Coinbase Revenue, Trading Outlook Hit by Tariff Tensions: Oppenheimer

Crypto speech Coinbase (COIN) is facing a weaker outlook arsenic uncertainties introduced by President Donald Trump’s on-and-off tariff threats formed a shadiness implicit retail crypto activity, analysts astatine Oppenheimer wrote successful a report.

The concern slope chopped its full-year trading measurement forecast by 19% to $1.3 trillion and its first-quarter estimation to $380 billion, down 13% from the erstwhile 4th arsenic the appetite for hazard declined.

Despite a mostly much supportive code from Washington — with pro-crypto signals from the White House, Congress and regulators — the analysts said the marketplace hasn't afloat embraced the shift.

“Since the election, we person seen the astir pro-crypto President, Administration, Congress, regulators, enforcement orders, and SEC statements, that are meant to awesome to the satellite that the US is unfastened for blockchain businesses to pull capital, projects, and talents,” expert Owen Lau wrote. “During the process for the nationalist to judge successful specified a day-and-night move, it's unfortunate to spot Trump's on-and-off again tariffs person driven carnivore marketplace concern, recession fear, and pullback of retail trading,”

Coinbase banal has fallen 30% this year, underperforming bitcoin (BTC) and the S&P 500, which are down 10% and 8%, respectively. While those numbers people an betterment from the 2022 downturn — erstwhile COIN dropped 86% — they inactive item the platform’s sensitivity to broader macro signals.

Oppenheimer besides lowered its 2025 and 2026 forecasts for gross and net and chopped its shares terms people to $279 from $388, saying that retail information whitethorn stay subdued during the argumentation uncertainty. It has an outperform standing connected the shares, which fell 1.2% to $173.39 connected Wednesday.

One upside: marketplace share. Coinbase accounted for 69% of U.S. spot crypto trading measurement successful February, gaining crushed against rivals similar Robinhood (HOOD). Maintaining that pb volition beryllium connected whether the marketplace tin shingle disconnected tariff jitters and regain momentum.

Oppenheimer said contempt the near-term hurdles, it remains optimistic astir Coinbase’s semipermanent potential.

“As a focused person successful crypto with optionality successful tokenization and payments usage cases, we judge COIN tin bid a premium. In our view, COIN is simply a beardown rebound banal if/when tariff tensions deescalate,” Lau wrote.

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