Bitcoin’s monthly losses break records, but history says a turnaround is brewing

Bitcoin (BTC) is forming what whitethorn beryllium to beryllium a 5th consecutive reddish monthly candle, which would beryllium the longest losing streak since 2018. The metallic lining is that information suggests that March whitethorn beryllium to beryllium a profitable period for BTC.

Previous multi-month downtrends were followed by 300% terms gains

Historical terms information from CoinGlass confirms Bitcoin is present facing its 5th consecutive reddish month, down 15% this period aft closing the erstwhile 4 months successful the red.

The past clip this happened was successful 2018, erstwhile it entered a carnivore marketplace aft reaching grounds highs successful 2017. 

“Last clip this happened was successful 2018/19 erstwhile we saw 6 reddish months,” analysts astatine macro capitalist outlet Milk Road said successful an X station connected Thursday.

This led to a reversal with implicit 316% returns implicit the pursuing 5 months, the analysts said, adding:

“If past repeats, the reversal volition statesman connected April 1st.”

Bitcoin monthly returns,%. Source: CoinGlass

Analyzing Bitcoin’s quarterly show during the 2022 carnivore marketplace provides a much cautious mentation of BTC terms history. The information shows Bitcoin recorded 4 consecutive reddish quarters during that year.

Losses stacked crossed the 4 quarters, bringing the full losses to 64% arsenic the BTC/USD brace closed the twelvemonth astatine $16,500 from an opening terms of $46,230. This marked 1 of the harshest drawdowns successful Bitcoin’s history. 

As Cointelegraph reported, galore analysts expect 2026 to beryllium a carnivore marketplace year, and a akin agelong of 4 losing quarters could widen the weakness below the 15-month debased of $60,000.

Bitcoin monthly returns, %. Source: CoinGlass

Analyst Solana Sensei shared a illustration that focused connected Bitcoin’s play performance, with the terms printing the 5th candlestick successful a row. 

This is the longest streak since 2022, making it the 2nd-longest losing streak connected record.

In 2022, BTC terms saw 9 reddish weeks, dropping to $20,500 from $46,800.

BTC/USD play chart. Source: Solala Sensei

Therefore, portion past monthly show suggests an impending rebound, quarterly and play information from 2022 demonstrate that BTC terms declines could past longer than expected.

Related: Bitcoin’s consolidation nears ‘turning point’ arsenic $70K comes successful focus: Analyst

The existent marketplace is “fundamentally different”

Veteran expert Sykodelic argues that Bitcoin's existent carnivore signifier is “fundamentally different” for respective reasons, including the monthly RSI having already reached the 2015 and 2018 carnivore marketplace lows.

Sykodelic said that owed to the deficiency of a existent overbought enlargement successful the monthly RSI during the bull phase, marketplace participants volition beryllium misguided to expect a symmetric contraction.

“This is yet again different concern successful which we look a batch much similar 2020 than immoderate different play successful time,” the expert said successful a Thursday station connected X, adding:

“I americium not seeing thing that tells maine we are successful the aforesaid benignant carnivore marketplace arsenic we person had previously, and everyone should beryllium alert of these differences.”

BTC/USD monthly chart. Source: Sykodelic

This suggests the existent carnivore rhythm is not pursuing humanities patterns, and Bitcoin’s bottommost and consequent betterment could drawback galore traders disconnected guard.