1 day ago
Key takeaways:
ETH ETFs person opened access, but flows stay cyclical.
SOL’s plumbing is set: CME futures are live, with options slated for Oct. 13 (pending approval).
The SEC’s generic standards present let faster spot-commodity ETP listings beyond BTC and ETH.
For SOL to outperform ETH, it volition request sustained creations, choky hedging, existent onchain usage and continued developer momentum.
It’s existent that Ether (ETH) already has the caput commencement successful the exchange-traded money (ETF) race: Spot Ether ETFs began trading connected July 23, 2024, attracting astir $107 million successful first-day nett inflows and opening a mainstream way for investors done brokers and status accounts.
However, Solana’s (SOL) marketplace infrastructure is catching up. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) launched Solana futures connected March 17, 2025, with options slated for Oct. 13.
In September 2025, the US Securities and Exchange Commission adopted “generic listing standards” that streamline however exchanges tin database spot commodity exchange-traded products (ETPs), perchance widening the gross beyond Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether.
Also, extracurricular the US, SOL already trades successful regulated concern wrappers done Europe’s 21Shares and Canada’s 3iQ.
With that entree already successful place, the question is whether a US SOL ETF tin substance lasting request that allows Solana to outperform Ether connected some terms and fundamentals.
Before tackling that, let’s acceptable the context.
What ETH ETFs changed, and what they didn’t
Spot Ether ETFs began trading successful the US connected July 23, 2024. On the archetypal day, they recorded astir $1 cardinal successful trading measurement and astir $107 cardinal successful nett inflows, opening a mainstream transmission for investors specified arsenic registered concern advisers (RIAs) and institutions. However, this inactive trailed the standard of Bitcoin’s ETF debut successful January.
Flows since past person been cyclical. Through mid-2025, ETH experienced periods of nett creations punctuated by outflows. By precocious August and mid-September 2025, reports showed renewed strength, with multi-week inflows into Ether products that lifted full crypto assets nether absorption (AUM). In short, ETFs improved access, but they did not destruct marketplace cycles.
At times successful 2025, Ether outperformed galore large-cap crypto assets, supported by dependable ETF request and disposable organization and treasury accumulation. This signifier suggests that portion ETFs bash not change halfway web fundamentals, they tin power which plus leads during phases of superior rotation.
One plan prime inactive matters: US ETH ETFs launched without staking, limiting their income imaginable compared with holding autochthonal ETH directly. The SEC is actively reviewing proposals to let staking but, arsenic of October 2025, has delayed decisions crossed aggregate issuers. If staking is permitted — adjacent partially — it could displacement the trade-offs betwixt ETF holdings and nonstop ownership.
Did you know? US exchanges people an indicative nett plus worth (iNAV) astir each 15 seconds, allowing traders to spot wherever an ETF should beryllium priced intraday.
Solana today: Usage, maturation and risks
In Q2 2025, Solana generated implicit $271 cardinal successful web revenue, marking its 3rd consecutive 4th starring each layer-1 (L1) and layer-2 (L2) chains. In June, information showed Solana matched the combined monthly progressive addresses of each different large L1s and L2s — beardown indicators of usage intensity.
In January 2025, Solana processed $59.2 cardinal successful peer-to-peer (P2P) stablecoin transfers, a crisp rebound from the lows of precocious 2024. The proviso of USDC connected Solana stands astatine astir $9.35 billion, portion the network’s full stablecoin proviso much than doubled successful aboriginal 2025, climbing from $5.2 cardinal successful January to $11.7 cardinal successful February.
Even so, Ethereum inactive carried the bulk of worth moved by stablecoins year-to-date — astir 60% arsenic of mid-2025 — showing Solana’s gains are meaningful but not yet dominant.
Cost and velocity stay cardinal draws: Sub-cent fees, 400-millisecond artifact times and precocious throughput person made Solana a hub for decentralized speech (DEX) and perpetual futures enactment — and a focal constituent of 2025’s memecoin boom. That measurement supports liquidity but besides concentrates flows successful speculative segments.
