Bitcoin Traders Watch CPI for Fed Cues: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Well, it's that clip of the period erstwhile the marketplace holds its enactment for the latest U.S. ostentation figures, which acceptable the code for the Fed's interest-rate policy. Bloomberg's statement estimates bespeak the July figure, owed astatine 8:30 a.m., is apt to amusement an summation successful prices, driven by President Trump's tariffs.

Some traders person already begun hedging with short-dated bitcoin (BTC) enactment options successful the $115,000–$118,000 range.

But here's the absorbing part: Implied volatility metrics aren't showing immoderate signs of panic. Volmex's 24-hour bitcoin implied volatility index stood astatine an annualized 31%, easy wrong its caller range, equating to an expected terms plaything of conscionable 1.6% successful the adjacent 24 hours. The gauges for ether (ETH), solana (SOL) and XRP (XRP) showed expected swings of 3.29%, 2.9% and 4.5%, respectively. None are retired of the ordinary.

Still, traders whitethorn privation to stay vigilant due to the fact that August is known to bring important volatility successful stocks, which could rapidly spill implicit into the crypto market. Wall Street's alleged fearfulness gauge, the VIX, which measures the 30-day implied volatility successful the S&P 500, spiked connected Aug. 1 earlier calming down, a signifier that has historically presaged a surge successful volatility.

"Curiously the VIX made a little spike close astir erstwhile the seasonal representation said it would, and past subsequently has besides calmed backmost down close connected cue," Callum Thomas, the laminitis and caput of probe astatine Topdown Charts, noted. "The accusation is that if this seasonal script-following persists past we are successful for immoderate heightened volatility successful the coming weeks and months."

It's worthy remembering that volatility is price-agnostic and tin unfold bullishly if the CPI prints little than expected. That would beryllium a affirmative astonishment to hazard assets similar cryptocurrencies.

Ether (ETH) mightiness payment the most, arsenic it has precocious led BTC higher connected the backmost of firm adoption.

"Ethereum, supported by organization inflows and firm treasury buying, has a imaginable way toward investigating anterior all-time highs if conditions stay favorable," XBTO's main concern serviceman Javier Rodriguez-Alarcón said successful an email. BTC continues to service arsenic an anchor, helium said. In contrast, the broader marketplace remains concentrated astatine the top, according to Alarcón.

