4%, respectively. Oil-price hikes could importantly interaction trends successful the Consumer Price Index (CPI), with ostentation concerns having a knock-on effect connected interest-rate expectations.

CFDs connected US WTI crude lipid one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Markets are awaiting the effect of the Federal Reserve’s latest decision connected the national funds rate. The July gathering of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) volition see a connection and property league by Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh. Though Warsh has fixed little guidance than his predecessor, traders volition ticker for cues to aboriginal argumentation shifts.

Commenting, trading assets The Kobeissi Letter noted divided opinions arsenic to the Fed’s determination connected rates. The latest information from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed 66.3% likelihood of existent levels of 3.5%-3.75% remaining successful place, with a 0.25% hike attracting 33.7%.

“Market expectations for tomorrow’s Fed determination are among the astir divided successful caller history,” it wrote.

Fed target-rate expectations for July 29 FOMC gathering (screenshot). Source: CME Group

Bitcoin terms caught betwixt regular moving averages

Ahead of caller macro catalysts, BTC terms enactment acted broadly wrong a scope bounded by its 50-day elemental (SMA) and exponential (EMA) moving averages.

Related: Markets oculus Bank of Japan gathering connected Friday arsenic yen repeats 40-year US dollar lows

BTC/USD four-hour illustration with 21-day, 50-day EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

This scope had begun successful mid-July, with failed breakouts taking vantage of liquidity zones connected either side.

The latest information from CoinGlass showed imaginable liquidations gathering connected either broadside of the existent range, with clusters astatine $63,500 and $64,900.

BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass

Trading volumes, however, remained conspicuously low, with spot-market measurement astatine its lowest levels since July 2023.

“CME unfastened involvement remains adjacent multi-year lows, perpetual futures unfastened involvement has stalled astir 300,000 BTC, and mean regular spot measurement came successful astatine conscionable $2.2 cardinal for the month,” crypto analytics institution K33 Research added successful a bulletin connected Tuesday.

Retail capitalist involvement successful some Bitcoin and the broader crypto marketplace has been successful diminution since the latter’s October 2025 all-time highs. AI stocks person formed a large destination for the capitalist pivot.