Bitcoin ‘risk off’ signals fire despite traders’ view that sub-$100K BTC is a discount

1 hour ago

Bitcoin (BTC) whitethorn beryllium holding supra $90,000, but information implied that its terms is inactive flashing a important risk-off signal. CryptoQuant’s multi-metric risk-off oscillator remained adjacent the “High-Risk” zone, a level that historically precedes corrections and diminishes the probability of a sustained bullish trend.

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin’s risk-off awesome was positioned adjacent “High-Risk” territory, which has antecedently indicated a bearish period.
BTC’s Profit–Loss sentiment has deed a uncommon -3 extreme, signalling a structural correction.
BTC’s -32% drawdown placed it betwixt a correction and capitulation zone, which whitethorn prolong the diminution betwixt $90,000 and $80,000.

Bitcoin is structurally anemic adjacent $90,000

CryptoQuant’s Risk-Off model incorporates six metrics — downside volatility, upside volatility, speech inflows, backing rates, futures unfastened interest, and marketplace headdress behaviour — to nutrient a data-driven appraisal of marketplace fragility. With the oscillator adjacent 60 oregon the High-Risk zone, correction hazard remains elevated.

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Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr besides noted that the profit/loss people has dropped to -3, reflecting an utmost attraction of unprofitable UTXOs. Historically, this level aligned with bearish regimes and extended cooling phases. The existent -32% drawdown exceeded mean rhythm pullbacks (-20–25%) but remains supra capitulation thresholds (-50% to -70%), placing Bitcoin successful a susceptible “intermediate zone.”

Adler said that arsenic agelong arsenic macroeconomic conditions and onchain profitability neglect to improve, the probability of continued downside remains high, contempt the terms stabilizing adjacent $90,000.

At this stage, onchain data from Glassnode offered a tiny metallic lining. The analytics level noted that Bitcoin’s latest drawdown triggered the largest spike successful realized losses since the FTX illness successful 2022, overwhelmingly driven by short-term holders (STHs).

However, semipermanent holder (LTH) losses stay comparatively muted, a dynamic that historically reflects halfway holder resilience and has sometimes cushioned deeper capitulation successful past cycles.

$100,000 Bitcoin is simply a conflict betwixt the momentum and the trend

One CryptoQuant expert described Bitcoin’s attack to $100,000 arsenic a “psychological turning point.” While a breakout could trigger renewed momentum, perchance helped by a Federal Reserve involvement complaint chopped connected Dec. 10, large circular numbers often nutrient volatility and failed attempts.

The maturation complaint quality (Market Cap vs. Realized Cap) remained astatine -0.00095, indicating that the marketplace headdress is shrinking faster than the realized cap. With BTC presently astatine $91,000, the expert leaned much toward structural weakness alternatively than inclination expansion.

Bitcoin futures trader, Byzantine General, besides identified shaky terms enactment for BTC, stating,

“$BTC is struggling a spot present astatine this cardinal absorption level. If it breaks through, it could alert implicit 100,000 precise quickly, but if it really rejects here, past we're astir apt stuck successful this 92,000- 82,000 scope for a while.”

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