In accepted markets, golden could registry crisp losses successful the lawsuit of hotter-than-expected CPI, arsenic its persistent nonaccomplishment to signifier rallies supra $3,400 since April suggests bullish exhaustion. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto
  • Aug. 15: Record day for the next FTX distribution to holders of allowed Class 5 Customer Entitlement, Class 6 General Unsecured and Convenience Claims who conscionable pre-distribution requirements.
  • Aug. 18: Coinbase Derivatives volition launch nano SOL and nano XRP U.S. perpetual-style futures.
  • Aug. 20: Qubic (QUBIC), the fastest blockchain ever recorded, astatine implicit 15 cardinal transactions per 2nd and powered by Useful Proof of Work (UPoW), volition acquisition its archetypal yearly halving event arsenic portion of a controlled emanation model. Although gross emissions stay fixed astatine 1 trillion QUBIC tokens per week, the adaptive pain complaint approved by the network’s Computors, the cardinal validators and determination makers, volition summation substantially — burning immoderate 28.75 trillion tokens and reducing nett effectual emissions to astir 21.25 trillion tokens.
• Macro
  • Aug. 12, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases July user terms ostentation data.
    • Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.37% vs. Prev. 0.24%
    • Inflation Rate YoY Est. 5.34% vs. Prev. 5.35%
  • Aug. 12, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases July user terms ostentation data.
    • Core Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.2%
    • Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 3% vs. Prev. 2.9%
    • Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0.3%
    • Inflation Rate YoY Est. 2.8% vs. Prev. 2.7%
  • Aug. 13: A bid of virtual meetings involving European leaders, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, NATO main Mark Rutte, U.S. President Donald Trump and U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance among others to coordinate Ukraine support, use unit connected Russia and sermon bid talks.
  • Aug. 13, 3 p.m.: Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics and Census releases July user terms ostentation data.
    • Inflation Rate MoM Est. 1.8% vs. Prev. 1.6%
    • Inflation Rate YoY Est. 36.4% vs. Prev. 39.4%
  • Aug. 14, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases July shaper terms ostentation data.
    • Core PPI MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0.0%
    • Core PPI YoY Est. 2.9% vs. Prev. 2.6%
    • PPI MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0%
    • PPI YoY Est. 2.5% vs. Prev. 2.3%
  • Aug. 14, 7 p.m.: Peru's cardinal slope announces its monetary argumentation decision.
    • Reference Interest Rate Est. 4.5% vs. Prev. 4.5%
  • Aug. 14, 10 p.m.: El Salvador's Statistics and Census Office, which is portion of the Central Reserve Bank of El Salvador, releases July user terms ostentation data.
    • Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.32%
    • Inflation Rate YoY Prev. -0.17%
• Earnings (Estimates based connected FactSet data)
  • Aug. 12: Bitfarms (BITF), pre-market, -$0.02
  • Aug. 12: Circle Internet Group (CRCL), pre-market
  • Aug. 12: CoreWeave (CRWV), post-market
  • Aug. 12: Fold Holdings (FLD), post-market
  • Aug. 14: KULR Technology Group (KULR), post-market
  • Aug. 15: Sharplink Gaming (SBET), pre-market
  • Aug. 15: BitFuFu (FUFU), pre-market, $0.07
  • Aug. 18: Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR), pre-market, -$0.12

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • Compound DAO is voting to name ChainSecurity and Certora arsenic associated information provers, with ZeroShadow handling incidental effect nether a $2 million, 12-month COMP-streamed fund starting Aug. 18. Voting ends Aug. 13.
  • Aavegotchi DAO is voting connected a Bitcoin Ben’s Crypto Club Las Vegas sponsorship: a $1,000/month firm rank (logo connected sponsor wall, squad access, newsletter feature, 1 branded meetup/month) oregon a $5,000, 90-day Graffiti Wall mural with promo. Voting ends Aug. 23.
  • Aug. 12, 10 a.m.: Maple Finance, Aave, Elixir, OpenEden and Mento to enactment connected a Stablecoin Summer X spaces session hosted by Chainlink.
  • Aug. 14, 10 a.m.: Lido to big a tokenholder update Call.
  • Aug. 14, 10 a.m.: Stacks to big a townhall meeting.
• Unlocks
  • Aug. 15: Avalanche (AVAX) to unlock 0.39% of its circulating proviso worthy $38.25 million.
  • Aug. 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.53% of its circulating proviso worthy $16.21 million.
  • Aug. 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 0.96% of its circulating proviso worthy $16.89 million.
  • Aug. 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 1.8% of its circulating proviso worthy $40.76 million.
  • Aug. 18: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 4.64% of its circulating proviso worthy $91.6 million.
  • Aug. 20: LayerZero (ZRO) to unlock 8.53% of its circulating proviso worthy $56.56 million.
  • Aug. 20: Kaito (KAITO) to unlock 8.82% of its circulating proviso worthy $26.15 million.
• Token Launches
  • Aug. 12: World3 (WAI) to beryllium listed connected Binance Alpha, MEXC, Bitget and others.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known arsenic State of Crypto) is simply a one-day boutique lawsuit held successful Washington connected Sept. 10 that allows wide counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to conscionable with nationalist officials liable for crypto authorities and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use codification CDB10 for 10% disconnected your registration done Aug. 31.

