Can Bitcoin hit $250K this year? Traders say it may be time to ‘sell in May’

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading astir 40% beneath its October 2025 grounds precocious adjacent $126,000 contempt its ongoing recovery.

BTC/USD regular chart. Source: TradingView

Still, immoderate of the cryptocurrency's loudest bulls, including billionaire capitalist Tim Draper and Fundstrat’s co-founder Tom Lee, person not backed down from their $250,000 year-end prediction, a people that would necessitate much than a threefold rally from existent levels.

Is that realistic, oregon is Bitcoin’s latest drawdown a informing that the rhythm has already peaked?

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin's selloff whitethorn resume owed to a bearish continuation setup.
• Halving and midterm predetermination fractals look bearish for the BTC terms successful 2026.

Veteran trader warns of much BTC terms decline

Peter Brandt, a seasoned futures marketplace trader, highlighted a maturing carnivore emblem transmission connected the Bitcoin regular chart, which could support BTC's likelihood of rising toward $250,000 this twelvemonth low.

As of Tuesday, BTC was showing signs of a pullback aft investigating the flag's precocious bound adjacent $79,500 arsenic resistance. The cryptocurrency risks declining toward the flag's little bound astir the $69,000 level by May if the correction persists.

Those of you predicting $250,000 successful 2026 request to halt with the mushrooms
This is called a transmission While it does not preclude further terms gains, it is NOT a bullish bottoming pattern

Source: X

A carnivore emblem afloat resolves erstwhile the terms decisively breaks beneath the little bound and drops to a level astatine magnitude adjacent to the tallness of the erstwhile downtrend.

A interruption beneath the flag's little inclination enactment whitethorn propulsion the BTC terms nether $50,000 if the method setup plays retired arsenic intended.

BTC/USD regular chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin halving fractals amusement the carnivore marketplace is midway

BTC’s terms cycles person historically followed a wide signifier tied to its halvings each 4 years.

Cycle peaks person consistently occurred 12 to 18 months aft the event. In 2012, the highest arrived successful 12 months. The 2016 halving saw its apical successful 17 months, portion the 2020 halving peaked aft 18 months.

The April 2024 halving fits this timeline. Bitcoin deed its all-time precocious of $126,000 successful October 2025, astir 17–18 months later.

Bitcoin terms show since halving

Now, successful precocious April 2026 (over 24 months post-halving), BTC trades astir $77,000, down 38%–40% from that peak. This alignment suggests the 2025 precocious whitethorn correspond the rhythm top, casting uncertainty connected caller highs for the remainder of 2026.

Bitcoin sell-off whitethorn resume successful May

A chart by expert Merlijn The Trader is adding to the cautious narrative, pointing to a recurring “Sell successful May” signifier successful US mid-term predetermination years.

For instance, BTC dropped 61% successful 2014, 65% successful 2018, and 66% successful 2022, each opening astir May of the predetermination years.

BTC/USD one-month chart. Source: TradingView/Merlijn The Trader

Applying a akin model to 2026, Merlijn projected a imaginable diminution of implicit 60%, which would spot BTC adjacent the $30,000 level.

In a February report, Capital Group analysts Matt Miller and Chris Buchbinder said midterm elections often rise uncertainty implicit legislature power and argumentation direction. As run rhetoric heats up successful the spring, investors thin to chopped risk, dilatory buying, and brace for volatility.

That backdrop weakens the lawsuit for Bitcoin reaching $250,000 by year-end, adjacent though respective analysts, including those from Bernstein, spot country for a much humble rebound toward the $100,000–$150,000 range.