Bitcoin’s real ‘Uptober’ moment might start in February: Here’s why

1 hour ago

Bitcoin’s (BTC) monthly gains person been constricted to conscionable 2.2%, but February could people a bullish shift. Since 2016, the week ending Feb. 21 has recorded the highest median instrumentality astatine 8.4%, with Bitcoin closing higher 60% of the time.

Key takeaways:

February has delivered a median 7% play BTC instrumentality historically, outperforming October’s seasonal strength.
Early-February show has reliably flagged bearish periods, with 2018, 2022, and 2025 each mounting the code wrong the archetypal 3 weeks.

Cryptocurrencies, Business, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, BTC Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis

February’s seasonal borderline and its interaction connected BTC

Network Economist Timothy Peterson highlighted that February has historically been 1 of Bitcoin’s astir accordant bullish months, often surpassing the well-known “Uptober” effect successful Q4. According to Peterson, the operator is macroeconomic-related alternatively than crypto-specific.

Mid-February marks the merchandise of full-year firm net and guardant guidance, which tends to beryllium optimistic. This outlook typically nudges investors toward a risk-on posture, with immoderate superior rotating into Bitcoin. Peterson said,

“The two-week play for Feb 7-21 features a median play instrumentality of => 7% per week!!”

Peterson besides noted that the archetypal 3 weeks of February person been peculiarly telling during correction years. Bitcoin gained 4% successful aboriginal 2018, fell 3% successful 2022, and declined 5% successful 2025, each years that yet closed lower.

With volatility elevated but easing, Peterson argued that Bitcoin could beryllium well-positioned for a rebound if macroeconomic accent indicators, specified arsenic the CBOE’s volatility scale (VIX), chill off.

Bitcoin’s ceiling successful 2026 remains supra $200,000

Bitcoin researcher Sminston With remains bullish connected BTC’s long-cycle potential. Using the Bitcoin Decay Channel, With placed Bitcoin’s 2026 apical terms betwixt $210,000 and $300,000, noting that portion the exemplary does not foretell timing, its terms bands person historically been reliable.

That longer-term presumption is reinforced by momentum data. Sina, writer of the Bitcoin Intelligence Report, said Bitcoin’s momentum has turned affirmative contempt the caller crisp correction.

According to Sina, consolidation since aboriginal January preserved the broader travel structure. The sell-off coincided with the Nasdaq’s diminution pursuing renewed US tariff tensions, signaling a news-driven determination alternatively than a Bitcoin-specific breakdown.

Supporting this view, XWIN Research noted that Bitcoin remains successful a consolidation signifier alternatively than a wide risk-off trend. While elevated semipermanent enslaved yields are limiting valuation expansion, the Realized Cap continues to rise, a motion that spot-based superior is inactive entering the network.

This nonfiction does not incorporate concern proposal oregon recommendations. Every concern and trading determination involves risk, and readers should behaviour their ain probe erstwhile making a decision. While we strive to supply close and timely information, Cointelegraph does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, oregon reliability of immoderate accusation successful this article. This nonfiction whitethorn incorporate forward-looking statements that are taxable to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph volition not beryllium liable for immoderate nonaccomplishment oregon harm arising from your reliance connected this information.

View source