Two structural risks are worthy watching.
Reliability: A five-hour outage connected Feb. 6, 2024, required a coordinated restart and lawsuit spot (v1.17.20).
Regulation: Past US SEC complaints person referenced Solana arsenic an unregistered information — a characterization the Solana Foundation disputes. Outcomes successful this country stay highly policy-dependent.
Did you know? CME plans daily, monthly and quarterly expiries for SOL options, expanding hedging menus for ETF marketplace makers.
What a US SOL ETF would apt change
Access and flows: Approval would unfastened SOL to mainstream brokerage and status channels utilized by registered concern advisers (RIAs). That reduces operational friction for allocators and broadens the purchaser basal beyond crypto-native venues.
Market-making and hedging: Listed derivatives springiness authorized participants (APs) and marketplace makers the tools to hedge creations and redemptions, arsenic good arsenic to tally ground oregon relative-value trades. These mechanics assistance support ETF prices adjacent to their NAV and enactment day-one liquidity.
Regulatory runway: The SEC’s “generic listing standards” widen the way beyond BTC and ETH if sponsors fulfill the rules.
Ex-US request signals: Already, Canada’s 3iQ Solana Staking ETF (TSX: SOLQ) and Europe’s 21Shares Solana Staking ETP (SIX: ASOL) amusement that regulated concern wrappers for Solana tin pull capitalist interest.
Did you know? In Europe, cryptocurrencies cannot beryllium included successful Undertakings for Collective Investment successful Transferable Securities (UCITS) ETFs, truthful issuers usage ETPs instead. That is wherefore “ETP” appears connected SIX and London Stock Exchange (LSE) tickers.
Can SOL really outperform ETH?
The bull lawsuit (six to 12 months post-approval)
A timely US spot SOL ETF with beardown aboriginal nett creations could outpace Ether connected full return.
Two cardinal levers:
Broader access: RIAs and brokerages summation vulnerability nether the caller generic listing standards.
Improved marketplace mechanics: Tighter spreads and greater capableness arsenic APs hedge via CME Solana futures and listed options.
The basal case
Even if a SOL ETF launches strongly, flows whitethorn revert to tracking wide hazard appetite. Ether retains a structural organization borderline — acknowledgment to its longer history, deeper allocator familiarity and established ecosystem. Weekly money travel fluctuations successful crypto bespeak however comparative show whitethorn beryllium choppy alternatively than decisively tilted toward SOL.
The carnivore case
Timelines slipping oregon eligibility questions nether the US SEC model could dampen expectations. Alternatively, liquidity whitethorn soften, and APs could tally smaller books contempt the availability of derivatives, limiting creations. In that scenario, Solana would underperform Ether, which already benefits from a much mature distribution.
It is besides worthy noting that immoderate regulators person expressed concerns astir reduced case-by-case scrutiny nether the generic listing standards, adding argumentation uncertainty for assets beyond Bitcoin and Ether.
What to support an oculus on
If a US spot SOL ETF is approved, the existent communicative could beryllium what happens next.
The cardinal signals to ticker are straightforward. Do creations and redemptions amusement persistent demand? Does CME unfastened involvement and options enactment deepen liquidity? Do onchain metrics similar progressive users, interest revenue, stablecoin colony and developer maturation clasp up beyond speculative bursts? If those needles determination together, the likelihood of SOL outpacing ETH emergence sharply.
A Solana ETF would remove a large entree bottleneck and get with stronger marketplace infrastructure than past cycles. Yet Ether has already proven it tin pull billions done ETFs portion anchoring the organization conversation.
ETH remains the benchmark, and its flows — though cyclical — show its staying power. Whether Solana genuinely outperforms volition beryllium little connected hype and much connected whether ETF inflows construe into sustained onchain adoption.
This nonfiction does not incorporate concern proposal oregon recommendations. Every concern and trading determination involves risk, and readers should behaviour their ain probe erstwhile making a decision.
English (US) 