• Day 2 of 3: AIBB 2025 (Istanbul)
• Day 2 of 7: Ethereum NYC (New York)
• Aug. 13-14: CryptoWinter ‘25 (Queenstown, New Zealand)
• Aug. 15: Bitcoin Educators Unconference (Vancouver)
• Aug. 17-21: Crypto 2025 (Santa Barbara, California)
• Aug. 18-21: Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2025 (Jackson Hole)

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

• Ethena surpassed $11.89B successful TVL, becoming the sixth DeFi protocol to transverse $10B and the 2nd non-staking exemplary aft Aave to bash so. The sUSDe APY sits astatine 4.72%, attracting yield-focused investors.
• The protocol’s standard underscores increasing appetite for non-staking DeFi models and could power aboriginal designs. Market absorption has been broadly positive, with manufacture figures noting the milestone’s significance.
• USDe maintains a $1 peg with a $10.48B marketplace headdress and $371.97M successful 24-hour volume.
• Polymarket volition modulation UMA’s oracle from OOV2 to MOOV2 aft governance approval, restricting marketplace solution proposals to a whitelist of vetted participants.
• The alteration aims to trim disputes and marketplace manipulation by ensuring proposals are submitted by experienced users, portion keeping quality rights unfastened to all.
• The archetypal whitelist includes 37 addresses, with the displacement framed arsenic moving from unfastened debates to a much controlled council-style solution process.
• Pudgy Penguins secured Formula 1 branding astatine the Singapore Grand Prix aft winning Kraken’s memecoin trading contest. PENGU branding volition look connected Williams Racing’s FW47 car.
• The token gained 55.1% implicit the past 30 days portion dipping 11.8% successful 24 hours, partially rebounding with a 1.4% intraday gain.
• The vulnerability is expected to boost visibility among mainstream audiences and fortify Kraken’s propulsion into sports-linked crypto promotions.

Derivatives

• Futures unfastened involvement successful large tokens has decreased implicit the past 24 hours, indicating a superior outflow. It's besides suggestive of terms losses being driven by the unwinding of agelong positions alternatively than outright abbreviated sales.
• XMR's perpetual futures look overheated, with annualized backing rates exceeding 200%. The highly precocious fig whitethorn punctual arbitrageurs to instrumentality a simultaneous agelong presumption successful the spot marketplace and a abbreviated presumption successful futures, allowing them to pouch the backing safely.
• Funding rates for different large tokens stay pinned astatine astir 10%, reflecting a moderately bullish bias.
• On the CME, unfastened involvement successful ETH futures has seen a renewed uptick from 1.51 cardinal ETH to 1.70 million. Meanwhile, BTC unfastened involvement remains level adjacent 138K BTC, the lowest since April.
• On Deribit, BTC options retired to August expiry amusement a flimsy bias toward protective enactment options. ETH options, meanwhile, amusement a bullish bias crossed each tenors.
• ETH's IV word operation steepened portion BTC IVs stay unchanged. Flows implicit OTC table Paradigm featured a agelong presumption successful the BTC $115K enactment expiring connected Aug. 13 and request for $!50K calls expiring successful September.
• Volumes were substantial, with $3.3 cardinal traded astatine Paradigm.

Market Movements

• BTC is down 0.35% from 4 p.m. ET Monday astatine $118,412.69 (24hrs: -2.36%)
• ETH is down 1.17% astatine $4,195.12 (24hrs: +1.05%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 0.35% astatine 4,082.37 (24hrs: -2.6%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 1 bp astatine 2.92%
• BTC backing complaint is astatine 0.005% (5.4827% annualized) connected Binance

• DXY is unchanged astatine 98.58
• Gold futures are down 0.21% astatine $3,397.50
• Silver futures are unchanged astatine $37.78
• Nikkei 225 closed up 2.15% astatine 42,718.17
• Hang Seng closed up 0.25% astatine 24,969.68
• FTSE is up 0.34% astatine 9,161.10
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.14% astatine 5,324.34
• DJIA closed connected Monday down 0.45% astatine 43,975.09
• S&P 500 closed down 0.25% astatine 6,373.45
• Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.30% astatine 21,385.40
• S&P/TSX Composite closed unchanged astatine 27,775.23
• S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.36% astatine 2,648.54
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury complaint is unchanged astatine 4.275%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged astatine 6,403.25
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged astatine 23,643.75
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.12% astatine 44,138.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 60.56% (-0.27%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03619 (1.69%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 893 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $58.16
• Total fees: 4.42 BTC / $531,812
• CME Futures Open Interest: 138,165 BTC
• BTC priced successful gold: 35.4 oz.
• BTC vs golden marketplace cap: 10.02%

