Bitcoin win rate vs. S&P 500 recovers as post-midterm history favors stocks

53 minutes ago

Bitcoin (BTC) has outperformed the S&P 500 successful fractional of US trading sessions implicit Glassnode’s latest measurement period, ending a prolonged agelong of losing much sessions than it won.

Key points:

Bitcoin bushed the S&P 500 by returns successful 50% of US trading sessions implicit the past 90 sessions, per Glassnode data.
Bitcoin’s league triumph complaint has not exceeded 50% since March 2025.
The S&P 500 gained an mean of 10.7% successful the 3 months aft the 7 midterm elections since 1922 successful which Democrats won some chambers nether a Republican president.

Bitcoin ends agelong of weakness against S&P 500

Data from onchain analytics level Glassnode shows that Bitcoin outperformed the S&P 500 successful 50% of Wall Street trading sessions implicit a rolling 90-session period.

The reading, covering the 90 sessions done Wednesday, marks an betterment aft an extended play successful which Bitcoin mislaid much sessions than it won.

“The triumph complaint has not been supra 50% since March 2025; for astir of the past year, Bitcoin mislaid much sessions than it won,” Glassnode wrote successful the latest variation of its regular newsletter, The Week Onchain.

“A instrumentality to an adjacent divided ends a agelong long of underperformance. Should the triumph complaint ascent supra 50% and clasp there, it would amusement Bitcoin regaining spot against equities.”

BTC/USD vs. S&P 500 per-session returns. Source: Glassnode

Glassnode added that Bitcoin’s mean per-session gains were besides “slightly higher” than those of the S&P 500.

Historical information favors stocks aft Democratic midterm sweeps

Democrats’ wins successful the US midterm elections person besides drawn attraction to humanities banal marketplace gains pursuing akin results.

Data from crypto plus manager Capriole Investments shows that Democratic sweeps of Congress nether Republican presidents person historically been followed by beardown S&P 500 returns.

Of the 26 midterm elections since 1922 (excluding this year’s vote), Democrats won some the House and Senate nether a Republican president 7 times. The S&P 500 gained an mean of 10.7% implicit the pursuing 3 months.

Average gains were 17.5% aft six months and 15.5% aft a year.

“There is simply nary amended predetermination effect for markets than we conscionable had,” Capriole laminitis Charles Edwards commented connected the information successful a station connected X.

S&P 500 show based connected Midterm Election outcome. Source: Charles Edwards connected X.com

Data from TradingView puts Bitcoin’s rolling 20-day correlation with the S&P 500 astatine 0.63. The measurement has go markedly affirmative since August, erstwhile both crypto and stocks gained arsenic the US Treasury expanded its indebtedness buybacks.