Bitcoin Traders Bet on Sub-$100K Slide: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

As the crypto marketplace reels nether U.S. stagflation concerns, traders connected the decentralized level Polymarket are seeing a much than 50% accidental of bitcoin (BTC) prices dropping into 5 figures earlier year-end.

Shares successful the Yes broadside of Polymarket's "Will bitcoin dip beneath $100K earlier 2026" declaration traded astatine 55 cents, implying a 55% probability. That pricing looks justified against the backdrop of caller economical data.

"With some manufacturing and services ISMs present weaker than the astir bearish forecasts, the marketplace is coming to presumption with thing darker: Job maturation could beryllium rolling implicit hard," Stephen Innes, managing spouse astatine SPI Asset Management, wrote successful a station connected FXStreet.

"If you measurement these surveys unneurotic by their economical footprint, the implications are staggering — potential NFP prints dropping by implicit 100,000. Not conscionable soft, but recessionary-soft. Yet the kicker? Inflation’s inactive sticky wherever it counts."

Interest-rate traders person already ramped up bets connected a Fed reduction. Still, observers are divided connected whether complaint cuts fueled by economical weakness bode good for hazard assets, including cryptocurrencies.

While little rates often marque riskier assets much attractive, Wall Street appears to expect immoderate pain, and momentum traders person shifted to selling, according to Innes. The aforesaid is existent of bitcoin, with Deribit-listed short-term puts present costing much than calls, reflecting downside concerns.

Even so, the options marketplace sees a little accidental of a sub-$100K bitcoin by year-end than Polymarket. That's evident from the -0.25 delta of the December expiry $100K put. Delta refers to the sensitivity of the option's terms to a alteration successful the underlying plus and represents the probability of the enactment expiring successful profit.

The outlook for ether (ETH) seems much constructive since the SEC said staking activities and the receipt of tokens, nether definite conditions, bash not represent securities offerings. The guidance clears the mode for the regulatory support of spot ether ETFs with staking, which is expected to boost the cryptocurrency's entreaty arsenic a benignant of net bond.

Speaking of the broader market, altcoins appeared anemic compared with majors. The CoinDesk 80 Index traded 2.9% little implicit 24 hours, somewhat much than CoinDesk 20 Index's 2.3%.

In different news, Japan's largest bank, SBI, announced an ETF tied to bitcoin and XRP. A governance connection circulating successful the Metamask assemblage revealed the wallet's program to motorboat a "MetaMask USD" stablecoin done a concern with Stripe's outgo infrastructure.

In accepted markets, futures tied to the S&P 500 traded 0.2% higher, indicating a marginally affirmative unfastened connected Wall Street portion the dollar scale was level astir 98.70. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto
  • Aug. 7, 10 a.m.: Circle volition big a webinar, "The GENIUS Act Era Begins," featuring Dante Disparte and Corey Then. The league volition sermon the archetypal U.S. national outgo stablecoin model and its interaction connected crypto innovation and regulation.
  • Aug. 15: Record day for the next FTX distribution to holders of allowed Class 5 Customer Entitlement, Class 6 General Unsecured and Convenience Claims who conscionable pre-distribution requirements.
  • Aug. 18: Coinbase Derivatives volition launch nano SOL and nano XRP U.S. perpetual-style futures.
• Macro
  • Aug. 6, 2 p.m.: Fed Governor Lisa D. Cook volition present a code titled “U.S. and Global Economy”. Livestream link.
  • Aug. 7, 12:01 a.m.: New U.S. reciprocal tariffs outlined successful President Trump’s July 31 executive order go effectual for a wide scope of trading partners that did not unafraid deals by the Aug. 1 deadline. These tariffs scope from 15% to 41%, depending connected the country.
  • Aug. 7, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases July user terms ostentation data.
    • Core Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.39%
    • Core Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 4.24%
    • Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.28%
    • Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 4.32%
  • Aug. 7, 3 p.m.: Mexico's cardinal bank, Banco de México, announces its monetary argumentation decision.
    • Overnight Interbank Target Rate Est. 7.75% vs. Prev. 8%
  • Aug. 8: Federal Reserve Governor Adriana D. Kugler's resignation becomes effective, creating an aboriginal vacancy connected the Board of Governors that allows President Trump to nominate a successor.
• Earnings (Estimates based connected FactSet data)
  • Aug. 7: Block (XYZ), post-market, $0.67
  • Aug. 7: CleanSpark (CLSK), post-market, $0.19
  • Aug. 7: Coincheck Group (CNCK), post-market
  • Aug. 7: Cipher Mining (CIFR), pre-market
  • Aug. 7: Hut 8 (HUT), pre-market, -$0.08
  • Aug. 8: TeraWulf (WULF), pre-market, -$0.06
  • Aug. 11: Exodus Movement (EXOD), post-market
  • Aug. 12: Bitfarms (BITF), pre-market
  • Aug. 12: Fold Holdings (FLD), post-market

