Bitcoin set to beat ‘red September’ dip for third straight year

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Bitcoin snapped a three-year streak of antagonistic summertime mean returns, but it present enters its worst month, known arsenic “red September.”

September carries the dreaded nickname due to the fact that it has delivered the lowest monthly returns for Bitcoin (BTC), averaging –3.77% crossed 12 years from 2013. It is besides the period China imposed a brace of large crypto bans successful 2017 and 2021.

That grounds is weighed down by six consecutive years of losses from 2017 to 2022. The tables turned successful 2023, and Bitcoin has present posted 2 consecutive September gains, including its champion September ever successful 2024, erstwhile it closed the period up 7.29%.

The estimation comes from equities, wherever September is besides the weakest period for the S&P 500. It’s erstwhile investors instrumentality from summertime with a much risk-off posture and funds rebalance heading into the 4th quarter.

The gloom often doesn’t last. September’s losses person historically fixed mode to October, oregon “Uptober,” a period that has delivered gains successful six consecutive years and lone 2 losses successful Bitcoin’s history, according to CoinGlass.

Red September’s regulatory resistance connected Bitcoin

In Bitcoin’s aboriginal years, its terms was scattered and not wide tracked. The plus archetypal breached $1,000 successful 2013, drafting mainstream media attraction and prompting amended archival records. That aforesaid twelvemonth saw the motorboat of industry-native aggregator CoinMarketCap, followed by CoinGecko successful 2014.

Between 2013 and 2016, Bitcoin’s September show was evenly split, with 2 affirmative months and 2 antagonistic ones. The signifier broke successful 2017 during the archetypal coin offering (ICO) boom, erstwhile Bitcoin crossed $1,000 for the 2nd clip and passed $2,000 for the first. The speculative frenzy led China’s cardinal slope to prohibition ICOs connected Sept. 4, sparking the archetypal of six consecutive reddish Septembers. South Korea followed with its ain ICO prohibition connected Sept. 29, portion regulators elsewhere issued warnings.

The aftermath ushered successful what became known arsenic the archetypal crypto winter, arsenic countless ICO tokens crashed. By September 2018, Bitcoin had dropped from its December 2017 all-time precocious adjacent $20,000 to beneath $7,000. A Sept. 5 media study claimed Goldman Sachs was abandoning its crypto table plans. The slope aboriginal dismissed the story arsenic “fake news.”

September 2019 added different stroke with the long-awaited launch of Bakkt’s Bitcoin futures. Despite precocious expectations for organization inflows, trading volumes were weak, and the debut was branded a flop. Three days later, Bitcoin plunged from adjacent $10,000 to beneath $8,000. A Binance Research study published connected Sept. 30, 2019, cited Bakkt’s “disappointing start” arsenic a contributing origin to Bitcoin’s terms decline.

The adjacent 3 Septembers reflected the pandemic epoch and its fallout. While COVID-19 initially boosted Bitcoin’s narrative arsenic an ostentation hedge, September 2020 saw superior rotate into Ether (ETH) during the “DeFi Summer.”

In September 2021, China struck again with a ban connected crypto mining and trading. The adjacent year, the Terra/LUNA illness successful May near heavy scars, and September’s 0.75 percent constituent complaint hike — its 5th successful a twelvemonth of 7 hikes — added brackish to Bitcoin’s injury.

Bitcoin’s “red September” streak breaks

After six consecutive years of September losses, Bitcoin snapped the streak successful 2023. A pivotal catalyst came connected Aug. 29 erstwhile a national appeals tribunal ruled that the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s rejection of Grayscale’s bid to person its Bitcoin spot into a spot exchange-traded money (ETF) was “arbitrary and capricious.”

The determination forced regulators to revisit the exertion and revived assurance that a US spot Bitcoin ETF was inevitable. The ruling carried momentum into September, helping Bitcoin ascent astir 4% connected the month. The US Federal Reserve besides aided sentiment by holding rates steady aft 11 hikes successful 12 meetings starting from March 2022.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved and listed successful the US successful aboriginal 2024. By midyear, the fiscal instruments were routinely posting billions of dollars successful regular trading volume. Macro conditions added substance arsenic the Fed delivered a complaint chopped connected Sept. 18, 2024, which was the first since March 2020.

Then came the launch of World Liberty Financial connected Sept. 16, 2024, which was rapidly woven into US predetermination narratives. Framed arsenic a Donald Trump-aligned crypto venture, it debuted portion helium was successful the midst of what would go a palmy statesmanlike campaign, signaling a governmental clasp of cryptocurrencies astatine the highest level.

Another complaint chopped could assistance Bitcoin interruption the “red September” curse

Bitcoin is heading into September 2025 carrying the value of history. The period has agelong been a stumbling block, marked by regulatory shocks and tightening cycles that scarred capitalist sentiment.

This year, the backdrop looks stronger than successful past downcycles. Spot Bitcoin ETFs proceed to station billions successful turnover and person go a gateway for organization capital. Throughout 2025, struggling companies person turned to Bitcoin treasury strategies successful a bid to flip their misfortunes.

The crypto manufacture besides brings caller speculation from August retired of China, with rumors swirling that authorities could let stablecoins pegged to the offshore yuan. So far, officials person made nary confirmation.

Jerome Powell delivers dovish remarks successful his last Jackson Hole speech. Source: Associated Press

Investors’ attraction is squarely connected the US, wherever the Fed appears to person pivoted. In precocious August, Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered his last Jackson Hole speech earlier his word ends successful May 2026. The symposium is 1 of the astir intimately watched events successful planetary economics, arsenic it is often utilized by Fed chairs to hint astatine argumentation direction.

In 2022, Powell warned of “pain” for households and businesses arsenic the Fed pressed connected with assertive complaint hikes. This year, helium struck a dovish tone, saying that “shifting equilibrium of risks” whitethorn warrant adjusting the Fed’s argumentation stance.

Another simplification is wide expected astatine the Federal Open Market Committee gathering scheduled for Sept. 16-17.

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