Bitcoin vs. gold: BTC is a 'better opportunity' than in 2017, data says

Bitcoin (BTC) fell to a grounds debased versus golden (XAU) successful January, making it a amended buying accidental than what preceded the 2015–2017 bull market, analysts say.

Key takeaways:

• BTC vs golden deed a grounds low, a level that has lined up with past large bottoms.

• Some analysts pass that a rotation to BTC from golden is not guaranteed.

Gold-to-Bitcoin rotation could commencement successful February

On Saturday, Bitcoin’s worth compared to golden fell to its lowest level ever aft adjusting for the planetary wealth supply, data from Bitwise Europe showed.

The indicator shows erstwhile Bitcoin is unusually beardown oregon anemic versus gold. It has present moved adjacent an utmost portion (the -2 level successful the illustration below) that successful the past appeared astir BTC marketplace bottoms.

BTC/XAU ratio Z-score. Source: Bitwise

The past clip this set fell to akin levels was successful 2015, indicating utmost BTC undervaluation to gold. That preceded 11,800% BTC terms gains to $20,000 from astir $165 wrong conscionable 2 years. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe said successful a Saturday X post:

His remark echoed analysts who expect immoderate superior to rotate from golden into Bitcoin this year.

That includes Bitwise European caput of research, André Dragosch, and Swyftx pb expert Pav Hundal. The second said specified rotations could commencement occurring successful February oregon March.

Capital rotation “might not hap quickly”

The bullish views emerged arsenic golden prices person doubled implicit the past year, portion Bitcoin has fallen by 18% implicit the aforesaid period.

XAU/USD vs. BTC/USD. Source: TradingView

But not everyone agreed that a rotation from precious metals to Bitcoin is imminent, including expert Benjamin Cowen.

He said Bitcoin’s downtrend whitethorn past longer than galore holders expect, arguing BTC is “likely going to support bleeding against the banal market” and that hopes for a “massive rotation” retired of golden and metallic could beryllium misplaced successful the abbreviated term.

Related: Gold is acting similar the hedge Bitcoin promised to be

Citi said that metallic could widen its gains successful the adjacent fewer months owed to request from China and a weaker US dollar. Likewise, RBC Capital Markets predicted gold’s terms to scope $7,000 by 2026’s end.

Cowen said that adjacent if precious metals enactment strong, the determination into Bitcoin is “probably not going to happen” quickly.

Bitcoin semipermanent holders sorb January sell-off

Despite Bitcoin’s crisp pullback successful January, on-chain information shows semipermanent holders are softly rebuilding positions.

The proviso held by Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holders (LTH), entities that clasp BTC for implicit 155 days, began recovering during the January selloff.

Bitcoin LTH binary spending indicator. Source: CheckOnChain.COM

Also, the LTH Spent Binary, a metric that shows whether semipermanent Bitcoin holders are selling oregon staying put, continued to diminution during this period.

In past cycles, recovering LTH proviso and declining LTH Spent Binary preceded the enactment of durable BTC bottoms, according to expert Anil.

A caller illustration came aft the April 2025 lows: semipermanent holder proviso began to retrieve first, and BTC followed with a crisp rebound astir a period later, rallying astir 60% from the lows.

These trends suggest that the much diligent holders are taking vantage of BTC’s terms driblet successful January, often the benignant of reset that helps Bitcoin physique a stronger basal for gains successful the future.