Bitcoin tops $67K following US-Iran peace deal: Is it a bull trap?

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin derivatives amusement anemic condemnation with 2% futures ground and elevated enactment options premium signaling caution.
• Institutional buying via $86 cardinal ETF inflows positive Strategy’s (MSTR US) ongoing accumulation counters marketplace fear.

Bitcoin (BTC) jumped supra $67,000 aft US President Donald Trump announced a precocious Sunday ceasefire woody with Iran. Despite this short-term optimism, derivatives metrics amusement that crypto traders stay highly skeptical, raising concerns that this abrupt rally could beryllium a monolithic bull trap.

Brent crude lipid (left) vs. Nasdaq 100 Index (right). Source: TradingView

Crude Brent lipid declined to a 100-day debased connected Monday, portion the Nasdaq Index gained 3%. However, Bitcoin traders remained cautious owed to the deficiency of a last deadline and wide operational details for shipping companies pursuing the peace woody with Iran, though an interim statement is expected this Friday. 

Bitcoin 2-month futures ground rate. Source: Laevitas

The Bitcoin futures annualized premium (basis rate) stood astatine 2% connected Monday, signaling a deficiency of request for leveraged bullish positions. This indicator has failed to interruption supra the neutral 4% threshold for implicit 3 months, reflecting Bitcoin's -24% year-to-date performance. Still, Bitcoin's 4% regular spike caught abbreviated sellers off-guard, triggering $210 cardinal successful liquidations.

Bitcoin terms is supported by spot ETF inflows and Strategy acquisitions

Part of the bullish sentiment stemmed from the $86 cardinal nett inflows into US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) connected Friday. While positive, this inflow was not astir capable to reverse the dense $730 cardinal successful nett outflows seen since June 5. ETF enactment is wide tracked arsenic a proxy for organization demand, bulls are apt waiting for stronger confirmation.

Bitcoin 30-day options skew (put-call). Source: Laevitas

The anemic condemnation among bulls was besides evident successful the options market, wherever traders actively avoided extortion against downside risk. Bitcoin enactment (sell) options traded astatine a 16% premium implicit telephone (buy) instruments, flashing a wide informing motion of downside fear. This crypto weakness stood retired adjacent much arsenic the Nasdaq 100 Index rallied, trading conscionable 1% shy of its all-time high.

Traders’ skepticism is besides being fueled by conflicting claims implicit aboriginal shipping tolls successful Iran, particularly since the existent statement lone locks successful a two-month window, according to Yahoo Finance. Meanwhile, equity investors are uncovering plentifulness of reasons for optimism elsewhere, with the artificial quality assemblage getting a monolithic boost from the record-breaking SpaceX (SPCX US) IPO.

Public companies Bitcoin treasury ranking, BTC. Source: CoinGecko

SpaceX, the aerospace and artificial quality powerhouse founded by Elon Musk, precocious secured $75 cardinal successful the largest IPO successful history. SPCX shares surged 14% connected Monday, driving the company's valuation to a monolithic $2.1 trillion. The multi-billionaire is simply a vocal proponent of cryptocurrencies, and the latest SEC filings uncover that SpaceX itself holds 18,712 Bitcoin connected its equilibrium sheet.

Related: These Bitcoin charts amusement however BTC terms could deed $100K earlier October

For now, Bitcoin bears support power arsenic persistent weakness crossed derivatives markets shows debased condemnation successful the $60,000 enactment level. However, a sustained rally backmost supra $70,000 could rapidly materialize if falling lipid prices proceed to easiness recession risks, giving the Federal Reserve much country to instrumentality a little restrictive US monetary policy.

There is nary denotation of a bull trap here, particularly arsenic Strategy (MSTR US) continues to aggressively accumulate coins, wholly erasing marketplace fearfulness of a abrupt capitulation.