Bitcoin’s ‘aggressive leg higher’ in Q3 still up in the air: Analyst

Bitcoin’s caller all-time precocious of $111,970 has sparked optimism among crypto marketplace participants, but whether that carries done into the 3rd 4th of this twelvemonth remains uncertain, analysts say.

“The coming weeks volition apt find whether Bitcoinʼs latest breakout was a section precocious oregon the prelude to a much assertive limb higher successful Q3,” Bitfinex analysts said successful a May 28 markets note.

Consolidation oregon mild retracement whitethorn “be healthy”

Bitcoin (BTC) reached caller all-time highs of $111,970 connected May 22, however, Bitfinex analysts accidental a continued terms summation unsocial won’t needfully corroborate the uptrend heading into the adjacent quarter. 

“A play of consolidation oregon mild retracement would not lone beryllium steadfast but besides supply a much sustainable instauration for the adjacent limb higher,” the analysts said.

It isn’t antithetic for Bitcoin to consolidate for an extended clip aft reaching all-time highs. After Bitcoin reached a precocious of $73,679 successful March 2024, it swung wrong astir a $20,000 range until Donald Trump was elected US president that November.

The 3rd 4th of the twelvemonth has, connected average, been Bitcoin’s worst-performing 4th since 2013, with an mean instrumentality of conscionable 6.03% implicit the past 11 years, according to CoinGlass data. The adjacent worst 4th connected mean is Q2, which has historically posted a stronger mean instrumentality of 27.25%.

Q4 has been the best-performing 4th connected mean for Bitcoin since 2013. Source: CoinGlass

The analysts said that Bitcoin had entered a “short-term range-bound phase,” with a important magnitude of short-term holders — those holding Bitcoin for nether 155 days — selling disconnected their positions implicit the past 30 days.

“With implicit $11.4 cardinal successful short-term holder profits realized successful the past month, the near-term proviso overhang is expected — but truthful is structural demand. According to Bitbo data, the short-term holder realized terms for Bitcoin was $95,781, portion Bitcoin was trading astatine $108,929 astatine the clip of publication. 

This represents an mean nett of 13.72% for short-term holders.

Related: Bitcoin nett taking lingers, but rally to $115K volition liquidate $7B shorts

Bitfinex’s analysts said that Bitcoin’s ETF “bid strength,” debased volatility and Bitcoin’s spot premium each awesome a maturing marketplace “poised for eventual continuation erstwhile macro clarity improves.”

The trading week ending May 23 saw astir $2.75 cardinal flow into spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs successful the US saw astir $2.75 cardinal successful inflows betwixt May 19 and May 23. Source: Farside

Crypto investors volition beryllium watching the US Federal Reserve’s adjacent involvement complaint determination connected June 18 for much clarity connected the macro environment. The Fed kept rates dependable astatine 4.25% to 4.50% successful May.

Bitcoin reaching caller highs earlier this period was an lawsuit respective crypto pundits predicted would hap earlier this year. On March 7, Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten said determination was a 50% accidental Bitcoin would reach caller highs earlier June. 

Similarly, Real Vision main crypto expert Jamie Coutts said Bitcoin whitethorn deed “new all-time highs earlier Q2 is out.”

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