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • Arbitrum DAO is voting to renew its partnership with Entropy Advisors for 2 much years, starting September 2025. The connection includes $6 cardinal successful backing and 15 cardinal ARB for incentives for Entropy to absorption connected treasury management, inducement design, information infrastructure, and ecosystem growth. Voting ends Aug. 7.
  • BendDAO is voting connected a plan to stabilize BEND by burning 50% of treasury tokens, restarting lender rewards and launching monthly buybacks utilizing 20% of protocol revenue. Voting ends Aug. 10.
  • 1inch DAO is voting connected a $1.88 cardinal assistance to money its information successful 9 planetary crypto events done precocious 2025. The connection aims to boost developer engagement, turn organization ties and grow adoption crossed ecosystems similar Ethereum and Solana. Voting ends Aug. 10.
  • Aug. 6, 1 p.m.: Livepeer to big a fireside connected Twitter and Discord.
  • Aug. 7, 12 p.m.: Celo to big a governance call.
  • Aug. 8, 11:30 a.m.: Axie Infinity to host a municipality hall connected Discord.
• Unlocks
  • Aug. 9: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.3% of its circulating proviso worthy $12.32 million.
  • Aug. 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.73% of its circulating proviso worthy $48.18 million.
  • Aug. 15: Avalanche (AVAX) to unlock 0.39% of its circulating proviso worthy $36.87 million.
  • Aug. 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.53% of its circulating proviso worthy $14.77 million.
  • Aug. 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 0.96% of its circulating proviso worthy $15.92 million.
  • Aug. 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 1.8% of its circulating proviso worthy $35.82 million.
  • Aug. 18: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 4.64% of its circulating proviso worthy $91.4 million.
• Token Launches
  • Aug. 6: Worldcoin (WLD) to beryllium listed connected Binance.US.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known arsenic State of Crypto) is simply a one-day boutique lawsuit held successful Washington connected Sept. 10 that allows wide counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to conscionable with nationalist officials liable for crypto authorities and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use codification CDB10 for 10% disconnected your registration done Aug. 31.

• Day 3 of 3: The Science of Blockchain Conference 2025 (Berkeley, California)
• Day 1 of 2: Blockchain Rio 2025 (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)
• Day 1 of 5: Rare EVO (Las Vegas)
• Aug. 7-8: bitcoin++ (Riga, Latvia)
• Aug. 9-10: Baltic Honeybadger 2025 (Riga, Latvia)
• Aug. 9-10: Conviction 2025 (Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam)
• Aug. 11: Paraguay Blockchain Summit 2025 (Asuncion)
• Aug. 11-13: AIBB 2025 (Istanbul)
• Aug. 11-17: Ethereum NYC (New York)

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

• Pump.fun reclaimed the pb successful Solana token launches with 13,690 caller tokens successful 24 hours, somewhat up of LetsBonk.fun’s 13,392, according to Dune Analytics data.
• Despite trailing successful token count, LetsBonk retained the borderline successful regular trading measurement astatine $87.7 million, compared with Pump’s $82.4 million.
• The resurgence successful Pump’s enactment coincides with renewed momentum for its autochthonal PUMP token, which has rebounded 17.8% implicit the past week to $0.003247. It's inactive down 52% from its post-ICO peak.
• Pump raised $600 cardinal successful 12 minutes during past months' ICO and has begun a multimillion-dollar buyback, according to on-chain information — a determination that whitethorn beryllium stabilizing sentiment.
• LetsBonk, backed by the Bonk assemblage and integrated with Raydium’s LaunchLab, channels fractional of its interest gross into BONK token burns, portion besides supporting BONKsol and different Solana ecosystem initiatives.
• Solana, for its part, faces competitory unit from Base, wherever token motorboat enactment has surpassed Solana successful earthy numbers. That's driven by the Base App’s integration of Zora and Farcaster, which automatically mints societal posts arsenic ERC-20 tokens.
• While Solana inactive leads successful memecoin trading volume, Base’s accelerated maturation signals a shifting dynamic, peculiarly successful experimentation and social-driven token creation.

Derivatives Positioning

• Futures unfastened involvement successful the apical 10 coins excluding BTC dropped 4% to 10% successful the past 24 hours, indicating superior outflows from the market. BTC's unfastened involvement held flat.
• Funding rates inactive stay supra an annualized 5% for astir large tokens indicating a dominance of bullish agelong bets. It besides means imaginable for agelong liquidations should prices proceed to drop.
• Bitcoin's CME futures besides bespeak superior outflows, with unfastened involvement successful modular contracts (sized astatine 5 BTC) astatine lowest since precocious April. The ground successful BTC and ETH futures remains locked betwixt 5% and 10%, showing nary signs of improvement.
• On Deribit, BTC and ETH options hazard reversals present amusement bearish (put) bias retired to October expiry. Block flows connected OTC table Paradigm featured rollover of BTC puts.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 0.237% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday astatine $114,105.72 (24hrs: -0.55%)
• ETH is up 1.39% astatine $3,626.69 (24hrs: -1.34%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 0.78% astatine 3,768.88 (24hrs: -2.33%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 7 bps astatine 2.93%
• BTC backing complaint is astatine 0.0086% (9.3699% annualized) connected Binance

