4 hours ago
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin’s futures backing rates concisely turned negative, signaling that bullish traders presently deficiency the condemnation to usage leverage.
Uncertainty regarding the semipermanent profitability of artificial quality has pushed investors toward golden and US authorities bonds.
Bitcoin (BTC) failed to reclaim the $70,000 level connected Tuesday pursuing a retraction successful the S&P 500 futures. Traders are acrophobic that investments successful the artificial quality assemblage could instrumentality longer to mature, which pressured shares of Nvidia (NVDA US), Apple (AAPL US), and Google (GOOGL US) connected Friday. Bearishness successful Bitcoin futures became apparent, starring traders to fearfulness further downside.
Bitcoin futures annualized backing rate. Source: Laevitas.chThe annualized BTC futures backing rate concisely flipped antagonistic connected Monday, indicating a deficiency of request for leveraged agelong positions. Under neutral conditions, this indicator typically ranges betwixt 6% and 12%; consequently, a deficiency of condemnation from bulls has been the norm for the past week. The caller dominance of precious metals has besides contributed to the disappointment of Bitcoin investors.
Bitcoin/USD vs. silver, gold, S&P 500 futures. Source: TradingViewSilver and golden emerged arsenic wide winners implicit the past 2 months portion the banal marketplace entered a consolidation period. Gains successful the tech assemblage person travel to a standstill arsenic immoderate analysts reason that valuations person go excessive, portion others assertion ratio gains from AI are yet paying off. Regardless of the outcome, investors sought extortion successful authorities bonds.
US dollar spot scale (left) vs. US 10-year Treasury output (right). Source: TradingviewYields connected the 10-year US Treasury declined to their lowest levels since November 2025, signaling that request for these bonds has increased. This inclination does not needfully bespeak higher assurance successful the Federal Reserve’s strategy to debar a recession without fueling inflation. In fact, the US dollar has weakened against a handbasket of overseas currencies, arsenic reflected successful the DXY index.
Dario Amodei, co-founder and CEO of Anthropic, reportedly stated connected Friday that revenues from AI investments are improbable to wage disconnected successful the adjacent mates of years. According to Fortune, helium warned that spending monolithic amounts to physique information centers rapidly could beryllium "ruinous."
Amodei besides noted that delivering $10 trillion of compute by mid-2027 is intolerable owed to capableness constraints. This uncertainty successful the tech assemblage has pushed investors toward much risk-averse behavior.
Bitcoin options marketplace stabilizes arsenic macroeconomic uncertainty lingers
Demand for neutral-to-bearish strategies utilizing BTC options has stagnated implicit the past week. The panic pursuing the unexpected clang to $60,200 connected Feb. 6 has mostly subsided, yet traders are inactive acold from flipping bullish.
Related: Bitcoin accumulation question puts $80K backmost successful play–Analyst
Deribit BTC put-to-call options ratio. Source: Laevitas.chThe BTC options put-to-call ratio astatine Deribit stood astatine 0.8x connected Monday, indicating balanced request betwixt enactment (sell) and telephone (buy) instruments. This information contrasts sharply with the 1.5x ratio seen past Wednesday, a level typically deemed bearish. While it volition apt instrumentality a mates of weeks for bulls to regain afloat confidence, Bitcoin derivatives metrics presently amusement nary signs of panic among marketplace participants.
Traders whitethorn person opted to enactment much cautiously, choosing to instrumentality profits aft Bitcoin flirted with the $70,000 mark. This caution was amplified arsenic some the US and Chinese markets were closed for holidays connected Monday. There is nary wide denotation that Bitcoin is bound for further downside based solely connected the antagonistic BTC futures backing rate. However, establishing sustainable bullish momentum volition apt beryllium connected a simplification successful macroeconomic uncertainty.
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