Bitcoin rallies as spot ETF inflows soar, but $105K looks out of reach

2 hours ago

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin’s determination supra $97,000 lacks confirmation successful derivatives markets, with the options skew signaling caution toward immoderate sustained rally.
Geopolitical risks, falling treasury yields, and weakening equities reenforce a risk-off mounting that continues to bounds Bitcoin’s upside.

Bitcoin (BTC) terms surged to its highest levels successful much than 60 days aft posting a 5.5% summation connected Wednesday. The determination followed $840 cardinal successful inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) connected Monday and Tuesday. With Bitcoin uncovering footing connected the upside, are further gains toward $105,000 apt successful the adjacent term?

Bitcoin’s rally toward $97,000 contrasts with the continued weakness of the tech-heavy Nasdaq Index, which has repeatedly failed to reclaim the 26,000 level past seen successful aboriginal November 2025. Investor sentiment remains mixed, arsenic Bitcoin inactive trades 23% beneath its $126,219 all-time high, portion golden and metallic prices reached grounds highs successful 2026, signaling a stronger bid for accepted safe-haven assets.

Professional traders person yet to crook bullish, according to the BTC options delta skew metric, arsenic enactment (sell) options proceed to commercialized astatine a premium. The BTC options delta skew presently stands astatine 4%, unchanged from 1 week earlier, indicating unchangeable hazard cognition contempt the rally supra $96,000 connected Wednesday. Traders stay skeptical astir sustained gains supra the $100,000 level.

Bitcoin’s upside capped by accrued sociopolitical concerns

Typically, erstwhile whales and marketplace makers turn optimistic, the skew turns negative, reflecting accrued request for neutral-to-bullish enactment strategies. Instead, Bitcoin bears were caught disconnected guard, arsenic the caller terms beforehand triggered $370 cardinal successful liquidations of leveraged abbreviated (sell) positions implicit 2 days, the highest full since October 2025.

Part of the deficiency of optimism tin beryllium linked to geopolitical tensions aft protests successful Iran prompted subject threats from US President Donald Trump, including a imaginable further 25% import tariff connected countries “doing concern with the Islamic Republic of Iran.” Investors fearfulness that US relations with China and India could deteriorate if the connection moves forward.

Investor assurance has besides been pressured by the Trump administration’s volition to summation power of Greenland. Trump has argued that the self-governing territory of Denmark is captious to US nationalist security. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has reportedly offered assistance to Denmark successful the lawsuit of a hostile takeover, according to Politico.

Yields connected the US 2-year Treasury fell to 3.51% connected Wednesday, indicating that traders are accepting little returns successful speech for the information of government-backed bonds. This is particularly telling since the latest US user terms ostentation scale (CPI) stood astatine 2.7% twelvemonth implicit year, supra the US Federal Reserve’s target.

Warren Buffett, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, reportedly warned that the deficiency of clarity surrounding the aboriginal absorption of artificial quality is concerning. Reflecting this caution, Berkshire’s currency position climbed to a grounds $381.7 billion, up from $170 cardinal 1 twelvemonth prior.

The Nasdaq Index declined 1.6%, portion Oracle (ORCL US) shares dropped 5% aft bondholders filed a people enactment suit alleging the institution failed to disclose the request for important further indebtedness to grow its artificial quality infrastructure.

As uncertainty builds, traders person reduced equity exposure, signaling a little tolerance for hazard that besides limits appetite for cryptocurrencies.

It remains unclear whether Bitcoin has decisively ended its two-month carnivore market, but derivatives information amusement traders stay highly skeptical of a accelerated rally toward $105,000. For now, investors’ absorption remains connected the broader sociopolitical risks and connected whether the US Federal Reserve tin enactment economical maturation without reigniting inflation.

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