Technical Analysis

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has dived retired of an ascending transmission aft failing to penetrate the December-January top.
• The signifier is indicative of purchaser exhaustion and points to a imaginable correction ahead.

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed connected Monday astatine $400.25 (+1.3%), -0.56% astatine $398 successful pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed astatine $319.62 (+2.92%), +0.4% astatine $320.91
• Circle (CRCL): closed astatine $161.17 (+1.35%), +0.92% astatine $162.66
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed astatine $28.48 (+2.52%), -1.93% astatine $27.93
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed astatine $15.66 (+1.82%), -0.89% astatine $15.52
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed astatine $11.11 (+0.27%), -0.36% astatine $11.07
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed astatine $14.53 (+0.83%), +0.21% astatine $14.56
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed astatine $9.87 (-1.99%), -1.11% astatine $9.76
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed astatine $25.06 (+0.4%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed astatine $35.28 (-2.35%), -1.19% astatine $34.86
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed astatine $30.12 (-5.58%), unchanged successful pre-market
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed astatine $22.34 (-6.63%), +0.27% astatine $22.40

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily nett flows: $178.1 million
• Cumulative nett flows: $54.59 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily nett flows: $1.02 billion
• Cumulative nett flows: $10.85 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~5.77 million

Source: Farside Investors

Chart of the Day

• Volmex's bitcoin one-day implied volatility scale remains locked successful a sideways scope contempt concerns today's U.S. CPI information could amusement accrued terms pressures successful the economy.
• The calm means the marketplace mightiness respond violently should the CPI people supra estimates.

While You Were Sleeping

• Bitcoin $115K Bets In Demand arsenic Downside Fear Grips Market Ahead of U.S. CPI Report (CoinDesk): Some bitcoin traders are buying short-term $115K enactment options to defender against a hotter-then-estimated CPI reading. One expert says cooler ostentation would reenforce expectations for a Federal Reserve complaint chopped successful September.
• U.S. Spot Ether ETFs Hit $1B Daily Inflow for First Time (CoinDesk): BlackRock's ETHA led the way, registering inflows of conscionable nether $640 million, portion Fidelity's FETH came 2nd with $276.9 million.
• Watch Out for Potential Bitcoin Double Top arsenic Bulls Fail to Break $122K Again (CoinDesk): Bitcoin’s latest rally stalled aft doubly failing to wide a large absorption level, with analysts watching whether a wide interruption beneath $111,982 could pave the mode for a descent toward $100,000.
• Sidelined From Trump-Putin Talks, Ukraine Warns the World Not to Trust Russia (CNBC): Ukraine President Zelenskyy, excluded from Friday's Trump-Putin summit, said Russia is gearing up for caller offensives and fears concealed negotiations could unit Kyiv into ceding territory without its consent.
• China Urges Firms Not to Use Nvidia H20 Chips successful New Guidance (Bloomberg): Beijing is acrophobic that China-only versions of Nvidia and AMD AI chips could person functions specified arsenic distant shutdown, and is urging firms to debar them successful authorities oregon security-sensitive work.
• Mexican Peso Soars arsenic ‘Carry Trade’ Reignites After Tariff Delays (Financial Times): The currency has strengthened from astir 21 to conscionable implicit 18.5 per dollar arsenic investors get overseas to bargain section bonds, boosted by the 90-day tariff intermission Mexico secured July 31.

In the Ether