Bitcoin To Hit $125,000 By Year-End If Trump Wins, Says Standard Chartered

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In a probe insubstantial dated October 24, Geoff Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research astatine Standard Chartered Bank, predicts that Bitcoin could surge to $125,000 by the extremity of the twelvemonth if erstwhile President Donald Trump secures triumph successful the upcoming US statesmanlike election.

When Bitcoin Could Hit $125,000

Kendrick’s analysis hinges connected the interplay betwixt Bitcoin’s terms movements and the US governmental landscape. “We usage regular BTC vol levels and fashionable onslaught levels to estimation post-election terms moves,” helium states successful the study titled Bitcoin – Post-US Election Playbook. According to Kendrick, Bitcoin prices person been ascending successful caller weeks, aligning with different trades favored by Trump supporters.

The study forecasts that Bitcoin is apt to scope astir $73,000 by Election Day connected November 5, nearing its all-time precocious of $73,800 recorded successful March. “Our basal lawsuit is that Bitcoin rises to astir $73,000 by Election Day, catching up to betting-market probabilities of a Trump win,” Kendrick notes.

Betting markets are reflecting expanding assurance successful a Trump victory. “The mean betting likelihood of a Trump triumph present basal astatine 59%, according to RealClearPolitics. Furthermore, conditional probabilities successful circumstantial betting markets (Polymarket) suggest a 75% accidental of a Republican expanse if Trump wins the presidency,” the study highlights.

Should Trump win, Kendrick anticipates immediate bullish momentum for Bitcoin. “Assuming a Trump victory, options break-even implies a further terms emergence of astir 4% erstwhile the statesmanlike result is known, and astir 10% successful full wrong a fewer much days,” helium explains.

The imaginable for a Republican expanse of Congress amplifies this outlook. “If the Republicans expanse Congress, our year-end people level of USD 125,000 should travel into view,” Kendrick asserts. This script is underpinned by important unfastened involvement successful Bitcoin telephone options expiring connected December 27 astatine the $80,000 onslaught price, suggesting accelerated question toward that level.

What If Harris Wins?

In contrast, if Vice President Kamala Harris emerges victorious, the study suggests a impermanent setback for Bitcoin prices. “If Harris wins, we spot BTC initially trading little but inactive ending 2024 astatine caller highs astir $75,000,” Kendrick projects. This implies a resilient semipermanent outlook for Bitcoin careless of the predetermination outcome, though the magnitude of gains would differ.

Kendrick emphasizes the relation of options marketplace information successful gauging imaginable terms movements. “Options info helps estimation archetypal post-election terms moves,” helium states. The dense trading volumes and fashionable onslaught levels service arsenic indicators of capitalist expectations and marketplace positioning up of the election.

The caller dip successful Bitcoin’s terms to a section debased of $65,200 was addressed arsenic well. Kendrick believes this is “likely to beryllium the past earlier the U.S. statesmanlike election,” suggesting that immoderate short-term corrections whitethorn beryllium overshadowed by the impending governmental developments.

At property time, BTC traded astatine $67,520.