Bitcoin’s $60K crash may mark halfway point of bear market: Kaiko

2 hours ago

Bitcoin’s crisp correction astatine the commencement of the period whitethorn correspond a captious “halfway point” successful the existent carnivore market, according to caller probe from Kaiko Research.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $59,930 connected Friday, marking its lowest level since October 2024 and earlier the re-election of US President Donald Trump, according to TradingView data.

The diminution suggests the marketplace has moved retired of the euphoric post-halving signifier and into what Kaiko described arsenic a historically emblematic carnivore marketplace play that lasts astir 12 months earlier a caller accumulation signifier begins.

In a probe enactment shared with Cointelegraph connected Monday, Kaiko said Bitcoin’s 32% clang was the astir important correction since the 2024 Bitcoin halving and whitethorn people the “halfway point” of the existent carnivore market.

“Analysis of on-chain metrics and comparative show crossed tokens reveals a marketplace approaching captious method enactment levels that volition find whether the four-year rhythm model remains intact,” Kaiko said.

Kaiko’s study highlighted respective emerging onchain carnivore marketplace signals, including a 30% driblet successful aggregate spot crypto trading measurement crossed the 10 starring centralized exchanges, from astir $1 trillion successful October 2025 down to $700 cardinal successful November.

At the aforesaid time, combined Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) futures unfastened involvement declined from $29 cardinal to $25 cardinal implicit the past week, a 14% simplification that Kaiko said reflects ongoing deleveraging.

While Bitcoin has realigned with the humanities four-year halving rhythm since the opening of the year, determining the extent of the existent carnivore marketplace is complex, arsenic “many catalysts that fueled BTC’s rally to $126,000 are inactive successful effect,” said Shawn Young, main analyst, MEXC Research.

“With oversold indicators emerging connected aggregate timeframes, the rebound speech astir BTC is much a question of when, not if,” Young said, adding that Bitcoin whitethorn beryllium entering a caller rhythm that volition lone go wide implicit the adjacent year.

Is $60,000 the carnivore marketplace bottom?

The cardinal question for investors is whether the dip to $60,000 represents the debased of the existent carnivore market. The level astir aligns with Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average, which has historically acted arsenic semipermanent support.

However, much marketplace volatility is expected successful the lack of crypto-specific marketplace catalysts, Nicolai Sondergaard, probe expert astatine crypto quality level Nansen, told Cointelegraph, adding:

“With that said, it is inactive precise hard to accidental if it means we are going backmost to the accepted 4-year cycle. I person seen galore salient figures successful the abstraction aerial the idea, but arsenic galore who bash not deliberation so.”

However, Kaiko pointed to a 52% retracement from Bitcoin’s erstwhile all-time precocious being “unusually shallow” compared to erstwhile carnivore marketplace cycles.

A 60% to 68% retracement would “align much closely” with humanities drawdowns, which implies a Bitcoin rhythm bottommost astir $40,000 to $50,000, Kaiko said.

Still, immoderate marketplace participants reason that $60,000 already marked a section bottom. Analyst and MN Capital laminitis Michaël van de Poppe called the clang to $60,000 the local marketplace bottom for Bitcoin’s price, citing a grounds debased successful capitalist sentiment and a captious debased successful the Relative Strength Index, which sank to values past seen successful 2018 and 2020.

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