Bitcoin Tops $114K as Traders Eye U.S. CPI for Rate-Cut Clues: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin (BTC) is up astir 1.4% successful the past 24 hours arsenic investors await cardinal ostentation information successful the U.S., which could signifier expectations for a much-discussed interest-rate chopped by the Federal Reserve.

Before that hits though, the European Central Bank announces its ain interest-rate decision. It's expected to support rates steady, a astonishment determination whitethorn ruffle a fewer feathers.

Economists are forecasting a humble emergence in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) owed astatine 8:30 a.m. That, coupled with the adjacent 1 cardinal jobs revision from the Bureau of Labor Statistics earlier this week, points to increasing chances of complaint cuts.

On Polymarket, bettors present spot a 79% accidental of a 25 basis-point complaint chopped this month, portion perceived likelihood of a 50 bps driblet person surged to 18% from 5.4% successful a week. The CME’s FedWatch instrumentality shows traders positioned for a 92% accidental of a 25 bps cut, and an 8% accidental of an adjacent deeper one.

A complaint chopped would payment hazard assets, and the increasing likelihood of specified an lawsuit are being felt connected the market. Spot bitcoin and ether ETFs attracted a combined $928 cardinal successful nett inflows yesterday and bitcoin deed $114,000 for the archetypal clip since aboriginal August.

Still, immoderate analysts are flashing caution. Jake Ostrovskis, the caput of OTC Trading astatine Wintermute, pointed retired that persistent ostentation and slowing maturation are raising stagflation concerns.

Since precocious August, Ostrovskis said, investors person been moving distant from ether aft its outperformance and backmost into bitcoin. Options enactment reflects that shift, with traders protectively buying puts connected ETH and hazard reversals for March and June 2026 dipping into antagonistic territory.

This “creates a setup wherever the marketplace feels good hedged” should pressures ease, Ostrovskis noted. “At the extremity of the day, we're adjacent to the opening of a rate-cutting cycle.”

Meanwhile, golden remains adjacent grounds highs, with the bitcoin-to-gold ratio approaching absorption levels that antecedently signaled crypto bottoms, analysts astatine QCP Capital said.

“If past rhymes, bitcoin could beryllium successful the process of establishing different bottom, mounting the signifier for the adjacent large limb higher,“ they wrote.

Still, geopolitical turmoil shouldn’t beryllium ignored. Russia violated Poland’s airspace this week, forcing NATO to scramble its jets and prompting Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk to accidental this was “the closest we person been to unfastened struggle since World War II.”

Tusk underlined there’s “no crushed to judge we’re connected the brink of war,” and Moscow denied work for the attack. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto
  • Sept. 11, 9 a.m.: Swissblock webinar connected “The Final Innings of This Bull Cycle.”
  • Sept. 11: Figure Technology Solutions, a blockchain-powered lender, begins trading connected Nasdaq Global Select Market nether ticker FIGR pursuing an IPO priced astatine $25 per share.
  • Sept. 12: Gemini Space Station, the Winklevoss twins’ crypto exchange, begins trading connected Nasdaq Global Select Market nether ticker GEMI; IPO terms scope $24-$26.
• Macro
  • Sept. 11, 8:30 a.m.: August U.S. Core CPI YoY Est. 3.1%, MoM Est. 0.3%; CPI YoY Est. 2.9%, MoM Est. 0.3%.
• Earnings (Estimates based connected FactSet data)
  • None scheduled.

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • Compound DAO is voting connected extending its COMP output strategy with MYSO’s decentralized protocol and scaling it up to $9 cardinal worthy of tokens, targeting a 15% yearly output for the DAO. Voting ends Sept. 11.
  • Hyperliquid to ballot on who issues its USDH stablecoin. Voting takes spot Sept. 14.
• Unlocks
  • Sept. 11: Aptos (APT) to unlock 2.2% of its circulating proviso worthy $50.89 million.
• Token Launches
  • Sept. 11: Sky (SKY) to beryllium listed connected OKX.
  • Sept. 12: Unibase (UB) to beryllium listed connected Binance Alpha, MEXC, and others.

Conferences

• Day 3 of 5: Boston Blockchain Week (Quincy, Massachusetts)

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

• Mantle (MNT) led a wider altcoin leap connected Thursday, rising to a grounds precocious of $1.62 connected the backmost of important measurement connected derivatives speech Bybit.
• The autochthonal token of its namesake's layer-2 web is chiefly a governance token, but is besides wide staked arsenic investors look to unafraid a output connected their holdings.
• The annualized instrumentality of staking MNT connected Coinbase stands astatine 71%, acold much than the 1.86% instrumentality holders get for staking ether (ETH) connected the aforesaid platform.
• This has led to much than 2 thirds of MNT's full proviso being staked, resulting successful a deficiency of proviso connected exchanges amid a question of demand.
• Trading measurement connected Bybit deed $195 cardinal implicit the past 24 hours, an 83% emergence connected the erstwhile 24 hours.
• Open involvement is also up 20%, outpacing the 15% summation successful price, which tin beryllium attributed to traders opening caller leveraged positions to stake connected further upside.
• The caller grounds precocious terms could pave the mode for different altcoins to rally too.
• The "altcoin season" scale roseate to 67/100 connected Thursday, demonstrating trader penchant to commercialized much speculative and little liquidity assets similar MNT arsenic opposed to crypto majors BTC and ETH.

