2 hours ago
Crypto bettors connected blockchain-based prediction level Polymarket are actively trading connected the result of HBO’s upcoming documentary that claims to uncover the individuality of Bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto.
According to the platform’s data, the marketplace “Who volition HBO doc place arsenic Satoshi?” has rapidly go 1 of Polymarket’s apical 10 most-traded markets for the month.
Despite being unrecorded for little than a week, regular commercialized measurement has already reached $2.5 million, attracting 1,778 users arsenic of Oct. 7, based connected figures from Dune Analytics.
In addition, Polymarket’s information indicates that important bets are being placed, with the excavation amassing much than $15 cardinal successful wagers.
However, arsenic speculation intensifies astir the documentary’s claims, crypto bettors stay divided astir who volition beryllium identified arsenic Bitcoin’s elusive creator.
The platform’s information shows that bettors are focusing connected respective cardinal figures, including Nick Szabo, Len Sassaman, Adam Back, David Kleiman, and Hal Finney. Each of these individuals has notable likelihood of being revealed arsenic Nakamoto.
Bitcoin Creator Odds. (Source: Polymarket)The HBO documentary is scheduled to aerial connected Oct. 9 astatine 2:00 A.M. UTC.
Sassaman’s likelihood autumn beneath 10%
When the marketplace opened connected Oct. 4, Len Sassaman led with likelihood arsenic precocious arsenic 68%. At the time, galore bettors pointed to his cryptographic expertise, usage of British English, and connections to the precocious Hal Finney, an aboriginal Bitcoin idiosyncratic and different imaginable Satoshi candidate.
In addition, Sassaman’s enactment connected privateness technologies, which intimately reflector Bitcoin’s design, further fueled these speculations.
However, his likelihood person since plunged pursuing comments by the documentary’s director, Cullen Hoback, suggesting that Satoshi Nakamoto whitethorn inactive beryllium alive. Due to this, immoderate bettors ruled retired Sassaman, who passed distant successful 2011.
Sassaman’s widow, Meredith Patterson, besides reportedly revealed that HBO ne'er contacted her for the documentary, adding to the skepticism. His adjacent friend, erstwhile roommate, and creator of Chia, Bram Cohen, further formed doubt, stating that Sassaman lacked the method skills to make Bitcoin. However, successful a caller podcast, helium alluded to the anticipation of Satoshi being a collaboration betwixt Finney and Sassaman, stating Finney had the method quality and Sassman the penning skills.
Despite this, immoderate bettors inactive see Sassaman a imaginable candidate, though his likelihood person present fallen beneath 10%.
Szabo takes the lead
While Sassaman’s likelihood person diminished, galore bettors present judge Satoshi could beryllium Nick Szabo, an American machine scientist.
Szabo, who developed the Bitcoin precursor BitGold, presently holds 13.2% of the betting odds. BitGold ne'er officially launched, but galore spot it arsenic an influential precursor to Bitcoin. Its plan included peer-to-peer networking, proof-of-work mining, and cryptography—concepts aboriginal incorporated into Bitcoin.
This transportation often places Szabo astatine the halfway of discussions astir Satoshi Nakamoto. However, Szabo has consistently denied being the mysterious creator of Bitcoin.
The station Chia laminitis alludes to Finney, Sassaman collab arsenic Nick Szabo leads Polymarket bets for HBO Satoshi doc appeared archetypal connected CryptoSlate.
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