Bitcoin experts are buzzing arsenic President-elect Donald Trump lashed retired against existent Federal Reserve policy, calling involvement rates “far excessively high” contempt persistent inflationary pressures. “We are inheriting a hard concern from the outgoing administration,” Trump said astatine his Mar-a-Lago club, adding that officials look to beryllium “trying everything they tin to marque it much difficult” for his incoming team.
The blunt remarks, coming less than 2 weeks earlier Trump’s inauguration, person stoked anticipation of a imaginable displacement successful US monetary policy—and raised speculation astir a boost for Bitcoin and different hazard assets successful the caller year.
The 2017 Trump Playbook: Dollar “Too Strong”, Bitcoin Up?
Although the economical and geopolitical scenery has changed since Trump’s archetypal term, immoderate marketplace watchers spot parallels to his 2017 rhetoric. Back then, helium lambasted a US dollar that helium deemed “too strong,” a stance that preceded a notable diminution successful the currency. The US Dollar Index (DXY) peaked adjacent 104 successful aboriginal January 2017 but began a downward inclination that extended into aboriginal 2018, bottoming retired astir 98.
This crisp determination successful the dollar coincided with a broader risk-on environment, fueling rallies successful equities arsenic good arsenic the Bitcoin and crypto markets. Julien Bittel, Head of Macro Research astatine Global Macro Investor (GMI), drew a nonstop comparison connected X.
“The past clip Trump said thing was ‘too high,’ it was the dollar – backmost successful January 2017, conscionable days earlier his inauguration,” Bittel stated and recounted: “Here’s what helium said: ‘Our companies can’t vie with them present due to the fact that our currency is excessively strong. And it’s sidesplitting us.”
Notably, past year, Trump besides called caller spot a “tremendous load connected US businesses.” Bittel further argued: “Trump understands the interaction of a beardown dollar – and the aforesaid logic applies to precocious involvement rates. They suppress exports, wounded firm earnings, and dilatory economical growth.”
Speaking connected the interaction connected Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, Bittel concluded: “What happened next? Well, the dollar began a important decline, mounting the signifier for 1 of the astir pivotal macro moves we’ve seen successful years – triggering a melt-up successful hazard assets. Déjà vu? I deliberation so. Let’s spot however it plays out.”
Bittel is not the lone adept speculating that the DXY whitethorn already person peaked, mirroring its 2017 topping pattern. Steve Donzé, Deputy CIO for Multi Asset astatine Pictet Asset Management Japan, shared a wide discussed illustration connected X, remarking “On time. Ready for pushback,” portion overlaying caller DXY movements with the currency’s trajectory successful aboriginal 2017. The illustration suggests a akin signifier that could foreshadow renewed dollar weakness successful the coming weeks.
In a abstracted post, fiscal expert Silver Surfer (@SilverSurfer_23) pointed to an uncanny timing overlap: “DXY topped connected January 3rd, 2017—18 days earlier Trump’s Inauguration. DXY looks to person topped connected January 2nd, 2025—19 days earlier Trump’s Inauguration.” He characterized the parallel arsenic “crazy past repeating,” explaining that helium sees a correlation betwixt the way of the DXY earlier some inaugurations.
Such analogies are fueling speculation that a repetition dollar slump could usher successful an situation favoring hazard assets. Should the dollar so participate a caller downtrend—much similar successful 2017–2018—Bitcoin could thrust a question of renewed liquidity and speculative appetite.
At property time, BTC traded astatine $94,950.
Featured representation created with DALL.E, illustration from TradingView.com