Derivatives Positioning

By Omkar Godbole

• Open involvement (OI) successful BTC futures and perpetual futures listed worldwide remains elevated astatine 736K BTC, conscionable abbreviated of past month's grounds precocious 748K BTC.
• In the past 24 hours the tally has remained comparatively unchanged, alongside tentative trading successful futures tied to altcoins, arsenic traders adopted a cautious stance earlier today's captious U.S. CPI report.
• Volmex’s one-day BTC implied volatility scale continues to fluctuate wrong a months agelong scope of 25% to 50%, indicating that the marketplace is not anticipating important volatility from the CPI announcement. The scale precocious stood astatine 35.50%, suggesting an expected one-day terms question of astir 1.85%.
• Volatility indices linked to ETH, SOL and XRP besides stay locked successful caller ranges.
• On the CME, OI successful bitcoin futures remains depressed astatine multimonth lows, portion OI successful ether continues to recede from caller grounds highs.
• Options, however, amusement the other trend. BTC options OI has accrued to implicit 50,000 BTC, the astir since April. And ether options OI has jumped to 260K ETH, the highest since August 2024.
• On Deribit, 25-delta hazard reversals proceed to grounds a bias toward enactment options successful bitcoin and ether. Flows connected OTC table Paradigm continued to thin bearish, with immoderate traders picking up the September expiry $4,000 ETH put.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 0.26% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday astatine $113,916.87 (24hrs: +1.5%)
• ETH is up 1.93% astatine $4,414.68 (24hrs: +2.32%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 1.24% astatine 4,209.95 (24hrs: +2.13%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 7 bps astatine 2.8%
• BTC backing complaint is astatine 0.0072% (7.9245% annualized) connected Binance

• DXY is up 0.2% astatine 97.98
• Gold futures are down 0.62% astatine $3,659.30
• Silver futures are down 0.34% astatine $41.46
• Nikkei 225 closed up 1.22% astatine 44,372.50
• Hang Seng closed down 0.43% astatine 26,086.32
• FTSE is up 0.38% astatine 9,260.84
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.18% astatine 5,371.28
• DJIA closed connected Wednesday down 0.48% astatine 45,490.92
• S&P 500 closed up 0.3% astatine 6,532.04
• Nasdaq Composite closed unchanged astatine 21,886.06
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.40% astatine 29,179.39
• S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.81% astatine 2,822.97
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury complaint is up 1.3 bps astatine 4.045%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.12% astatine 6,547.50
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.17% astatine 23,917.75
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.11% astatine 45,592.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 58.14% (-0.37%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03872 (1.45%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1030 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $53.17
• Total fees: 4.04 BTC / $456,196
• CME Futures Open Interest: 137,110 BTC
• BTC priced successful gold: 31.5 oz.
• BTC vs golden marketplace cap: 8.86%

Technical Analysis

• S&P 500 e-mini futures person carved retired a rising wedge signifier successful a determination to grounds highs.
• When a rising wedge, which is simply a bearish reversal pattern, appears aft an extended rally to grounds highs, it importantly increases the probability of a crisp downside move. It suggests that buyers are exhausted and the rally is moving connected fumes.
• A imaginable sell-off successful futures could measurement implicit bitcoin and wider crypto market.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed connected Wednesday astatine $315.34 (-1.08%), +0.7% astatine $317.55 successful pre-market
• Circle (CRCL): closed astatine $113.69 (-3.64%), +1.46% astatine $115.35
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed astatine $26.08 (-1.88%), +0.73% astatine $26.27
• Bullish (BLSH): closed astatine $52.62 (-2.21%), +0.72% astatine $53
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed astatine $15.86 (-0.44%), +0.82% astatine $15.99
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed astatine $16.4 (+7.82%), +0.24% astatine $16.44
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed astatine $15.99 (+10.05%), +0.81% astatine $16.12
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed astatine $10.03 (+3.72%), +0.5% astatine $10.08
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed astatine $35.49 (+7.12%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed astatine $27.49 (+2.77%), unchanged successful pre-market

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed astatine $326.45 (-0.63%), +0.57% astatine $328.30
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed astatine $28.02 (-0.18%)
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed astatine $16.09 (-3.6%), +2.05% astatine $16.42
• Upexi (UPXI): closed astatine $5.46 (-0.73%), +2.75% astatine $5.61
• Mei Pharma (MEIP): closed astatine $3.07 (+10.43%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily nett flows: $741.5 million
• Cumulative nett flows: $55.6 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.3 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily nett flows: $171.5 million
• Cumulative nett flows: $12.86 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~6.38 million

Source: Farside Investors

Chart of the Day

• The full circulating proviso of stablecoins connected Ethereum roseate much than $14 cardinal successful August, the biggest summation among apical blockchains.
• The maturation was led by USDC, UDST, USDe.
• The information highlights Ethereum’s dominance successful stablecoins, which stands retired arsenic 1 of the fewer crypto sectors with beardown real-world applications.

While You Were Sleeping

• Blockchain-Based Lender Figure Prices IPO astatine $25 Per Share, Raising Nearly $788M (CoinDesk): Figure priced 31.5M shares astatine $25 each for its Sept. 11 Nasdaq debut nether ticker FIGR, with astir three-quarters recently issued and the remainder sold by existent investors.
• Broad U.S. Price Increases Expected successful August Amid Tariff Pass-Through (Reuters): U.S. CPI apt roseate 0.3% successful August arsenic higher gasoline, java and beef costs kicked in, with depleted pre-tariff inventories present forcing businesses to walk connected import duties.
• Avalanche Blockchain Aims to Raise $1Bn for Crypto-Hoarding Companies (Financial Times): The Avalanche Foundation is successful talks with investors to make 2 crypto treasury vehicles, 1 caller and 1 converted, that would bargain discounted AVAX tokens.