• DXY is unchanged astatine 98.73
• Gold futures are down 0.56% astatine $3,415.60
• Silver futures are unchanged astatine $37.80
• Nikkei 225 closed up 0.6% astatine 40,794.86
• Hang Seng closed unchanged astatine 24,910.63
• FTSE is up 0.22% astatine 9,162.81
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.28% astatine 5,264.22
• DJIA closed connected Tuesday down 0.14% astatine 44,111.74
• S&P 500 closed down 0.49% astatine 6,299.19
• Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.65% astatine 20,916.55
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 2.03% astatine 27,570.08
• S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.71% astatine 2,590.51
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury complaint is up 4.3 bps astatine 4.239%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.23% astatine 6,339.50
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged astatine 23,141.75
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.31% astatine 44,374.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 61.82% (unchanged)
• Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03177 (+0.38%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 952 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $56.64
• Total Fees: 3.67 BTC / $418,957
• CME Futures Open Interest: 137,790 BTC
• BTC priced successful gold: 33.7 oz
• BTC vs golden marketplace cap: 9.53%

Technical Analysis

• The ether-bitcoin (ETH/BTC) brace has formed a bull emblem signifier connected the regular chart. The signifier represents a impermanent intermission successful the archetypal uptrend that usually refreshes higher.
• A determination done the precocious extremity of the emblem would awesome the resumption of the ether rally comparative to bitcoin.

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed connected Tuesday astatine $375.46 (-3.54%), +0.87% astatine $378.71 successful pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed astatine $297.99 (-6.34%), +1.41% astatine $302.18
• Circle (CRCL): closed astatine $153.93 (-6.61%), -1.3% astatine $151.93
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed astatine $27.68 (-4.19%), -0.58% astatine $27.52
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed astatine $15.62 (-2.62%), unchanged successful pre-market
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed astatine $11.13 (-2.54%), unchanged successful pre-market
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed astatine $14.08 (+3.15%), -0.43% astatine $14.02
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed astatine $10.83 (+1.98%), +0.37% astatine $10.87
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed astatine $24.85 (+0.08%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed astatine $34.87 (-1.41%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed astatine $28.9 (-2.27%), +0.69% astatine $29.10
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed astatine $20.23 (+5.69%), -1.33% astatine $19.96

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily nett flows: -$196.2 million
• Cumulative nett flows: $53.63 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily nett flows: $73.3 million
• Cumulative nett flows: $9.12 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~5.57 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• The illustration shows regular nett inflow of ether into centralized exchanges.
• Recently, determination person been ample outflows, a motion of investors accumulating the cryptocurrency connected the dip.

While You Were Sleeping

• Bitcoin ETFs Bleed Millions for 4th Straight Day arsenic U.S. Stagflation Fears Weigh connected BTC and Stocks (CoinDesk): Tuesday’s U.S. ISM services PMI showed tariff-driven inflation, anemic employment and commercialized disruptions — signs of stagflation, a worst-case script for hazard assets similar tech stocks and crypto.
• Swiss President Set to Meet Rubio connected Wednesday to Avert Tariffs (Bloomberg): Talks are analyzable by a $38 cardinal U.S. commercialized shortage driven by golden and pharmaceuticals, with analysts informing the projected 39% tariff could endanger up to 1% of Swiss economical output.
• Leveraged Bearish Strategy ETF Surges 19%, Signals Dour Outlook for MSTR and Bitcoin (CoinDesk): The Defiance 2x Short MSTR ETF, up 19% past week, has seen a nett inflow of $16.3 cardinal successful the past six months, portion its bullish counterpart experienced important outflows.
• China Warns Worldcoin-Style Iris Scanning a National Security Threat (CoinDesk): China’s Ministry of State Security warned that incentivized iris scans could let overseas firms to exfiltrate biometric data, raising concerns astir surveillance maltreatment and deepfake-enabled infiltration by quality services.
• India’s Central Bank Holds Rates Amid Rising Tariff Tensions With Donald Trump (Financial Times): The RBI kept its repo complaint astatine 5.5%, citing tariff uncertainty and the still-unfolding interaction of 100 ground points successful cuts this twelvemonth arsenic the U.S. threatens much tariffs implicit India’s Russian lipid imports.
• Trump Just Got a Fresh Shot astatine Bending the Fed to His Will (The Wall Street Journal): Adriana Kugler’s aboriginal resignation lets the president name a rate-setter now, perchance 1 who tin unit Chair Jerome Powell, advocator complaint cuts and awesome succession plans, depending connected whether the prime is strategical oregon short-term.

In the Ether